POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WILL RUSSIA CAPTURE RAI-OLEKSANDRIVKA BY...?

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?

YES · live
13.6¢
NO · live
86.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-russia-capture-rai-oleksandrivka-by-june-30 · fresh · feed 12s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
1298.17%
max drawdown
59.41%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
44.80%
RMS drawdown
pain index
38.99%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
55.95%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.07
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.07
upside/downside
roll spread
3.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
798
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-russia-capture-rai-oleksandrivka-by-june-30/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING12.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
13.6¢
NO · live
86.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1471 · σ=0.0386 · range [0.1020, 0.3005] · R²=0.025▼ FALLING -18.13%σ EXTREME 26.22%LAST 0.13550.30050.25090.20120.15160.1020μ = 0.1471max 0.3005min 0.1020dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 13.55¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 13.6%NO 86.5%NO86.5%86.45¢ · odds 1/1.16
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.572 / 1.00 bits (57%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
13.6%13.6¢7.38×▬ +0.00pp
NO
86.5%86.5¢1.16×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=6,350 · μ=264.6 · σ=453.0 · CV=1.71BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1304639251,3881,850μ = 2651,85050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 6350bp moved · peak 1850bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
12.1s
▲YES mid
13.55¢ (13.55%)
▼NO mid
86.45¢ (86.45%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$24.5k
≋liquidity $
$10.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1471 · σ=0.0386 · range [0.1020, 0.3005] · R²=0.025▼ FALLING -18.13%σ EXTREME 26.22%LAST 0.13550.30050.25090.20120.15160.1020μ = 0.1471max 0.3005min 0.1020dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 13.55¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8529 · σ=0.0386 · range [0.6995, 0.8980] · R²=0.025▲ RISING +3.59%σ NORMAL 4.52%LAST 0.86450.89800.84840.79880.74910.6995μ = 0.8529max 0.8980min 0.6995dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 86.45¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0026 · σ=0.0494 · skew=1.07 (right-skewed) · kurt=4.06 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1186301-11.42ppbin -11.42pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -11.42pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-8.27pp2-5.12ppbin -5.12pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin -5.12pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak7-1.98ppbin -1.98pp · n=7 · 63.6% peakbin -1.98pp · n=7 · 63.6% peak111.17ppbin 1.17pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 1.17pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak14.32ppbin 4.32pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 4.32pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak17.47ppbin 7.47pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 7.47pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak10.62pp13.77pp116.92ppbin 16.92pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 16.92pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.38 · kurt=5.91 · near 9 / mid 14 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.87 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.57σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=7.27)
μ MEAN14.71¢95% CI: [13.20¢, 16.22¢]
σ STD DEV3.86ppσ² = 14.882 · CV = 26.22%
med MEDIAN13.95¢Q₁ 13.45¢ · Q₃ 15.05¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 19.85pp · IQR 1.60pp (1.349σ→5.20pp)
min 10.20¢Q₁ 13.45¢med 13.95¢Q₃ 15.05¢max 30.05¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.365right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂7.272leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 3.25
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 5.15
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.46 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.463negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.000lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.754strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.763fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.754
H = 0.754STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.463k=2-0.000k=3-0.040k=4+0.014k=5+0.0820+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.76)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.46 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.97very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.76)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2132908
SLUGwill-russia-capture-rai-oleksandrivka-by-june-30
CATEGORYWill Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (86¢)
PRIMARY · YES13.55¢implied prob 13.55% · decimal odds 7.38×
COUNTER · NO86.45¢implied prob 86.45% · decimal odds 1.16×
13.55¢
86.45¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME24.51k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY10.86k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (86¢)|primary − counter| = 0.729 · entropy 0.572 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 13.6%NO 86.5%YES p̂13.6%H = 0.572 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES7.38×(14¢)NO1.16×(86¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.572 bits (57% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
9days
13hrs
05min
9.55 days·θ = 18.899 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 13.6%)
NO →$0.00(P = 86.5%)
current: $0.1355 · expected return per side: $0.86 on YES hit · $0.14 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+4.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=3.86% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 18.899 pp/day
now9.55d left
18.899 pp/day×1.00
−25%7.16d left
21.823 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.77d left
26.727 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.39d left
37.798 pp/day×2.00
−90%22.91h left
59.763 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 18.50% · worst -13.00% · typical |Δ| 2.65%BEARISH SESSION -3.00%BEST+18.50%13hWORST-13.00%14hTYPICAL |Δ|2.65%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.37% · Σ -2.60%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.39% · Σ +3.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.44% · Σ -3.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.00%+13.50%-6.35%-1.50% · 1h-1.50% · 1h-1.50%1h-4.85% · 2h-4.85% · 2h-4.85%2h7.35% · 3h7.35% · 3h7.35%3h0.70% · 4h0.70% · 4h0.70%4h-4.15% · 5h-4.15% · 5h-4.15%5h-0.60% · 6h-0.60% · 6h-0.60%6h0.45% · 7h0.45% · 7h0.45%7h0.10% · 8h0.10% · 8h0.10%8h-0.60% · 9h-0.60% · 9h-0.60%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-1.90% · 12h-1.90% · 12h-1.90%12h18.50% · 13h18.50% · 13h18.50%13h★ BEST-13.00% · 14h-13.00% · 14h-13.00%14h▼ WORST0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-2.00% · 16h-2.00% · 16h-2.00%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-3.45% · 19h-3.45% · 19h-3.45%19h-1.10% · 20h-1.10% · 20h-1.10%20h0.05% · 21h0.05% · 21h0.05%21h3.10% · 22h3.10% · 22h3.10%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+3.10%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH29% up · 46% down · 25% flat
