POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WILL NATO COUNTRIES CLASH WITH EACH OTHER BEFORE 2027?

Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?

YES · live
6.1¢
NO · live
93.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027 · fresh · feed 9s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
73.06%
max drawdown
19.44%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
11.76%
RMS drawdown
pain index
10.34%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.05%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
17.95%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.88
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.88
upside/downside
roll spread
1.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
837
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
6.1¢
NO · live
93.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0630 · σ=0.0025 · range [0.0585, 0.0715] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -3.97%σ NORMAL 4.03%LAST 0.06050.07150.06820.06500.06170.0585μ = 0.0630max 0.0715min 0.0585dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 6.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 6.1%NO 93.9%NO93.9%93.90¢ · odds 1/1.06
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.331 / 1.00 bits (33%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
6.1%6.1¢16.39×▬ +0.00pp
NO
93.9%93.9¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=365 · μ=15.2 · σ=26.9 · CV=1.77BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=200265279105μ = 1510550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 365bp moved · peak 105bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
9.0s
▲YES mid
6.10¢ (6.10%)
▼NO mid
93.90¢ (93.90%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$19.8k
≋liquidity $
$31.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0630 · σ=0.0025 · range [0.0585, 0.0715] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -3.97%σ NORMAL 4.03%LAST 0.06050.07150.06820.06500.06170.0585μ = 0.0630max 0.0715min 0.0585dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 6.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9370 · σ=0.0025 · range [0.9285, 0.9415] · R²=0.000▲ RISING +0.27%σ LOW 0.27%LAST 0.93950.94150.93830.93500.93170.9285μ = 0.9370max 0.9415min 0.9285dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 93.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0028 · skew=-0.79 (left-skewed) · kurt=3.73 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118401-0.96ppbin -0.96pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -0.96pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak-0.78pp-0.60pp1-0.42ppbin -0.42pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -0.42pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak1-0.24ppbin -0.24pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -0.24pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak15-0.06ppbin -0.06pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin -0.06pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak20.12ppbin 0.12pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin 0.12pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak30.30ppbin 0.30pp · n=3 · 20.0% peakbin 0.30pp · n=3 · 20.0% peak0.48pp10.66ppbin 0.66pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 0.66pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.05 · kurt=4.66 · near 8 / mid 15 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.88 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=3.84)
μ MEAN6.30¢95% CI: [6.20¢, 6.40¢]
σ STD DEV0.25ppσ² = 0.064 · CV = 4.03%
med MEDIAN6.30¢Q₁ 6.30¢ · Q₃ 6.30¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.30pp · IQR 0.00pp (1.349σ→0.34pp)
min 5.85¢Q₁ 6.30¢med 6.30¢Q₃ 6.30¢max 7.15¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.659right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.837leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.00
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.00
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 5.12
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.079within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.440lag-2 dependence detected
H · HURST EXPONENT0.803strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.054fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.803
H = 0.803STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=2
k=1-0.079k=2 ★-0.440k=3-0.001k=4-0.083k=5+0.1110+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.05)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.68very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.05)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1184343
SLUGwill-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027
CATEGORYWill NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (94¢)
PRIMARY · YES6.10¢implied prob 6.10% · decimal odds 16.39×
COUNTER · NO93.90¢implied prob 93.90% · decimal odds 1.06×
6.10¢
93.90¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME19.75k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY31.18k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (94¢)|primary − counter| = 0.878 · entropy 0.331 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 6.1%NO 93.9%YES p̂6.1%H = 0.331 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES16.39×(6¢)NO1.06×(94¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.331 bits (33% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
193days
12hrs
24min
193.52 days·θ = 1.243 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 6.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 93.9%)
current: $0.0610 · expected return per side: $0.94 on YES hit · $0.06 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+96.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.25% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.243 pp/day
now193.52d left
1.243 pp/day×1.00
−25%145.14d left
1.435 pp/day×1.15
−50%96.76d left
1.758 pp/day×1.41
−75%48.38d left
2.486 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.35d left
3.931 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.75% · worst -1.05% · typical |Δ| 0.15%MILD BEARISH -0.25%BEST+0.75%19hWORST-1.05%21hTYPICAL |Δ|0.15%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.25%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.25%+0.85%-0.45%0.05% · 1h0.05% · 1h0.05%1h-0.05% · 2h-0.05% · 2h-0.05%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-0.45% · 16h-0.45% · 16h-0.45%16h0.25% · 17h0.25% · 17h0.25%17h0.05% · 18h0.05% · 18h0.05%18h0.75% · 19h0.75% · 19h0.75%19h★ BEST0.25% · 20h0.25% · 20h0.25%20h-1.05% · 21h-1.05% · 21h-1.05%21h▼ WORST-0.10% · 22h-0.10% · 22h-0.10%22h0.35% · 23h0.35% · 23h0.35%23h-0.30% · 24h-0.30% · 24h-0.30%24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH25% up · 21% down · 54% flat
