POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · ECONOMICS

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

YES · live
2.1¢
NO · live
97.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-664 · fresh · feed 16s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
98.52%
max drawdown
38.10%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
12.86%
RMS drawdown
pain index
8.32%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
38.10%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
306
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-664/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING16.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.1¢
NO · live
97.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0095 · σ=0.0045 · range [0.0055, 0.0215] · R²=0.500▲ RISING +290.91%σ EXTREME 47.38%LAST 0.02150.02150.01750.01350.00950.0055μ = 0.0095max 0.0215min 0.0055dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.15¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.1%NO 97.9%NO97.9%97.90¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.147 / 1.00 bits (15%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.1%2.1¢47.62×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.9%97.9¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=390 · μ=16.3 · σ=30.2 · CV=1.86BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2103468101135μ = 1613550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 390bp moved · peak 135bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
16.3s
▲YES mid
2.10¢ (2.10%)
▼NO mid
97.90¢ (97.90%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$30.3k
≋liquidity $
$62.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0095 · σ=0.0045 · range [0.0055, 0.0215] · R²=0.500▲ RISING +290.91%σ EXTREME 47.38%LAST 0.02150.02150.01750.01350.00950.0055μ = 0.0095max 0.0215min 0.0055dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.15¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9905 · σ=0.0045 · range [0.9785, 0.9945] · R²=0.500▼ FALLING -1.61%σ LOW 0.46%LAST 0.97850.99450.99050.98650.98250.9785μ = 0.9905max 0.9945min 0.9785dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.85¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0032 · skew=2.45 (right-skewed) · kurt=6.46 (leptokurtic (fat tails))16128401-0.41ppbin -0.41pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin -0.41pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak2-0.22ppbin -0.22pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakbin -0.22pp · n=2 · 12.5% peak16-0.04ppbin -0.04pp · n=16 · 100.0% peakbin -0.04pp · n=16 · 100.0% peak20.15ppbin 0.15pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakbin 0.15pp · n=2 · 12.5% peak10.33ppbin 0.33pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 0.33pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak0.52pp10.70ppbin 0.70pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 0.70pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak0.89pp1.07pp11.26ppbin 1.26pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 1.26pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.41 · kurt=7.32 · near 7 / mid 16 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.83 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.85σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.61)
μ MEAN0.95¢95% CI: [0.78¢, 1.13¢]
σ STD DEV0.45ppσ² = 0.203 · CV = 47.38%
med MEDIAN0.80¢Q₁ 0.70¢ · Q₃ 0.85¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.60pp · IQR 0.15pp (1.349σ→0.61pp)
min 0.55¢Q₁ 0.70¢med 0.80¢Q₃ 0.85¢max 2.15¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.609right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.426leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 4.06
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.55
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.471negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.158lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.665persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.798significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.665
H = 0.665PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.471k=2+0.158k=3-0.187k=4+0.322k=5-0.1570+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.80)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.80very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.80)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2252246
SLUGwill-the-fed-inc…-meeting-664
CATEGORYEconomics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.10¢implied prob 2.10% · decimal odds 47.62×
COUNTER · NO97.90¢implied prob 97.90% · decimal odds 1.02×
2.10¢
97.90¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME30.31k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY62.48k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.958 · entropy 0.147 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.1%NO 97.9%YES p̂2.1%H = 0.147 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES47.62×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.147 bits (15% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-09-16 00:00 UTC
89days
09hrs
36min
89.40 days·θ = 2.210 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 97.9%)
current: $0.0210 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+44.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.45% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.210 pp/day
now89.40d left
2.210 pp/day×1.00
−25%67.05d left
2.551 pp/day×1.15
−50%44.70d left
3.125 pp/day×1.41
−75%22.35d left
4.419 pp/day×2.00
−90%8.94d left
6.987 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.35% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.16%MILD BULLISH +1.60%BEST+1.35%22hWORST-0.50%21hTYPICAL |Δ|0.16%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+1.60%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.04% · Σ +0.30%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.15%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.15%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +1.60%+1.60%0.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.10% · 2h0.10% · 2h0.10%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.05% · 4h0.05% · 4h0.05%4h0.10% · 5h0.10% · 5h0.10%5h0.05% · 6h0.05% · 6h0.05%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.10% · 9h-0.10% · 9h-0.10%9h0.05% · 10h0.05% · 10h0.05%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.05% · 12h0.05% · 12h0.05%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-0.05% · 14h-0.05% · 14h-0.05%14h-0.10% · 15h-0.10% · 15h-0.10%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h-0.15% · 17h-0.15% · 17h-0.15%17h0.65% · 18h0.65% · 18h0.65%18h0.05% · 19h0.05% · 19h0.05%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.50% · 21h-0.50% · 21h-0.50%21h▼ WORST1.35% · 22h1.35% · 22h1.35%22h★ BEST-0.25% · 23h-0.25% · 23h-0.25%23h0.30% · 24h0.30% · 24h0.30%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.15%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH42% up · 25% down · 33% flat
