POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · ECONOMICS

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

YES · live
99.6¢
NO · live
0.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-fed-pausepausepause-in-the-next-three-decisions-maraprjun · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
11.72%
max drawdown
0.20%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.12%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.09%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.20%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.91
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.91
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1436
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-fed-pausepausepause-in-the-next-three-decisions-maraprjun/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
99.6¢
NO · live
0.4¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.9958 · σ=0.0007 · range [0.9940, 0.9970] · R²=0.100▲ RISING +0.20%σ LOW 0.07%LAST 0.99600.99700.99620.99550.99480.9940μ = 0.9958max 0.9970min 0.9940dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 99.60¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 99.6%NO 0.4%YES99.6%99.60¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.038 / 1.00 bits (4%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
99.6%99.6¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
0.4%0.4¢250.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=120 · μ=5.0 · σ=5.7 · CV=1.14BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1105101520μ = 52050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 120bp moved · peak 20bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
9ms
▲YES mid
99.60¢ (99.60%)
▼NO mid
0.40¢ (0.40%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$65.6k
≋liquidity $
$29.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9958 · σ=0.0007 · range [0.9940, 0.9970] · R²=0.100▲ RISING +0.20%σ LOW 0.07%LAST 0.99600.99700.99620.99550.99480.9940μ = 0.9958max 0.9970min 0.9940dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.60¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0042 · σ=0.0007 · range [0.0030, 0.0060] · R²=0.100▼ FALLING -33.33%σ EXTREME 16.52%LAST 0.00400.00600.00530.00450.00370.0030μ = 0.0042max 0.0060min 0.0030dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.40¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0007 · skew=0.62 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.15 (mesokurtic)1186304-0.09ppbin -0.09pp · n=4 · 36.4% peakbin -0.09pp · n=4 · 36.4% peak2-0.06ppbin -0.06pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin -0.06pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak-0.03pp110.00ppbin 0.00pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 0.00pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak10.04ppbin 0.04pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 0.04pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak20.07ppbin 0.07pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin 0.07pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak20.10ppbin 0.10pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin 0.10pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak0.13pp10.16ppbin 0.16pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 0.16pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak10.19ppbin 0.19pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 0.19pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.62 · kurt=0.34 · near 14 / mid 10 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.64)
μ MEAN99.58¢95% CI: [99.55¢, 99.61¢]
σ STD DEV0.07ppσ² = 47.667×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.07%
med MEDIAN99.60¢Q₁ 99.55¢ · Q₃ 99.65¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.30pp · IQR 0.10pp (1.349σ→0.09pp)
min 99.40¢Q₁ 99.55¢med 99.60¢Q₃ 99.65¢max 99.70¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.644left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.096mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.26
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.93
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.35
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.285within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.065lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.865strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.596fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.865
H = 0.865STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.285k=2+0.065k=3-0.127k=4+0.060k=5-0.0530+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.60)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.60)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1288247
SLUGwill-the-fed-pau…ns-maraprjun
CATEGORYEconomics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES99.60¢implied prob 99.60% · decimal odds 1.00×
COUNTER · NO0.40¢implied prob 0.40% · decimal odds 250.00×
99.60¢
0.40¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME65.60k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY29.53k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.992 · entropy 0.038 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 99.6%NO 0.4%YES p̂99.6%H = 0.038 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.00×(100¢)NO250.00×(0¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.038 bits (4% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · MEDIUMresolves 2026-06-17 00:00 UTC
2days
10hrs
25min
2.43 days·θ = 0.338 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 99.6%)
NO →$0.00(P = 0.4%)
current: $0.9960 · expected return per side: $0.00 on YES hit · $1.00 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.07% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.338 pp/day
now2.43d left
0.338 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.83d left
0.391 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.22d left
0.478 pp/day×1.41
−75%14.61h left
0.676 pp/day×2.00
−90%5.84h left
1.070 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.20% · worst -0.10% · typical |Δ| 0.05%MILD BULLISH +0.20%BEST+0.20%22hWORST-0.10%8hTYPICAL |Δ|0.05%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.20%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.20%+0.30%0.00%0.15% · 1h0.15% · 1h0.15%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.05% · 3h0.05% · 3h0.05%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.05% · 5h0.05% · 5h0.05%5h-0.05% · 6h-0.05% · 6h-0.05%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-0.10% · 8h-0.10% · 8h-0.10%8h▼ WORST0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.10% · 10h0.10% · 10h0.10%10h-0.10% · 11h-0.10% · 11h-0.10%11h0.10% · 12h0.10% · 12h0.10%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.05% · 14h0.05% · 14h0.05%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-0.10% · 19h-0.10% · 19h-0.10%19h-0.05% · 20h-0.05% · 20h-0.05%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.20% · 22h0.20% · 22h0.20%22h★ BEST-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH29% up · 25% down · 46% flat
7 up bars · 6 down · best 0.20% · worst -0.10% · typical |Δ| 0.050%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.20%FINAL+0.20%MAX DD-0.15%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.30%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0020 · peak 1.0030 · range [1.0000, 1.0030]1.00301.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0030UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.15% · shallow0%-0.15%▼ TROUGH -0.15%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -0.15%bar 7-22 · 16 bars · recovered#2 -0.10%bar 24-25 · 2 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.15%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0020 (0.20%) · max DD -0.15% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −8 (42% positive) · μ=1.34 · σ=31.46MIXED EDGELAST -7.00 (-0.27σ vs μ)55.9327.970.00-27.97-55.93μ = 1.3445.6745.6720.7220.72-13.34-13.34-30.21-30.210.000.00-30.86-30.860.000.000.000.0030.8630.8630.8630.8611.7411.7455.9355.9338.2138.21-15.87-15.87-55.93-55.93-55.93-55.937.647.64-7.00-7.00-7.00-7.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -7.000 · range [-55.93, 55.93] · μ 1.341 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=6.3033 · σ=2.4158 · range [1.9105, 10.4293] · R²=0.064▲ RISING +63.12%σ EXTREME 38.33%LAST 10.429310.42938.29966.16994.04021.9105μ = 6.3033max 10.4293min 1.9105dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.06μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 10.43% · range [1.91%, 10.43%] · μ 6.30% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.277 · σ=0.274MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.236 (+0.15σ vs μ)0.8040.4020.000-0.402-0.804μ = -0.277-0.298-0.298-0.422-0.422-0.150-0.150-0.333-0.333-0.100-0.100-0.370-0.370-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.804-0.804-0.761-0.761-0.513-0.513-0.214-0.214-0.233-0.233-0.006-0.0060.2140.2140.0710.0710.1190.119-0.236-0.236-0.236-0.236v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.236 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
2.2762
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3204
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.0011
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7024
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-4.3395
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0007
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3140
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7535
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2164
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3281
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3722
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1700
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.582 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.71e-7 · top T=4.00h (19.8%) · top-3 cover 55.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.4e-61.0e-66.8e-73.4e-70.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.74e-8 · 1.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.74e-8 · 1.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.56e-7 · 12.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.56e-7 · 12.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.55e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.55e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.19e-7 · 3.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.19e-7 · 3.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.29e-7 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.29e-7 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.35e-6 · 19.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.35e-6 · 19.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.43e-7 · 3.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.43e-7 · 3.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.14e-6 · 16.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.14e-6 · 16.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.50e-7 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.50e-7 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.29e-6 · 18.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.29e-6 · 18.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.90e-7 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.90e-7 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 5.5% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 19.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.854e-6

