POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WHO WILL SIGN U.S. X IRAN DEAL?

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

YES · live
31.5¢
NO · live
68.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf-sign-a-us-x-iran-deal-by-july-31 · fresh · feed 9s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
785.95%
max drawdown
39.56%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
11.62%
RMS drawdown
pain index
8.01%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
31.58%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.17
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.17
upside/downside
roll spread
2.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf-sign-a-us-x-iran-deal-by-july-31/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
31.5¢
NO · live
68.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.4884 · σ=0.2681 · range [0.2200, 0.9300] · R²=0.678▼ FALLING -66.13%σ EXTREME 54.90%LAST 0.31500.93000.75250.57500.39750.2200μ = 0.4884max 0.9300min 0.2200dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 31.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 31.5%NO 68.5%NO68.5%68.50¢ · odds 1/1.46
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.899 / 1.00 bits (90%) · high uncertainty
YES
31.5%31.5¢3.17×▬ +0.00pp
NO
68.5%68.5¢1.46×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=14,550 · μ=606.3 · σ=896.0 · CV=1.48BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=901,0382,0753,1134,150μ = 6064,15050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 14550bp moved · peak 4150bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
9.1s
▲YES mid
31.50¢ (31.50%)
▼NO mid
68.50¢ (68.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$40.3k
≋liquidity $
$20.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4884 · σ=0.2681 · range [0.2200, 0.9300] · R²=0.678▼ FALLING -66.13%σ EXTREME 54.90%LAST 0.31500.93000.75250.57500.39750.2200μ = 0.4884max 0.9300min 0.2200dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 31.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5116 · σ=0.2681 · range [0.0700, 0.7800] · R²=0.678▲ RISING +878.57%σ EXTREME 52.41%LAST 0.68500.78000.60250.42500.24750.0700μ = 0.5116max 0.7800min 0.0700dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 68.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0280 · σ=0.0982 · skew=-1.87 (left-skewed) · kurt=5.21 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107301-38.80ppbin -38.80pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -38.80pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-33.40pp-28.00pp-22.60pp1-17.20ppbin -17.20pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -17.20pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak1-11.80ppbin -11.80pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -11.80pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak4-6.40ppbin -6.40pp · n=4 · 30.8% peakbin -6.40pp · n=4 · 30.8% peak13-1.00ppbin -1.00pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin -1.00pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak4.40pp49.80ppbin 9.80pp · n=4 · 30.8% peakbin 9.80pp · n=4 · 30.8% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.10 · kurt=6.00 · near 10 / mid 13 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.89 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.73σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.61)
μ MEAN48.84¢95% CI: [38.33¢, 59.35¢]
σ STD DEV26.81ppσ² = 718.932 · CV = 54.90%
med MEDIAN31.50¢Q₁ 30.00¢ · Q₃ 82.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 71.00pp · IQR 52.50pp (1.349σ→36.17pp)
min 22.00¢Q₁ 30.00¢med 31.50¢Q₃ 82.50¢max 93.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.613right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.477platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.65
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.69
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.65
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.097within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.315lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.812strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.963significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.812
H = 0.812STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.097k=2-0.315k=3+0.319k=4+0.013k=5+0.0080+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.96)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.72very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.96)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2555825
SLUGwill-mohammad-ba…l-by-july-31
CATEGORYWho will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (69¢)
PRIMARY · YES31.50¢implied prob 31.50% · decimal odds 3.17×
COUNTER · NO68.50¢implied prob 68.50% · decimal odds 1.46×
31.50¢
68.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME40.29k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY20.40k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (69¢)|primary − counter| = 0.370 · entropy 0.899 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 31.5%NO 68.5%YES p̂31.5%H = 0.899 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES3.17×(32¢)NO1.46×(69¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.899 bits (90% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-08-01 03:59 UTC
43days
14hrs
50min
43.62 days·θ = 131.356 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 31.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 68.5%)
current: $0.3150 · expected return per side: $0.69 on YES hit · $0.32 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+21.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=26.81% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 131.356 pp/day
now43.62d left
131.356 pp/day×1.00
−25%32.71d left
151.677 pp/day×1.15
−50%21.81d left
185.765 pp/day×1.41
−75%10.90d left
262.712 pp/day×2.00
−90%4.36d left
415.384 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 12.50% · worst -41.50% · typical |Δ| 6.06%BEARISH SESSION -61.50%BEST+12.50%10hWORST-41.50%8hTYPICAL |Δ|6.06%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-61.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -1.14% · Σ -8.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -7.87% · Σ -63.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +1.13% · Σ +9.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -61.50%+0.00%-71.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h-5.50% · 2h-5.50% · 2h-5.50%2h-5.00% · 3h-5.00% · 3h-5.00%3h1.00% · 4h1.00% · 4h1.00%4h-6.00% · 5h-6.00% · 5h-6.00%5h7.50% · 6h7.50% · 6h7.50%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-41.50% · 8h-41.50% · 8h-41.50%8h▼ WORST-6.50% · 9h-6.50% · 9h-6.50%9h12.50% · 10h12.50% · 10h12.50%10h★ BEST-19.00% · 11h-19.00% · 11h-19.00%11h-3.50% · 12h-3.50% · 12h-3.50%12h-3.00% · 13h-3.00% · 13h-3.00%13h-1.50% · 14h-1.50% · 14h-1.50%14h-0.50% · 15h-0.50% · 15h-0.50%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h9.50% · 17h9.50% · 17h9.50%17h-0.50% · 18h-0.50% · 18h-0.50%18h-1.50% · 19h-1.50% · 19h-1.50%19h0.50% · 20h0.50% · 20h0.50%20h1.00% · 21h1.00% · 21h1.00%21h9.50% · 22h9.50% · 22h9.50%22h-9.50% · 23h-9.50% · 23h-9.50%23h0.50% · 24h0.50% · 24h0.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+9.00%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 5BREADTH33% up · 54% down · 13% flat
8 up bars · 13 down · best 12.50% · worst -41.50% · typical |Δ| 6.063%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -54.55%FINAL-54.55%MAX DD-58.10%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.4545 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.4190, 1.0000]1.00000.4190break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -58.10% · severe0%-58.10%▼ TROUGH -58.10%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -58.10%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsevere (max -58.10%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.4545 (-54.55%) · max DD -58.10% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-13.16 · σ=32.77MIXED EDGELAST 1.28 (+0.44σ vs μ)59.6429.820.00-29.82-59.64μ = -13.16-23.77-23.77-23.77-23.77-39.39-39.39-40.81-40.81-27.80-27.80-36.94-36.94-48.59-48.59-51.87-51.87-32.45-32.45-23.32-23.32-59.64-59.643.273.2714.0014.0020.2020.2028.5628.5634.9934.9957.2157.21-1.28-1.281.281.28v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 1.285 · range [-59.64, 57.21] · μ -13.163 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=922.6585 · σ=584.9579 · range [375.5476, 1857.7266] · R²=0.329▲ RISING +15.61%σ EXTREME 63.40%LAST 568.09591857.72661487.18181116.6371746.0923375.5476μ = 922.6585max 1857.7266min 375.5476dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 568.10% · range [375.55%, 1857.73%] · μ 922.66% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.202 · σ=0.197MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.466 (-1.34σ vs μ)0.5790.2890.000-0.289-0.579μ = -0.202-0.370-0.370-0.244-0.244-0.060-0.060-0.094-0.094-0.065-0.065-0.197-0.197-0.348-0.348-0.144-0.144-0.579-0.579-0.455-0.4550.0860.0860.1450.145-0.050-0.050-0.132-0.132-0.187-0.187-0.230-0.230-0.021-0.021-0.431-0.431-0.466-0.466v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.466 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
80.3701
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.0928
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2967
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.6116
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4802
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5215
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6020
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7306
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0108
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9239
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3556
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.719 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.08e-2 · top T=3.00h (21.5%) · top-3 cover 51.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.8e-22.1e-21.4e-27.0e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.47e-2 · 11.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.47e-2 · 11.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.48e-3 · 2.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.48e-3 · 2.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.33e-3 · 1.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.33e-3 · 1.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.65e-3 · 6.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.65e-3 · 6.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.31e-3 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.31e-3 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.15e-2 · 16.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.15e-2 · 16.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.74e-2 · 13.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.74e-2 · 13.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.79e-2 · 21.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.79e-2 · 21.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.40e-2 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.40e-2 · 10.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.08e-3 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.08e-3 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.65e-4 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.65e-4 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.58e-3 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.58e-3 · 1.2% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 21.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.293e-1

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3050 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 43.6 d · σ/bar 1.632pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 52.79ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2158 · n = 3050✓ n = 3050
μ per bar
-0.015pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
1.632pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
7.99pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move44d
52.79pp
σ × √1046.8389119444446
Terminal variancebinary
0.2158
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
31.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 2.70pp · ES₉₅ 3.38pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.015pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3050
VaR 95%
2.70pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
3.38pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
76.5pp
peak 93.5¢ → trough 22.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
31.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.175
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+217
$100 wins $217
FractionalUK
2.17 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$217.46
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 31.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.899 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.899 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.67 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.55 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
107384852639224919895110427712085747026625310263526105025442567117495140451904
NO token ID
95975723232069299485743295932773068064637608504815335076561328861035663357358
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 13:08:30 UTC
Snapshot age
9.1s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 13:08:39 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
eadd54438aa173eca4db95f27131037ed450b657fba8d1fc71482973ff014f4c · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.315000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
952.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.532
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.452
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf-sign-a-us-x-iran-deal-by-july-31/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.5294906809.20bp0.58000012FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.66732411184.90bp0.75000023FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.85305317081.06bp0.96000038FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.1639304795.86bp0.13000014FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0561198218.44bp0.01000024PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0561198218.44bp0.01000024PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,050 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
4509.66%
σ per bar = 0.034066
Mean return (annualised)
-50621.11%
μ per bar = -0.000289
Sharpe (rf=0)
-11.23
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
76.47%
peak 0.94 → trough 0.22 over 1019 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-mohammad-bagher-ghalibaf-sign-a-us-x-iran-deal-by-july-31/risk · same metrics, JSON