TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “brazilian · election · president” (9 markets)
Top terms: brazilianelectionpresidentpoliticswin2026
- Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1.8¢ YES · $26.1k 24h
- Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0.1¢ YES · $25.5k 24h
- Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0.4¢ YES · $72.2k 24h
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1.1¢ YES · $88.9k 24h
- ★ Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?14.8¢ YES · $78.3k 24h
- Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?1.5¢ YES · $28.3k 24h
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?2.1¢ YES · $38.7k 24h
- Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0.1¢ YES · $56.5k 24h
- Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?0.1¢ YES · $68.7k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.158 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.659 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.530 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.473 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.454 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.341 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.341 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.225 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-renan-santos-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.95%
realized vol (ann.)
17.39%
max drawdown
3.27%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.51%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.28%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.94%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.44
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.44
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.95%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change -2.95%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-renan-santos-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →