POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250?

YES · live
0.4¢
NO · live
99.7¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-lionel-messi-attend-ufc-freedom-250-20260602162901358-787-497-734 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
9.39%
max drawdown
28.57%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
8.34%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.43%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
28.57%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
399
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-lionel-messi-attend-ufc-freedom-250-20260602162901358-787-497-734/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH13ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.4¢
NO · live
99.7¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1776 · σ=0.1474 · range [0.0035, 0.4660] · R²=0.529▼ FALLING -50.32%σ EXTREME 82.98%LAST 0.23150.46600.35040.23480.11910.0035μ = 0.1776max 0.4660min 0.0035dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 23.15¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.4%NO 99.7%NO99.7%99.65¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.034 / 1.00 bits (3%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.4%0.4¢285.71×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.7%99.7¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=9,425 · μ=392.7 · σ=763.1 · CV=1.94BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1407261,4532,1792,905μ = 3932,90550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 9425bp moved · peak 2905bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
13ms
▲YES mid
0.35¢ (0.35%)
▼NO mid
99.65¢ (99.65%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$628.4k
≋liquidity $
$1.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1776 · σ=0.1474 · range [0.0035, 0.4660] · R²=0.529▼ FALLING -50.32%σ EXTREME 82.98%LAST 0.23150.46600.35040.23480.11910.0035μ = 0.1776max 0.4660min 0.0035dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 23.15¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8224 · σ=0.1474 · range [0.5340, 0.9965] · R²=0.529▲ RISING +43.91%σ EXTREME 17.92%LAST 0.76850.99650.88090.76520.64960.5340μ = 0.8224max 0.9965min 0.5340dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 76.85¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0082 · σ=0.0800 · skew=-0.46 (symmetric) · kurt=4.30 (leptokurtic (fat tails))17139401-26.38ppbin -26.38pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -26.38pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak-21.05pp-15.71pp2-10.38ppbin -10.38pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin -10.38pp · n=2 · 11.8% peak2-5.04ppbin -5.04pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin -5.04pp · n=2 · 11.8% peak170.29ppbin 0.29pp · n=17 · 100.0% peakbin 0.29pp · n=17 · 100.0% peak5.63pp110.96ppbin 10.96pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 10.96pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak16.30pp121.63ppbin 21.63pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 21.63pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.35 · kurt=5.90 · near 8 / mid 14 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.82 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.17)
μ MEAN17.76¢95% CI: [11.98¢, 23.53¢]
σ STD DEV14.74ppσ² = 217.123 · CV = 82.98%
med MEDIAN21.80¢Q₁ 0.60¢ · Q₃ 25.30¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 46.25pp · IQR 24.70pp (1.349σ→19.88pp)
min 0.35¢Q₁ 0.60¢med 21.80¢Q₃ 25.30¢max 46.60¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.112approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.168platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.27
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.80
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.14
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.030within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.186lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.846strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.085significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.846
H = 0.846STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.030k=2-0.186k=3+0.002k=4+0.007k=5+0.0110+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.08)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.72very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.08)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2420453
SLUGwill-lionel-mess…-787-497-734
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.35¢implied prob 0.35% · decimal odds 285.71×
COUNTER · NO99.65¢implied prob 99.65% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.35¢
99.65¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME628.39k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY1.37k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.993 · entropy 0.034 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.4%NO 99.7%YES p̂0.4%H = 0.034 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES285.71×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.034 bits (3% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-15 03:59 UTC
0days
10hrs
57min
11.0 hours·θ = 72.187 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.4%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.7%)
current: $0.0035 · expected return per side: $1.00 on YES hit · $0.00 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+5.5hRESOLVESP projection · σ=14.74% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 72.187 pp/day
now10.96h left
72.187 pp/day×1.00
−25%8.22h left
83.354 pp/day×1.15
−50%5.48h left
102.088 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.74h left
144.374 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.10h left
228.275 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 24.30% · worst -29.05% · typical |Δ| 3.93%BEARISH SESSION -23.45%BEST+24.30%23hWORST-29.05%14hTYPICAL |Δ|3.93%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-23.45%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -3.40% · Σ -23.80%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -2.77% · Σ -22.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ +3.01% · Σ +24.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -23.45%+0.00%-46.25%-2.40% · 1h-2.40% · 1h-2.40%1h-7.80% · 2h-7.80% · 2h-7.80%2h-8.40% · 3h-8.40% · 3h-8.40%3h-2.70% · 4h-2.70% · 4h-2.70%4h-0.85% · 5h-0.85% · 5h-0.85%5h-0.85% · 6h-0.85% · 6h-0.85%6h-0.80% · 7h-0.80% · 7h-0.80%7h-1.00% · 8h-1.00% · 8h-1.00%8h-1.15% · 9h-1.15% · 9h-1.15%9h-1.05% · 10h-1.05% · 10h-1.05%10h-0.90% · 11h-0.90% · 11h-0.90%11h11.05% · 12h11.05% · 12h11.05%12h-0.10% · 13h-0.10% · 13h-0.10%13h-29.05% · 14h-29.05% · 14h-29.05%14h▼ WORST0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.05% · 17h0.05% · 17h0.05%17h-0.05% · 18h-0.05% · 18h-0.05%18h-0.05% · 19h-0.05% · 19h-0.05%19h-0.20% · 20h-0.20% · 20h-0.20%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h24.30% · 23h24.30% · 23h24.30%23h★ BEST-1.50% · 24h-1.50% · 24h-1.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+24.05%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 11BREADTH13% up · 71% down · 17% flat
