POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
6.2¢
NO · live
93.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-democratic-republic-of-congo-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 7s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
105.69%
max drawdown
44.66%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
9.16%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.83%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
17.58%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.15
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.15
upside/downside
roll spread
1.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-democratic-republic-of-congo-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
6.2¢
NO · live
93.8¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0563 · σ=0.0192 · range [0.0220, 0.0815] · R²=0.171▲ RISING +179.55%σ EXTREME 34.19%LAST 0.06150.08150.06660.05180.03690.0220μ = 0.0563max 0.0815min 0.0220dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.17μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 6.15¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 6.2%NO 93.8%NO93.8%93.85¢ · odds 1/1.07
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.333 / 1.00 bits (33%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
6.2%6.2¢16.26×▬ +0.00pp
NO
93.8%93.8¢1.07×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,335 · μ=55.6 · σ=76.9 · CV=1.38BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=7080160240320μ = 5632050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1335bp moved · peak 320bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6.8s
▲YES mid
6.15¢ (6.15%)
▼NO mid
93.85¢ (93.85%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$35.3k
≋liquidity $
$79.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0563 · σ=0.0192 · range [0.0220, 0.0815] · R²=0.171▲ RISING +179.55%σ EXTREME 34.19%LAST 0.06150.08150.06660.05180.03690.0220μ = 0.0563max 0.0815min 0.0220dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.17μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 6.15¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9437 · σ=0.0192 · range [0.9185, 0.9780] · R²=0.171▼ FALLING -4.04%σ NORMAL 2.04%LAST 0.93850.97800.96310.94830.93340.9185μ = 0.9437max 0.9780min 0.9185dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.17μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 93.85¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0017 · σ=0.0087 · skew=1.42 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.95 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085301-1.41ppbin -1.41pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -1.41pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak1-0.92ppbin -0.92pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.92pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak5-0.44ppbin -0.44pp · n=5 · 50.0% peakbin -0.44pp · n=5 · 50.0% peak100.05ppbin 0.05pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.05pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak40.53ppbin 0.53pp · n=4 · 40.0% peakbin 0.53pp · n=4 · 40.0% peak11.02ppbin 1.02pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 1.02pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak1.50pp11.99ppbin 1.99pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 1.99pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak2.47pp12.96ppbin 2.96pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 2.96pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.42 · kurt=3.44 · near 11 / mid 12 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.93 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.55)
μ MEAN5.63¢95% CI: [4.87¢, 6.38¢]
σ STD DEV1.92ppσ² = 3.701 · CV = 34.19%
med MEDIAN5.85¢Q₁ 5.20¢ · Q₃ 6.35¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 5.95pp · IQR 1.15pp (1.349σ→2.60pp)
min 2.20¢Q₁ 5.20¢med 5.85¢Q₃ 6.35¢max 8.15¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.549left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.770mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.26
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.09
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.297within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.081lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.040strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.180significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.040
H = 1.040STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.297k=2+0.081k=3+0.020k=4-0.090k=5-0.0410+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.18)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.18)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID840172
SLUGwill-the-democra…fa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (94¢)
PRIMARY · YES6.15¢implied prob 6.15% · decimal odds 16.26×
COUNTER · NO93.85¢implied prob 93.85% · decimal odds 1.07×
6.15¢
93.85¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME35.26k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY79.65k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (94¢)|primary − counter| = 0.877 · entropy 0.333 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 6.2%NO 93.8%YES p̂6.2%H = 0.333 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES16.26×(6¢)NO1.07×(94¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.333 bits (33% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-27 00:00 UTC
8days
10hrs
51min
8.45 days·θ = 9.424 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 6.2%)
NO →$0.00(P = 93.8%)
current: $0.0615 · expected return per side: $0.94 on YES hit · $0.06 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+4.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.92% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 9.424 pp/day
now8.45d left
9.424 pp/day×1.00
−25%6.34d left
10.882 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.23d left
13.328 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.11d left
18.848 pp/day×2.00
−90%20.29h left
29.802 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.20% · worst -1.65% · typical |Δ| 0.56%MILD BULLISH +3.95%BEST+3.20%5hWORST-1.65%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.56%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+3.95%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.85% · Σ +5.95%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.37% · Σ -2.95%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +0.95%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +3.95%+5.95%0.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.65% · 3h0.65% · 3h0.65%3h-0.45% · 4h-0.45% · 4h-0.45%4h3.20% · 5h3.20% · 5h3.20%5h★ BEST2.05% · 6h2.05% · 6h2.05%6h0.50% · 7h0.50% · 7h0.50%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.10% · 9h-0.10% · 9h-0.10%9h-0.20% · 10h-0.20% · 10h-0.20%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-1.65% · 12h-1.65% · 12h-1.65%12h▼ WORST-1.05% · 13h-1.05% · 13h-1.05%13h0.50% · 14h0.50% · 14h0.50%14h-0.45% · 15h-0.45% · 15h-0.45%15h0.65% · 16h0.65% · 16h0.65%16h-0.15% · 17h-0.15% · 17h-0.15%17h-0.45% · 18h-0.45% · 18h-0.45%18h0.10% · 19h0.10% · 19h0.10%19h0.80% · 20h0.80% · 20h0.80%20h0.20% · 21h0.20% · 21h0.20%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h-0.20% · 23h-0.20% · 23h-0.20%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+5.95%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH38% up · 38% down · 25% flat
