TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

No topic cluster found for this market. It either sits alone in its semantic neighborhood or shares fewer keywords with peers than the threshold (τ = 0.22 cosine similarity over TF-IDF).

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-fed-pausepausepause-in-the-next-three-decisions-maraprjun · fresh · feed 0s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —

realized vol (ann.)

10.08%

max drawdown

0.20%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

0.12%

RMS drawdown

pain index

0.09%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

0.20%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

0.91

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

0.91

upside/downside

roll spread

0.0 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

1941

store

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-fed-pausepausepause-in-the-next-three-decisions-maraprjun/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →