POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WHO WILL ATTEND THE NEXT US X IRAN DIPLOMATIC MEETING?

Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

YES · live
73.5¢
NO · live
26.6¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-steve-witkoff-attend-the-next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting · fresh · feed 17s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
252.06%
max drawdown
11.05%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
6.38%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.93%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.10%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
10.86%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.73
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.73
upside/downside
roll spread
1.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
901
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-steve-witkoff-attend-the-next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING17.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
73.5¢
NO · live
26.6¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.5807 · σ=0.1778 · range [0.3640, 0.7675] · R²=0.712▲ RISING +75.92%σ EXTREME 30.61%LAST 0.73800.76750.66660.56570.46490.3640μ = 0.5807max 0.7675min 0.3640dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.71μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 73.80¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 73.5%NO 26.6%YES73.5%73.45¢ · odds 1/1.36
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.835 / 1.00 bits (83%) · high uncertainty
YES
73.5%73.5¢1.36×▬ +0.00pp
NO
26.6%26.6¢3.77×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=7,545 · μ=314.4 · σ=689.8 · CV=2.19BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1108641,7282,5913,455μ = 3143,45550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 7545bp moved · peak 3455bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
17.4s
▲YES mid
73.45¢ (73.45%)
▼NO mid
26.55¢ (26.55%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$20.5k
≋liquidity $
$15.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5807 · σ=0.1778 · range [0.3640, 0.7675] · R²=0.712▲ RISING +75.92%σ EXTREME 30.61%LAST 0.73800.76750.66660.56570.46490.3640μ = 0.5807max 0.7675min 0.3640dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.71μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 73.80¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4193 · σ=0.1777 · range [0.2325, 0.6360] · R²=0.711▼ FALLING -54.87%σ EXTREME 42.39%LAST 0.26200.63600.53510.43430.33340.2325μ = 0.4193max 0.6360min 0.2325dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.71μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 26.20¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0156 · σ=0.0697 · skew=3.61 (right-skewed) · kurt=13.45 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1186309-2.69ppbin -2.69pp · n=9 · 81.8% peakbin -2.69pp · n=9 · 81.8% peak111.23ppbin 1.23pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 1.23pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak35.15ppbin 5.15pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin 5.15pp · n=3 · 27.3% peak9.07pp12.99pp16.91pp20.83pp24.75pp28.67pp132.59ppbin 32.59pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 32.59pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=3.82 · kurt=14.65 · near 7 / mid 15 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.71 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.50σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.97)
μ MEAN58.07¢95% CI: [51.11¢, 65.04¢]
σ STD DEV17.78ppσ² = 315.971 · CV = 30.61%
med MEDIAN69.70¢Q₁ 37.75¢ · Q₃ 74.10¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 40.35pp · IQR 36.35pp (1.349σ→23.98pp)
min 36.40¢Q₁ 37.75¢med 69.70¢Q₃ 74.10¢max 76.75¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.201approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.966platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.65
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.66
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.27
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.20 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.205within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.069lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.132strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+7.534significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.132
H = 1.132STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.205k=2+0.069k=3+0.095k=4-0.034k=5-0.0450+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.53)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.20 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.53)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1986508
SLUGwill-steve-witko…atic-meeting
CATEGORYWho will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (73¢)
PRIMARY · YES73.45¢implied prob 73.45% · decimal odds 1.36×
COUNTER · NO26.55¢implied prob 26.55% · decimal odds 3.77×
73.45¢
26.55¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME20.48k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY15.25k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (73¢)|primary − counter| = 0.469 · entropy 0.835 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 73.5%NO 26.6%YES p̂73.5%H = 0.835 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.36×(73¢)NO3.77×(27¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.835 bits (83% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
9days
12hrs
22min
9.52 days·θ = 87.082 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 73.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 26.5%)
current: $0.7345 · expected return per side: $0.27 on YES hit · $0.73 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+4.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=17.78% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 87.082 pp/day
now9.52d left
87.082 pp/day×1.00
−25%7.14d left
100.554 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.76d left
123.153 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.38d left
174.164 pp/day×2.00
−90%22.84h left
275.378 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 34.55% · worst -4.65% · typical |Δ| 3.14%MILD BULLISH +31.85%BEST+34.55%11hWORST-4.65%12hTYPICAL |Δ|3.14%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+31.85%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.63% · Σ -4.40%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +4.83% · Σ +38.65%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.81% · Σ -6.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +31.85%+34.80%-5.55%0.55% · 1h0.55% · 1h0.55%1h-1.20% · 2h-1.20% · 2h-1.20%2h-4.00% · 3h-4.00% · 3h-4.00%3h0.45% · 4h0.45% · 4h0.45%4h-0.45% · 5h-0.45% · 5h-0.45%5h0.25% · 6h0.25% · 6h0.25%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.20% · 8h0.20% · 8h0.20%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-1.35% · 10h-1.35% · 10h-1.35%10h34.55% · 11h34.55% · 11h34.55%11h★ BEST-4.65% · 12h-4.65% · 12h-4.65%12h▼ WORST4.15% · 13h4.15% · 13h4.15%13h5.35% · 14h5.35% · 14h5.35%14h0.40% · 15h0.40% · 15h0.40%15h-0.10% · 16h-0.10% · 16h-0.10%16h-1.25% · 17h-1.25% · 17h-1.25%17h1.90% · 18h1.90% · 18h1.90%18h-0.75% · 19h-0.75% · 19h-0.75%19h-1.90% · 20h-1.90% · 20h-1.90%20h-2.10% · 21h-2.10% · 21h-2.10%21h1.75% · 22h1.75% · 22h1.75%22h-4.05% · 23h-4.05% · 23h-4.05%23h4.10% · 24h4.10% · 24h4.10%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+38.65%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH46% up · 46% down · 8% flat
11 up bars · 11 down · best 34.55% · worst -4.65% · typical |Δ| 3.144%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +30.07%FINAL+30.07%MAX DD-6.94%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+34.26%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.3007 · peak 1.3426 · range [0.9450, 1.3426]1.34260.9450break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.3426UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.94% · significant0%-6.94%▼ TROUGH -6.94%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -6.94%bar 20-25 · 6 bars · ONGOING#2 -6.01%bar 3-11 · 9 bars · recovered#3 -4.65%bar 13-14 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.94%)RECOVERYongoing · 6 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.3007 (30.07%) · max DD -6.94% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=4.24 · σ=37.23MIXED EDGELAST -15.62 (-0.53σ vs μ)63.4631.730.00-31.73-63.46μ = 4.24-39.65-39.65-46.44-46.44-32.62-32.6222.8022.80-34.87-34.8736.9936.9930.5230.5235.3535.3541.5241.5242.0642.0643.8243.8216.6616.6663.4663.4635.7135.71-19.73-19.73-44.53-44.53-20.56-20.56-34.42-34.42-15.62-15.62v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -15.618 · range [-46.44, 63.46] · μ 4.235 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=544.9047 · σ=561.4277 · range [28.8099, 1375.1932] · R²=0.016▲ RISING +70.21%σ EXTREME 103.03%LAST 275.77021375.19321038.5973702.0015365.405728.8099μ = 544.9047max 1375.1932min 28.8099dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 275.77% · range [28.81%, 1375.19%] · μ 544.90% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.228 · σ=0.239MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.583 (-1.48σ vs μ)0.6770.3380.000-0.338-0.677μ = -0.228-0.155-0.155-0.079-0.079-0.161-0.161-0.677-0.677-0.034-0.034-0.071-0.071-0.362-0.362-0.392-0.392-0.442-0.442-0.488-0.488-0.234-0.234-0.025-0.0250.3440.344-0.113-0.113-0.269-0.269-0.014-0.014-0.209-0.209-0.370-0.370-0.583-0.583v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.583 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
409.9022
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.6428
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8961
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.0170
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7456
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.3108
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1899
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7523
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0093
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.5283
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5973
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.839 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.46e-3 · top T=2.18h (17.2%) · top-3 cover 45.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.1e-28.5e-35.6e-32.8e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.88e-3 · 10.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.88e-3 · 10.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.90e-3 · 7.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.90e-3 · 7.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.75e-3 · 2.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.75e-3 · 2.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.71e-3 · 5.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.71e-3 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.14e-3 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.14e-3 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.96e-3 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.96e-3 · 4.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.53e-3 · 14.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.53e-3 · 14.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.23e-3 · 6.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.23e-3 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.03e-3 · 13.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 9.03e-3 · 13.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.01e-3 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.01e-3 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.13e-2 · 17.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.13e-2 · 17.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.06e-3 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.06e-3 · 3.1% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 17.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.549e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (901 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 9.5 d · σ/bar 0.190pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.88ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1950 · n = 901✓ n = 901
μ per bar
-0.005pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.190pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.93pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move10d
2.88pp
σ × √228.36774944444446
Terminal variancebinary
0.1950
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
73.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.32pp · ES₉₅ 0.40pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.005pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.04✓ n = 901
VaR 95%
0.32pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.40pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
11.1pp
peak 77.8¢ → trough 69.2¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
73.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.361
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-277
risk $277 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.36 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$36.15
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 73.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.835 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.835 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.45 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.91 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
85206283942634178276414493641471934459641235447424530263496441983768660243149
NO token ID
58615910038862610954593745042674537901890975532250488110952031540286650856741
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:37:38 UTC
Snapshot age
17.4s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:37:56 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4f0a48463c2b4187b58ac9826cf73cfaed759c3924e36c1dbed524245a7795bc · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,675HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.84HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.740000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
729.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.394
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.235
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-steve-witkoff-attend-the-next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.787714644.78bp0.7960008FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.8349941283.70bp0.92000026FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.9743493166.88bp0.99900050FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.6293031495.90bp0.61200010FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.2701486349.35bp0.11000047FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0379639486.98bp0.00100091PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 901 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
347.92%
σ per bar = 0.002628
Mean return (annualised)
-11204.38%
μ per bar = -0.000064
Sharpe (rf=0)
-32.20
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
11.05%
peak 0.78 → trough 0.69 over 736 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-steve-witkoff-attend-the-next-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting/risk · same metrics, JSON