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1436 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 2.4 d · σ/bar 0.009pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.07ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0040 · n = 1436✓ n = 1436
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.009pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.04pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move2d
0.07pp
σ × √58.421036666666666
Terminal variancebinary
0.0040
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
99.6¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 1436
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.02pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.2pp
peak 99.7¢ → trough 99.5¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
99.6%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.004
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-24900
risk $24900 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$0.40
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 99.6%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.038 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.038 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.01 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
7.97 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
20406088295148041354511902187460580898649001043708657022935679954014777896442
NO token ID
5947152633958428225726221406069265322968490146384769445179056860842404411201
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 13:34:44 UTC
Snapshot age
9ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 13:34:44 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0ad2df4a38b00b2c0cf7338b20e05b7e9dfc8a703a7c1c2dcefd313ba114aded · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.2¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?12¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,221.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.45HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.83

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Economics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$367.19K
bid $194 · ask $366.99K
Mid price
0.996000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
20.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.936
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.982
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-the-fed-pausepausepause-in-the-next-three-decisions-maraprjun/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.99700010.04bp0.9970001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.99787018.78bp0.9980002FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.99866126.72bp0.9990003FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.99142445.95bp0.9900005FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.980327157.36bp0.92500011FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0024729975.18bp0.00100056PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,436 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
11.77%
σ per bar = 0.000089
Mean return (annualised)
-61.31%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-5.21
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.20%
peak 1.00 → trough 0.99 over 133 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-the-fed-pausepausepause-in-the-next-three-decisions-maraprjun/risk · same metrics, JSON