3 up bars · 17 down · best 24.30% · worst -29.05% · typical |Δ| 3.927%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -27.85%FINAL-27.85%MAX DD-41.07%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.7215 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.5893, 1.0000]1.00000.5893break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -41.07% · severe0%-41.07%▼ TROUGH -41.07%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -41.07%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsevere (max -41.07%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.7215 (-27.85%) · max DD -41.07% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-102.34 · σ=203.25UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 34.90 (+0.68σ vs μ)679.65339.830.00-339.83-679.65μ = -102.34-105.59-105.59-92.98-92.98-75.57-75.57-156.20-156.20-645.06-645.06-679.65-679.6519.5319.5321.9521.95-24.73-24.73-23.30-23.30-22.01-22.01-20.85-20.85-38.37-38.37-38.29-38.29-45.28-45.28-45.28-45.28-45.28-45.2837.6437.6434.9034.90v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 34.897 · range [-679.65, 37.64] · μ -102.339 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=583.9563 · σ=515.7583 · range [8.0604, 1263.8546] · R²=0.094▲ RISING +196.65%σ EXTREME 88.32%LAST 943.43641263.8546949.9060635.9575322.00898.0604μ = 583.9563max 1263.8546min 8.0604dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 943.44% · range [8.06%, 1263.85%] · μ 583.96% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=0.044 · σ=0.234CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.278 (-1.37σ vs μ)0.5200.2600.000-0.260-0.520μ = 0.0440.3380.3380.5200.5200.1890.189-0.052-0.0520.5000.5000.3530.353-0.022-0.022-0.153-0.1530.0150.015-0.091-0.091-0.083-0.083-0.104-0.104-0.230-0.230-0.033-0.0330.1670.167-0.058-0.058-0.114-0.114-0.030-0.030-0.278-0.278v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.278 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
59.0400
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.0157
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9594
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2132
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2070
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8579
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3909
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6440
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0186
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4846
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6279
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.853 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.35e-3 · top T=6.00h (24.1%) · top-3 cover 53.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.1e-21.6e-21.1e-25.3e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.51e-3 · 2.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.51e-3 · 2.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.22e-2 · 13.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.22e-2 · 13.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.52e-4 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.52e-4 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.12e-2 · 24.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.12e-2 · 24.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.26e-3 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.26e-3 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.67e-3 · 11.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.67e-3 · 11.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.24e-2 · 14.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.24e-2 · 14.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.66e-4 · 0.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.66e-4 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.31e-2 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.31e-2 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.45e-3 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.45e-3 · 3.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.49e-3 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.49e-3 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.65e-3 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.65e-3 · 8.7% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 24.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.816e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (399 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.5 d · σ/bar 0.007pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.02ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0035 · n = 399✓ n = 399
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.007pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.03pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.02pp
σ × √10.956714722222223
Terminal variancebinary
0.0035
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.4¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 399
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
28.6pp
peak 0.4¢ → trough 0.3¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.4%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
285.714
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+28471
$100 wins $28471
FractionalUK
284.71 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$28471.43
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.4%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.034 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.034 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
8.16 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
114650137051912545101928066020572714239725205281120462014651886065631763062881
NO token ID
81139658116834192179563458620743628650668338421648179920459048478254163478448
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 17:01:35 UTC
Snapshot age
13ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 17:01:35 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
92746f41e5966e340a70d0cbe2f633e99ab170e389a2cb0f52477101da27595d · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany93.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?2¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,904HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,661.1HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.01

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.229500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
19825.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.809
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.860
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-lionel-messi-attend-ufc-freedom-250-20260602162901358-787-497-734/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.76000923115.84bp0.84900012FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.92793430432.87bp0.99700024FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.96413532010.26bp0.99900026PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0011149951.45bp0.0010002PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0011149951.45bp0.0010002PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0011149951.45bp0.0010002PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 399 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
3161.99%
σ per bar = 0.023882
Mean return (annualised)
-0.00%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
28.57%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 202 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-lionel-messi-attend-ufc-freedom-250-20260602162901358-787-497-734/risk · same metrics, JSON