POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YES · live
14.8¢
NO · live
85.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-renan-santos-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election · fresh · feed 13s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.62%
realized vol (ann.)
17.32%
max drawdown
2.94%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.30%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.93%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.94%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.47
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.47
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.62%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -2.62%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-renan-santos-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING12.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
14.8¢
NO · live
85.2¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1506 · σ=0.0036 · range [0.1415, 0.1545] · R²=0.034▼ FALLING -2.62%σ NORMAL 2.38%LAST 0.14850.15450.15120.14800.14470.1415μ = 0.1506max 0.1545min 0.1415dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 14.85¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 14.8%NO 85.2%NO85.2%85.15¢ · odds 1/1.17
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.606 / 1.00 bits (61%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
14.8%14.8¢6.73×▬ +0.00pp
NO
85.2%85.2¢1.17×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=410 · μ=17.1 · σ=24.7 · CV=1.44BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=9023456890μ = 179050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 410bp moved · peak 90bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
12.8s
▲YES mid
14.85¢ (14.85%)
▼NO mid
85.15¢ (85.15%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$78.2k
≋liquidity $
$233.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1506 · σ=0.0036 · range [0.1415, 0.1545] · R²=0.034▼ FALLING -2.62%σ NORMAL 2.38%LAST 0.14850.15450.15120.14800.14470.1415μ = 0.1506max 0.1545min 0.1415dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 14.85¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8494 · σ=0.0036 · range [0.8455, 0.8585] · R²=0.034▲ RISING +0.47%σ LOW 0.42%LAST 0.85150.85850.85530.85200.84880.8455μ = 0.8494max 0.8585min 0.8455dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 85.15¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0028 · skew=0.01 (symmetric) · kurt=2.16 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107301-0.82ppbin -0.82pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -0.82pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-0.67pp-0.51pp1-0.36ppbin -0.36pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -0.36pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak4-0.20ppbin -0.20pp · n=4 · 30.8% peakbin -0.20pp · n=4 · 30.8% peak13-0.05ppbin -0.05pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin -0.05pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak20.11ppbin 0.11pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 0.11pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak0.26pp10.42ppbin 0.42pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 0.42pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak20.57ppbin 0.57pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 0.57pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.19 · kurt=2.74 · near 11 / mid 13 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.92 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.93)
μ MEAN15.06¢95% CI: [14.92¢, 15.20¢]
σ STD DEV0.36ppσ² = 0.129 · CV = 2.38%
med MEDIAN15.25¢Q₁ 14.85¢ · Q₃ 15.30¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.30pp · IQR 0.45pp (1.349σ→0.48pp)
min 14.15¢Q₁ 14.85¢med 15.25¢Q₃ 15.30¢max 15.45¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.927left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.040mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.54
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.08
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.63
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.166within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.084lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.861strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.901fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.861
H = 0.861STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.166k=2-0.084k=3-0.387k=4-0.292k=5+0.0330+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.90)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.89very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.90)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID601825
SLUGwill-renan-santo…ial-election
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (85¢)
PRIMARY · YES14.85¢implied prob 14.85% · decimal odds 6.73×
COUNTER · NO85.15¢implied prob 85.15% · decimal odds 1.17×
14.85¢
85.15¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME78.22k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY233.44k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (85¢)|primary − counter| = 0.703 · entropy 0.606 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 14.8%NO 85.2%YES p̂14.8%H = 0.606 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES6.73×(15¢)NO1.17×(85¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.606 bits (61% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-10-04 00:00 UTC
107days
14hrs
04min
107.59 days·θ = 1.757 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 14.8%)
NO →$0.00(P = 85.2%)
current: $0.1485 · expected return per side: $0.85 on YES hit · $0.15 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+53.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.36% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.757 pp/day
now107.59d left
1.757 pp/day×1.00
−25%80.69d left
2.029 pp/day×1.15
−50%53.79d left
2.485 pp/day×1.41
−75%26.90d left
3.514 pp/day×2.00
−90%10.76d left
5.556 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.65% · worst -0.90% · typical |Δ| 0.17%MILD BEARISH -0.40%BEST+0.65%9hWORST-0.90%6hTYPICAL |Δ|0.17%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.40%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -0.95%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.40%+0.20%-1.10%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.05% · 2h0.05% · 2h0.05%2h-0.05% · 3h-0.05% · 3h-0.05%3h0.15% · 4h0.15% · 4h0.15%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.90% · 6h-0.90% · 6h-0.90%6h▼ WORST-0.20% · 7h-0.20% · 7h-0.20%7h-0.15% · 8h-0.15% · 8h-0.15%8h0.65% · 9h0.65% · 9h0.65%9h★ BEST0.65% · 10h0.65% · 10h0.65%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.05% · 12h-0.05% · 12h-0.05%12h-0.05% · 13h-0.05% · 13h-0.05%13h-0.05% · 14h-0.05% · 14h-0.05%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-0.20% · 16h-0.20% · 16h-0.20%16h-0.05% · 17h-0.05% · 17h-0.05%17h-0.15% · 18h-0.15% · 18h-0.15%18h0.35% · 19h0.35% · 19h0.35%19h-0.40% · 20h-0.40% · 20h-0.40%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH21% up · 46% down · 33% flat