6 up bars · 5 down · best 0.75% · worst -1.05% · typical |Δ| 0.152%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.26%)FINAL-0.26%MAX DD-1.15%RECOVERYONGOING · 4 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.85%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9974 · peak 1.0085 · range [0.9955, 1.0085]1.00850.9955break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0085UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.15% · moderate0%-1.15%▼ TROUGH -1.15%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.15%bar 22-25 · 4 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.50%bar 3-19 · 17 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.15%)RECOVERYongoing · 4 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9974 (-0.26%) · max DD -1.15% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −6 (21% positive) · μ=-2.10 · σ=16.54UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -2.50 (-0.02σ vs μ)38.2119.100.00-19.10-38.21μ = -2.100.000.00-38.21-38.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.21-13.73-13.73-10.19-10.1923.8523.8533.7433.74-4.95-4.953.903.906.416.41-2.50-2.50v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -2.499 · range [-38.21, 33.74] · μ -2.099 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=19.4153 · σ=23.6357 · range [0.0000, 59.0217] · R²=0.800▲ RISING +1874.00%σ EXTREME 121.74%LAST 58.425059.021744.266329.510814.75540.0000μ = 19.4153max 59.0217min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 58.42% · range [0.00%, 59.02%] · μ 19.42% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −8 (16% positive) · μ=-0.082 · σ=0.174MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.061 (+0.12σ vs μ)0.5000.2500.000-0.250-0.500μ = -0.082-0.500-0.500-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.498-0.498-0.400-0.400-0.075-0.0750.0260.026-0.048-0.0480.0440.0440.0200.020-0.061-0.061v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.061 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
42.2574
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.2667
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2804
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.4671
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0090
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2916
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7706
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (6 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0452
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1711
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2416
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.644 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.41e-6 · top T=4.80h (16.6%) · top-3 cover 44.9%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)1.9e-51.4e-59.4e-64.7e-60.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 4.89e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 4.89e-7 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.00e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.00e-6 · 2.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.90e-6 · 7.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.90e-6 · 7.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.45e-5 · 12.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.45e-5 · 12.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.87e-5 · 16.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.87e-5 · 16.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.49e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.49e-5 · 13.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.05e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.05e-5 · 9.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.48e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.48e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.70e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.70e-5 · 15.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.29e-6 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.29e-6 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.31e-7 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.31e-7 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.76e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.76e-6 · 3.3% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=2.67h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 16.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.129e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (837 bars · effective 1752713 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 193.5 d · σ/bar 0.055pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.76ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0573 · n = 837✓ n = 837
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.055pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.27pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move194d
3.76pp
σ × √4644.410094999999
Terminal variancebinary
0.0573
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
6.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.09pp · ES₉₅ 0.11pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.03✓ n = 837
VaR 95%
0.09pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.11pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
19.4pp
peak 7.2¢ → trough 5.8¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
6.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
16.393
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1539
$100 wins $1539
FractionalUK
15.39 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1539.34
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 6.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.331 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.331 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.04 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.09 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
16685533845304518145715588677898351352097705849107536121866786102492597276164
NO token ID
8488397391403847780128828550772077917183274183347668954290128374280968255155
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:35:14 UTC
Snapshot age
9.0s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:35:23 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
53302d7a28e2d81d847e3db5ddfae898c6712ecbe52b039b14aa0648fea50bd0 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,661HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.68HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,726

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.060500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1487.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.125
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.179
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.13916513002.41bp0.43000026FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.43716862259.23bp0.61000035FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.767673116888.04bp0.99000063FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0024389596.97bp0.00100027PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0024389596.97bp0.00100027PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0024389596.97bp0.00100027PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 837 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1140.45%
σ per bar = 0.008614
Mean return (annualised)
-16516.78%
μ per bar = -0.000094
Sharpe (rf=0)
-14.48
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
19.44%
peak 0.07 → trough 0.06 over 584 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027/risk · same metrics, JSON