POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

YES · live
7.1¢
NO · live
92.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-641 · fresh · feed 16s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.72%
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.72%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -2.72%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-641/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING16.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
7.1¢
NO · live
92.8¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0722 · σ=0.0009 · range [0.0715, 0.0745] · R²=0.512▼ FALLING -1.38%σ NORMAL 1.24%LAST 0.07150.07450.07370.07300.07220.0715μ = 0.0722max 0.0745min 0.0715dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 7.15¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 7.1%NO 92.8%NO92.8%92.85¢ · odds 1/1.08
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.371 / 1.00 bits (37%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
7.1%7.1¢13.99×▬ +0.00pp
NO
92.8%92.8¢1.08×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=60 · μ=2.5 · σ=5.5 · CV=2.21BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=505101520μ = 32050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 60bp moved · peak 20bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
16.5s
▲YES mid
7.15¢ (7.15%)
▼NO mid
92.85¢ (92.85%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$57.0k
≋liquidity $
$382.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0722 · σ=0.0009 · range [0.0715, 0.0745] · R²=0.512▼ FALLING -1.38%σ NORMAL 1.24%LAST 0.07150.07450.07370.07300.07220.0715μ = 0.0722max 0.0745min 0.0715dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 7.15¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9278 · σ=0.0009 · range [0.9255, 0.9285] · R²=0.512▲ RISING +0.11%σ LOW 0.10%LAST 0.92850.92850.92770.92700.92630.9255μ = 0.9278max 0.9285min 0.9255dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.51μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 92.85¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0000 · σ=0.0006 · skew=0.40 (symmetric) · kurt=4.22 (leptokurtic (fat tails))191410501-0.13ppbin -0.13pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin -0.13pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak2-0.10ppbin -0.10pp · n=2 · 10.5% peakbin -0.10pp · n=2 · 10.5% peak-0.06pp-0.03pp190.01ppbin 0.01pp · n=19 · 100.0% peakbin 0.01pp · n=19 · 100.0% peak10.04ppbin 0.04pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin 0.04pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak0.08pp0.11pp0.15pp10.18ppbin 0.18pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin 0.18pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.76 · kurt=4.94 · near 6 / mid 15 / far 3 · OLS slope=0.79 intercept=0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.03)
μ MEAN7.22¢95% CI: [7.18¢, 7.25¢]
σ STD DEV0.09ppσ² = 80.667×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.24%
med MEDIAN7.15¢Q₁ 7.15¢ · Q₃ 7.25¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.30pp · IQR 0.10pp (1.349σ→0.12pp)
min 7.15¢Q₁ 7.15¢med 7.15¢Q₃ 7.25¢max 7.45¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.027right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.197mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.73
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.21
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.34
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.389within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.172lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.064strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.911significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.064
H = 1.064STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=5
k=1-0.389k=2+0.172k=3-0.006k=4+0.162k=5 ★-0.4250+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.91)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.91)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID559658
SLUGwill-kamala-harr…mination-641
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (93¢)
PRIMARY · YES7.15¢implied prob 7.15% · decimal odds 13.99×
COUNTER · NO92.85¢implied prob 92.85% · decimal odds 1.08×
7.15¢
92.85¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME56.99k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY382.44k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (93¢)|primary − counter| = 0.857 · entropy 0.371 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 7.1%NO 92.8%YES p̂7.1%H = 0.371 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES13.99×(7¢)NO1.08×(93¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.371 bits (37% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2028-11-07 00:00 UTC
872days
11hrs
45min
872.49 days·θ = 0.440 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 7.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 92.8%)
current: $0.0715 · expected return per side: $0.93 on YES hit · $0.07 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+436.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.09% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.440 pp/day
now872.49d left
0.440 pp/day×1.00
−25%654.37d left
0.508 pp/day×1.15
−50%436.24d left
0.622 pp/day×1.41
−75%218.12d left
0.880 pp/day×2.00
−90%87.25d left
1.391 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.20% · worst -0.15% · typical |Δ| 0.03%MILD BEARISH -0.10%BEST+0.20%4hWORST-0.15%9hTYPICAL |Δ|0.03%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.10%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.10%+0.20%-0.10%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.20% · 4h0.20% · 4h0.20%4h★ BEST-0.10% · 5h-0.10% · 5h-0.10%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.15% · 9h-0.15% · 9h-0.15%9h▼ WORST0.05% · 10h0.05% · 10h0.05%10h-0.10% · 11h-0.10% · 11h-0.10%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.10%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 1BREADTH8% up · 13% down · 79% flat