5 up bars · 11 down · best 0.65% · worst -0.90% · typical |Δ| 0.171%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.41%)FINAL-0.41%MAX DD-1.25%RECOVERYONGOING · 4 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.19%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9959 · peak 1.0019 · range [0.9890, 1.0019]1.00190.9890break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0019UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.25% · moderate0%-1.25%▼ TROUGH -1.25%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.25%bar 7-10 · 4 bars · recovered#2 -0.60%bar 13-25 · 13 bars · ONGOING#3 -0.05%bar 4-4 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.25%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 0.9959 (-0.41%) · max DD -1.25% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-17.69 · σ=42.33UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -3.28 (+0.34σ vs μ)103.6151.810.00-51.81-103.61μ = -17.69-30.33-30.33-38.86-38.86-48.75-48.75-13.85-13.851.331.331.331.3335.6635.6644.1344.1350.4550.4527.9927.99-74.18-74.18-91.34-91.34-103.61-103.61-8.04-8.04-28.02-28.02-28.02-28.02-16.00-16.00-12.77-12.77-3.28-3.28v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -3.284 · range [-103.61, 50.45] · μ -17.693 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=28.8205 · σ=14.3450 · range [6.3937, 54.8482] · R²=0.409▼ FALLING -38.41%σ EXTREME 49.77%LAST 22.230854.848242.734630.621018.50746.3937μ = 28.8205max 54.8482min 6.3937dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.41μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 22.23% · range [6.39%, 54.85%] · μ 28.82% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.154 · σ=0.360CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.508 (-0.98σ vs μ)0.6570.3280.000-0.328-0.657μ = -0.154-0.009-0.0090.0250.025-0.024-0.0240.0100.0100.3140.3140.3070.3070.2060.2060.1130.1130.4510.4510.0270.027-0.264-0.264-0.405-0.405-0.422-0.422-0.223-0.223-0.588-0.588-0.635-0.635-0.657-0.657-0.655-0.655-0.508-0.508v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.508 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
13.8766
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0010
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.0855
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1503
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.1317
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2410
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0762
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9393
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0937
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.9042
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3659
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.275 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.22e-6 · top T=8.00h (20.2%) · top-3 cover 51.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.2e-51.7e-51.1e-55.6e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.90e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.90e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.31e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.31e-5 · 11.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.23e-5 · 20.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.23e-5 · 20.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.52e-5 · 13.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.52e-5 · 13.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.97e-5 · 17.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.97e-5 · 17.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.10e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.10e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.72e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.72e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.54e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.54e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.07e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.07e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.48e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.48e-5 · 13.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.81e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.81e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.20e-5 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.20e-5 · 10.9% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 20.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.107e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 107.6 d · σ/bar 0.026pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.33ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1264 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.026pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.13pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move108d
1.33pp
σ × √2582.0798583333335
Terminal variancebinary
0.1264
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
14.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.04pp · ES₉₅ 0.05pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.04pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.05pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
10.3pp
peak 15.6¢ → trough 14.0¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
14.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
6.734
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+573
$100 wins $573
FractionalUK
5.73 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$573.40
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 14.8%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.606 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.606 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.75 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.23 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
93998891488819623915454849994768171534113749478841216025646247933473925258016
NO token ID
7565921021555775006041943394390068423142281108752994121417017072842379450830
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 09:54:59 UTC
Snapshot age
12.8s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 09:55:12 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
57cfb8be088d46a440661ed062c20792f6731e9a2b5f3a6bd012ee8c4edab3eb · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.3¢HL PREDCanada76.0¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.5¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,218HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.96HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,747.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$120
bid $28 · ask $92
Mid price
0.148500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
67.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.893
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.310
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-renan-santos-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.156348528.52bp0.16000011FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1724881615.33bp0.18600037FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.41574217996.12bp0.800000114FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.144302282.66bp0.1420007FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1282321364.87bp0.11900030FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0166298880.17bp0.001000104PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
232.94%
σ per bar = 0.001760
Mean return (annualised)
-931.76%
μ per bar = -0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
-4.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
10.29%
peak 0.16 → trough 0.14 over 732 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-renan-santos-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election/risk · same metrics, JSON