POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · # OF VIEWS OF MRBEAST VIDEO WEEK 1? (SMALLER STRIKES)

Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in week 1?

YES · live
0.9¢
NO · live
99.1¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-56pt5-and-57-million-views-in-week-1-20260619140136070 · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
47.36%
max drawdown
45.83%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
25.50%
RMS drawdown
pain index
16.86%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
45.83%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.33
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.33
upside/downside
roll spread
11.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
535
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-56pt5-and-57-million-views-in-week-1-20260619140136070/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.9¢
NO · live
99.1¢
YES price · live 24h
n=18 · μ=0.0495 · σ=0.0559 · range [0.0065, 0.2005] · R²=0.032▼ FALLING -38.71%σ EXTREME 112.86%LAST 0.00950.20050.15200.10350.05500.0065μ = 0.0495max 0.2005min 0.0065dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
18 ticks · last 0.95¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.9%NO 99.1%NO99.1%99.05¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.077 / 1.00 bits (8%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.9%0.9¢105.26×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.1%99.1¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=17 · Σ=4,210 · μ=247.6 · σ=379.5 · CV=1.53BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=802915838741,165μ = 2481,16550%h1h3h5h7h9h11h13h15h17#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 4210bp moved · peak 1165bp · n=17 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.6s
▲YES mid
0.95¢ (0.95%)
▼NO mid
99.05¢ (99.05%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$19.8k
≋liquidity $
$11.7k
◳history points
18 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=18 · μ=0.0495 · σ=0.0559 · range [0.0065, 0.2005] · R²=0.032▼ FALLING -38.71%σ EXTREME 112.86%LAST 0.00950.20050.15200.10350.05500.0065μ = 0.0495max 0.2005min 0.0065dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
18 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.95¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=18 · μ=0.9505 · σ=0.0559 · range [0.7995, 0.9935] · R²=0.032▲ RISING +0.61%σ HIGH 5.88%LAST 0.99050.99350.94500.89650.84800.7995μ = 0.9505max 0.9935min 0.7995dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
18 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.05¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=17 · 10 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0415 · skew=0.14 (symmetric) · kurt=1.87 (leptokurtic (fat tails))864201-10.06ppbin -10.06pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -10.06pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-7.77pp1-5.49ppbin -5.49pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -5.49pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-3.20pp8-0.92ppbin -0.92pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin -0.92pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak51.37ppbin 1.37pp · n=5 · 62.5% peakbin 1.37pp · n=5 · 62.5% peak3.65pp15.94ppbin 5.94pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 5.94pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak8.22pp110.51ppbin 10.51pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 10.51pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=17
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=17 · skew=0.03 · kurt=2.54 · near 7 / mid 10 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.92 intercept=0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=18STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.25)
μ MEAN4.95¢95% CI: [2.37¢, 7.54¢]
σ STD DEV5.59ppσ² = 31.245 · CV = 112.86%
med MEDIAN1.83¢Q₁ 0.80¢ · Q₃ 6.85¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 19.40pp · IQR 6.05pp (1.349σ→7.54pp)
min 0.65¢Q₁ 0.80¢med 1.83¢Q₃ 6.85¢max 20.05¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.252right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.598mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.56
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.25
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.47
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.124within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.200lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.236strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.733fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.236
H = 1.236STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.124k=2+0.200k=3-0.347k=4-0.091k=5+0.1360+1−1+0.49−0.49+ momentum (ρ > +0.49)− reversal (ρ < −0.49)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.73)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.73)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2609461
SLUGwill-mrbeasts-ne…619140136070
CATEGORY# of views of MrBeast video week 1? (Smaller Strikes)
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.95¢implied prob 0.95% · decimal odds 105.26×
COUNTER · NO99.05¢implied prob 99.05% · decimal odds 1.01×
0.95¢
99.05¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME19.77k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY11.66k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.981 · entropy 0.077 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.9%NO 99.1%YES p̂0.9%H = 0.077 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES105.26×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.077 bits (8% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=17 bars · best 11.65% · worst -11.20% · typical |Δ| 2.48%MILD BEARISH -0.60%BEST+11.65%8hWORST-11.20%11hTYPICAL |Δ|2.48%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.60%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.98% · Σ +6.85%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.96% · Σ -7.70%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +0.25%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.60%+18.50%-0.90%0.55% · 1h0.55% · 1h0.55%1h-1.35% · 2h-1.35% · 2h-1.35%2h4.80% · 3h4.80% · 3h4.80%3h-0.40% · 4h-0.40% · 4h-0.40%4h1.40% · 5h1.40% · 5h1.40%5h0.40% · 6h0.40% · 6h0.40%6h1.45% · 7h1.45% · 7h1.45%7h11.65% · 8h11.65% · 8h11.65%8h★ BEST-6.50% · 9h-6.50% · 9h-6.50%9h-1.10% · 10h-1.10% · 10h-1.10%10h-11.20% · 11h-11.20% · 11h-11.20%11h▼ WORST-0.60% · 12h-0.60% · 12h-0.60%12h0.05% · 13h0.05% · 13h0.05%13h0.05% · 14h0.05% · 14h0.05%14h-0.05% · 15h-0.05% · 15h-0.05%15h0.40% · 16h0.40% · 16h0.40%16h-0.15% · 17h-0.15% · 17h-0.15%17hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+6.85%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 4BREADTH53% up · 47% down