2 up bars · 3 down · best 0.20% · worst -0.15% · typical |Δ| 0.025%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.10%)FINAL-0.10%MAX DD-0.30%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.20%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9990 · peak 1.0020 · range [0.9990, 1.0020]1.00200.9990break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0020UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.30% · shallow0%-0.30%▼ TROUGH -0.30%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.30%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.30%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9990 (-0.10%) · max DD -0.30% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +3 / −8 (16% positive) · μ=-11.59 · σ=21.79UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 0.00 (+0.53σ vs μ)41.4420.720.00-20.72-41.44μ = -11.5915.8715.8715.8715.8715.8715.87-6.50-6.50-41.44-41.44-41.44-41.44-41.44-41.44-41.44-41.44-41.44-41.44-15.87-15.87-38.21-38.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · range [-41.44, 15.87] · μ -11.589 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=4.3418 · σ=4.1240 · range [0.0000, 11.2379] · R²=0.872▼ FALLING -100.00%σ EXTREME 94.98%LAST 0.000011.23798.42845.61892.80950.0000μ = 4.3418max 11.2379min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.87μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 0.00% · range [0.00%, 11.24%] · μ 4.34% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −11 (0% positive) · μ=-0.275 · σ=0.280MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.000 (+0.98σ vs μ)0.7160.3580.000-0.358-0.716μ = -0.275-0.454-0.454-0.454-0.454-0.454-0.454-0.290-0.290-0.480-0.480-0.598-0.598-0.716-0.716-0.716-0.716-0.539-0.539-0.489-0.489-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
44.2031
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
11.6924
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0389
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5912
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4899
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6547
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5127
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (4 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6196
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0209
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1458
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2519
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.651 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.15e-7 · top T=2.00h (30.1%) · top-3 cover 61.8%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.5e-61.1e-67.5e-73.8e-70.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.31e-7 · 4.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.31e-7 · 4.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.50e-7 · 7.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.50e-7 · 7.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.26e-7 · 2.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.26e-7 · 2.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.12e-8 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.12e-8 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.18e-7 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.18e-7 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.88e-7 · 3.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.88e-7 · 3.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.99e-7 · 10.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.99e-7 · 10.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.60e-7 · 15.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 7.60e-7 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.32e-7 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.32e-7 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.51e-8 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.51e-8 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.19e-7 · 16.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.19e-7 · 16.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-6 · 30.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-6 · 30.1% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 30.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.979e-6

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2981 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 872.5 d · σ/bar 0.004pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.56ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0664 · n = 2981✓ n = 2981
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.004pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.02pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move872d
0.56pp
σ × √20939.753626944443
Terminal variancebinary
0.0664
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
7.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 2981
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
4.0pp
peak 7.4¢ → trough 7.1¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
7.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
13.986
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1299
$100 wins $1299
FractionalUK
12.99 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1298.60
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 7.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.371 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.371 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.81 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.11 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
38171024903091354977195167437673496224420673639143973968032407064172828043588
NO token ID
26930844951471612827925270830087046333229637930899178134435055616497220846773
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 12:14:30 UTC
Snapshot age
16.5s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 12:14:46 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
35a201946f3c0b5a8cc9b938b7a3e8c8ed368de36d0eafe43af4816aa50b47a1 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.9¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?53¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,971HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.83HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,744.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.071500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
139.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.592
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.555
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-641/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.072884193.64bp0.0730002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0799501181.76bp0.08900018FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.26289826768.95bp0.670000100FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.07100069.93bp0.0710001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.07100069.93bp0.0710001FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0081128865.42bp0.00100048PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,981 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
70.63%
σ per bar = 0.000534
Mean return (annualised)
-2417.03%
μ per bar = -0.000014
Sharpe (rf=0)
-34.22
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.03%
peak 0.07 → trough 0.07 over 580 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-641/risk · same metrics, JSON