10 up bars · 6 down · best 1.35% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.163%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.60%FINAL+1.60%MAX DD-0.50%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+1.60%UNDERWATER11/25 (44%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0160 · peak 1.0160 · range [1.0000, 1.0160]1.01601.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0160UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.50% · shallow0%-0.50%▼ TROUGH -0.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -0.50%bar 22-22 · 1 bars · recovered#2 -0.30%bar 10-18 · 9 bars · recovered#3 -0.25%bar 24-24 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.50%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER44% of session · 11/25 bars
final equity 1.0160 (1.60%) · max DD -0.50% · time-under-water 11/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −4 (63% positive) · μ=19.65 · σ=40.43MIXED EDGELAST 22.99 (+0.08σ vs μ)104.6452.320.00-52.32-104.64μ = 19.65104.64104.64104.64104.6476.4276.4222.8322.8322.8322.830.000.000.000.000.000.00-13.34-13.34-13.34-13.34-30.21-30.21-52.99-52.9918.4718.4721.2021.2024.1124.112.092.0932.9732.9730.0430.0422.9922.99v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 22.992 · range [-52.99, 104.64] · μ 19.651 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=19.2598 · σ=21.4154 · range [3.8210, 63.1794] · R²=0.704▲ RISING +1341.21%σ EXTREME 111.19%LAST 60.324563.179448.339833.500218.66063.8210μ = 19.2598max 63.1794min 3.8210dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.70μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 60.32% · range [3.82%, 63.18%] · μ 19.26% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.171 · σ=0.279MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.581 (-1.47σ vs μ)0.5810.2910.000-0.291-0.581μ = -0.171-0.500-0.500-0.250-0.2500.2670.2670.3100.3100.0240.024-0.333-0.333-0.333-0.333-0.333-0.333-0.248-0.2480.2890.2890.2290.229-0.110-0.110-0.179-0.179-0.210-0.210-0.264-0.264-0.100-0.100-0.383-0.383-0.536-0.536-0.581-0.581v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.581 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
115.1571
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
11.8222
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0370
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.0419
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7363
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.2774
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7815
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6176
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0210
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.5990
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1098
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.513 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.30e-5 · top T=2.00h (32.6%) · top-3 cover 59.3%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)5.1e-53.8e-52.6e-51.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.68e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.68e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.34e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.34e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.10e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.10e-7 · 0.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.64e-6 · 4.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.64e-6 · 4.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.04e-6 · 5.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.04e-6 · 5.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.33e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.33e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.40e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.40e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.89e-6 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.89e-6 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.26e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.26e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.34e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.34e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.78e-5 · 17.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.78e-5 · 17.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.10e-5 · 32.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.10e-5 · 32.6% energy50% by T=2.2h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 32.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.564e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (306 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 89.4 d · σ/bar 0.074pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.45ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0206 · n = 306✓ n = 306
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.074pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.36pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move89d
3.45pp
σ × √2145.6124508333332
Terminal variancebinary
0.0206
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.12pp · ES₉₅ 0.15pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.03✓ n = 306
VaR 95%
0.12pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.15pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
38.1pp
peak 2.1¢ → trough 1.3¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
47.619
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+4662
$100 wins $4662
FractionalUK
46.62 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$4661.90
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.147 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.147 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.57 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
88912926533493988427719291698947688154042720958310632316541141466409683822293
NO token ID
74195220586129237349258803179082634542284503538320000637909015632982564961602
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 14:22:58 UTC
Snapshot age
16.3s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 14:23:15 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0e125c0532d975cc5dd52cce4b1b189adbac994a4ba16a8db40b2cceb02ae4d1 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain91.1¢HL PREDBrazil88.1¢HL PREDEcuador87.1¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?54¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,957HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.43HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,738.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Economics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.022500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4888.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.547
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.381
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-664/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.11746242205.22bp0.56200021FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.419468176430.13bp0.67000030FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.828366358162.58bp0.97000050FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0041618150.65bp0.0040009FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0023358962.39bp0.00100012FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0020089107.68bp0.00100012PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 306 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
5711.66%
σ per bar = 0.043145
Mean return (annualised)
-0.00%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
38.10%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 17 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-664/risk · same metrics, JSON