7 up bars · 11 down · best 18.50% · worst -13.00% · typical |Δ| 2.646%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -5.91%FINAL-5.91%MAX DD-18.59%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+12.15%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9409 · peak 1.1215 · range [0.9131, 1.1215]1.12150.9131break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1215UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -18.59% · severe0%-18.59%▼ TROUGH -18.59%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -18.59%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -6.58%bar 6-13 · 8 bars · recovered#3 -6.28%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -18.59%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9409 (-5.91%) · max DD -18.59% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-16.83 · σ=29.08MIXED EDGELAST -11.06 (+0.20σ vs μ)72.3936.190.00-36.19-72.39μ = -16.83-10.84-10.84-3.92-3.9216.0716.07-35.93-35.93-44.25-44.25-24.42-24.42-36.11-36.1132.2632.264.624.625.555.552.452.452.452.455.395.39-56.84-56.84-72.39-72.39-71.44-71.44-10.32-10.32-11.06-11.06-11.06-11.06v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -11.065 · range [-72.39, 32.26] · μ -16.832 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=443.4083 · σ=350.0598 · range [38.8635, 953.0452] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -51.82%σ EXTREME 78.95%LAST 197.9260953.0452724.4998495.9544267.408938.8635μ = 443.4083max 953.0452min 38.8635dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 197.93% · range [38.86%, 953.05%] · μ 443.41% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.214 · σ=0.252MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.179 (+1.56σ vs μ)0.5530.2770.000-0.277-0.553μ = -0.214-0.253-0.253-0.320-0.3200.0920.092-0.255-0.2550.0730.073-0.350-0.350-0.080-0.080-0.118-0.118-0.553-0.553-0.543-0.543-0.534-0.534-0.534-0.534-0.452-0.452-0.122-0.122-0.336-0.336-0.235-0.2350.1250.1250.1420.1420.1790.179v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.179 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
67.3230
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.0894
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2970
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-4.2639
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0009
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2849
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7757
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1320
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4756
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.9872
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0469
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.395 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.89e-3 · top T=2.40h (23.8%) · top-3 cover 55.2%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)8.2e-36.2e-34.1e-32.1e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.40e-4 · 0.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.40e-4 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.64e-4 · 2.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.64e-4 · 2.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.42e-4 · 2.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.42e-4 · 2.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.80e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.80e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.46e-3 · 15.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.46e-3 · 15.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.88e-4 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.88e-4 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.68e-3 · 7.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.68e-3 · 7.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.99e-3 · 14.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.99e-3 · 14.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.80e-3 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.80e-3 · 5.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.25e-3 · 23.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.25e-3 · 23.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.47e-3 · 10.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.47e-3 · 10.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.43e-3 · 15.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.43e-3 · 15.6% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=4.80h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 23.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.470e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (798 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 9.5 d · σ/bar 0.981pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 14.85ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1171 · n = 798✓ n = 798
μ per bar
+0.002pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.981pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
4.81pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move10d
14.85pp
σ × √229.0892552777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.1171
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
13.6¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.61pp · ES₉₅ 2.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.70pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 798
VaR 95%
1.61pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
2.02pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
59.4pp
peak 30.6¢ → trough 12.4¢
Median step
0.70pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
13.6%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
7.380
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+638
$100 wins $638
FractionalUK
6.38 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$638.01
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 13.6%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.572 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.572 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.88 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.21 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
88403228407526026334161323077559451214717087874889655715239207060993844938000
NO token ID
68587270661988270884913306677764627599854397312737626109425172139479317567618
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 10:54:26 UTC
Snapshot age
12.1s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 10:54:38 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
91855ad833f055db6b93253471d21297376d312934f78d7cdb4bffc021856296 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,625HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.89HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,727.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.135500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
811.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.786
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.588
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-russia-capture-rai-oleksandrivka-by-june-30/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1946864367.96bp0.22800016FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.49522126547.68bp0.75800033FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.72111343218.69bp0.99900049PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0848123740.80bp0.00100020PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0848123740.80bp0.00100020PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0848123740.80bp0.00100020PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 798 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
6783.23%
σ per bar = 0.051238
Mean return (annualised)
33222.82%
μ per bar = 0.000190
Sharpe (rf=0)
4.90
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
59.41%
peak 0.31 → trough 0.12 over 50 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-russia-capture-rai-oleksandrivka-by-june-30/risk · same metrics, JSON