9 up bars · 8 down · best 11.65% · worst -11.20% · typical |Δ| 2.476%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=18 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -2.26%FINAL-2.26%MAX DD-18.38%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+19.39%UNDERWATER11/18 (61%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9774 · peak 1.1939 · range [0.9745, 1.1939]1.19390.9745break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1939UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -18.38% · severe0%-18.38%▼ TROUGH -18.38%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -18.38%bar 10-18 · 9 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.35%bar 3-3 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.40%bar 5-5 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -18.38%)RECOVERYongoing · 9 barsTIME UNDER WATER61% of session · 11/18 bars
final equity 0.9774 (-2.26%) · max DD -18.38% · time-under-water 11/18 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 4 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=14 · +9 / −5 (64% positive) · μ=9.70 · σ=52.02MIXED EDGELAST 24.44 (+0.28σ vs μ)90.6845.340.00-45.34-90.68μ = 9.7031.0531.0538.4238.4263.4063.4075.3275.3265.7165.7121.8921.8916.9116.91-16.96-16.96-90.68-90.68-56.25-56.25-49.55-49.55-41.26-41.2653.3553.3524.4424.44v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 24.439 · range [-90.68, 75.32] · μ 9.699 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=14 · μ=370.9262 · σ=289.6736 · range [18.4736, 923.1350] · R²=0.022▼ FALLING -91.18%σ EXTREME 78.09%LAST 22.4026923.1350696.9697470.8043244.639018.4736μ = 370.9262max 923.1350min 18.4736dataMA(2)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 22.40% · range [18.47%, 923.14%] · μ 370.93% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=14 · +0 / −14 (0% positive) · μ=-0.390 · σ=0.234MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.630 (-1.03σ vs μ)0.7580.3790.000-0.379-0.758μ = -0.390-0.591-0.591-0.685-0.685-0.374-0.374-0.515-0.515-0.032-0.032-0.501-0.501-0.349-0.349-0.250-0.250-0.758-0.758-0.341-0.341-0.038-0.038-0.120-0.120-0.279-0.279-0.630-0.630v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.630 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
10.9833
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0041
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.6490
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4613
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6789
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4482
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.2662
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7901
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1661
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4160
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2709
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7865
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.934 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=8 bins · noise floor μ=2.09e-3 · top T=2.43h (24.9%) · top-3 cover 62.4%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)4.2e-33.1e-32.1e-31.0e-30.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 17.0 · power 2.13e-3 · 12.7% energyperiod 17.0 · power 2.13e-3 · 12.7% energyperiod 8.5 · power 2.17e-3 · 13.0% energyperiod 8.5 · power 2.17e-3 · 13.0% energyperiod 5.7 · power 2.86e-3 · 17.1% energyperiod 5.7 · power 2.86e-3 · 17.1% energyperiod 4.3 · power 1.66e-3 · 9.9% energyperiod 4.3 · power 1.66e-3 · 9.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.31e-5 · 0.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.31e-5 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.8 · power 3.10e-4 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.8 · power 3.10e-4 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.16e-3 · 24.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.16e-3 · 24.9% energyperiod 2.1 · power 3.42e-3 · 20.5% energyperiod 2.1 · power 3.42e-3 · 20.5% energy50% by T=4.3h#1 dominantT=2.43h#2T=2.13h#3T=5.67hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.43h (freq 0.412) · concentrates 24.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.673e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (535 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.036pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.09ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0094 · n = 535✓ n = 535
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.036pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.18pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.09pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0094
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.9¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.06pp · ES₉₅ 0.07pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 535
VaR 95%
0.06pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.07pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
45.8pp
peak 1.2¢ → trough 0.7¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
105.263
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+10426
$100 wins $10426
FractionalUK
104.26 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$10426.32
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.9%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.077 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.077 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.72 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
53781235619605904246440878218168589875647032565532549714620382549842820376134
NO token ID
95711478056600150975321866702126569880340295225840080525143100222741159564915
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 12:11:05 UTC
Snapshot age
3.6s
History points
18 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 12:11:09 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7882481fa94f416d3eae3d809989040563083797d1cc7d3dc929158f18d5f4ff · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.6¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,702HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.32HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,728.8

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in # of views of MrBeast video week 1? (Smaller Strikes)

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.009500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
11578.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.992
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.411
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-56pt5-and-57-million-views-in-week-1-20260619140136070/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.134766131859.16bp0.28400028FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.530858548797.67bp0.89000044FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.900233937613.29bp0.99400055FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0037406063.42bp0.0010002PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0037406063.42bp0.0010002PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0037406063.42bp0.0010002PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 535 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
5184.86%
σ per bar = 0.039160
Mean return (annualised)
100250.12%
μ per bar = 0.000572
Sharpe (rf=0)
19.34
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
45.83%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 133 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-mrbeasts-next-video-get-between-56pt5-and-57-million-views-in-week-1-20260619140136070/risk · same metrics, JSON