9 up bars · 9 down · best 3.20% · worst -1.65% · typical |Δ| 0.556%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +3.92%FINAL+3.92%MAX DD-2.97%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+6.05%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0392 · peak 1.0605 · range [1.0000, 1.0605]1.06051.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0605UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.97% · moderate0%-2.97%▼ TROUGH -2.97%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.97%bar 10-25 · 16 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.45%bar 5-5 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.97%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 1.0392 (3.92%) · max DD -2.97% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=9.80 · σ=45.91MIXED EDGELAST 40.70 (+0.67σ vs μ)67.9033.950.00-33.95-67.90μ = 9.8059.7759.7767.6367.6367.6367.6356.2556.2560.7560.7541.0341.03-30.94-30.94-67.90-67.90-49.66-49.66-57.74-57.74-34.74-34.74-37.72-37.72-23.13-23.136.646.6414.4414.4437.9537.9518.6618.6616.5616.5640.7040.70v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 40.698 · range [-67.90, 67.63] · μ 9.798 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=78.5054 · σ=35.7635 · range [32.2868, 134.9736] · R²=0.836▼ FALLING -75.75%σ EXTREME 45.56%LAST 32.2868134.9736109.301983.630257.958532.2868μ = 78.5054max 134.9736min 32.2868dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.84μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 32.29% · range [32.29%, 134.97%] · μ 78.51% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=0.006 · σ=0.238CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.164 (+0.66σ vs μ)0.5260.2630.000-0.263-0.526μ = 0.0060.0900.090-0.057-0.057-0.041-0.0410.0390.0390.4650.4650.2270.227-0.042-0.0420.2220.222-0.050-0.050-0.097-0.097-0.075-0.0750.0860.086-0.492-0.492-0.526-0.526-0.210-0.2100.0630.0630.2310.2310.1190.1190.1640.164v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.164 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
30.1105
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.9023
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7176
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9295
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3288
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2617
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2490
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.9031
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0570
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.579 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.53e-5 · top T=12.00h (25.5%) · top-3 cover 59.5%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.6e-42.0e-41.3e-46.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.65e-4 · 16.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.65e-4 · 16.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.60e-4 · 25.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.60e-4 · 25.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.19e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.19e-5 · 8.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.27e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.27e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.83e-4 · 17.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.83e-4 · 17.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.65e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.65e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.03e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.03e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.68e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.68e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.82e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.82e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.48e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.48e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.43e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 7.43e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.76e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.76e-6 · 0.9% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=12.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=24.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 12.00h (freq 0.083) · concentrates 25.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.023e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3447 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 8.5 d · σ/bar 0.064pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.91ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0577 · n = 3447✓ n = 3447
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.064pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.31pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move8d
0.91pp
σ × √202.85127972222222
Terminal variancebinary
0.0577
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
6.2¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.11pp · ES₉₅ 0.13pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3447
VaR 95%
0.11pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.13pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
65.0pp
peak 8.2¢ → trough 2.9¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
6.2%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
16.260
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1526
$100 wins $1526
FractionalUK
15.26 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1526.02
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 6.2%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.333 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.333 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.02 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.09 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
83735225718772529626222453758023253699050591147484336983600542757792786332719
NO token ID
105786121747891327800633879530647189660758582629852873544012829465029304891767
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 13:08:48 UTC
Snapshot age
6.8s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 13:08:55 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e970bdc1f2be9447f4a424c0b0c271e42ca0b825422c5ef25975b0dbfab19ce4 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain89.3¢HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDEcuador87.1¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?53¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,373HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.63HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,748.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.061500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
162.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.982
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.442
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-the-democratic-republic-of-congo-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0706511488.05bp0.0710007FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.13238311525.62bp0.69900041FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.57688983803.13bp0.95900054FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0337294515.58bp0.02200012FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0226196322.16bp0.00100017PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0226196322.16bp0.00100017PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,447 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1890.89%
σ per bar = 0.014284
Mean return (annualised)
-10430.46%
μ per bar = -0.000060
Sharpe (rf=0)
-5.52
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
65.03%
peak 0.08 → trough 0.03 over 1238 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-the-democratic-republic-of-congo-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON