{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-641","type":"pm","now":1781789049442,"market":{"id":"559658","slug":"will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-641","question":"Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?","yesProb":0.0715,"noProb":0.9285,"liquidity":383119.61116,"volume24h":57042.27071499999,"endDate":"2028-11-07T00:00:00Z","category":"Politics"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781789046367,"ageMs":3075,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":744,"range":{"min":0.0705,"max":0.1045,"span":0.034},"moments":{"mean":0.0807520161290326,"stdev":0.006685594180789831,"cv":0.08279166888052684,"skew":0.9705445996031463,"kurtosis":0.571096430289249,"ci95":{"lo":0.08027160881061257,"hi":0.08123242344745263,"halfWidth":0.0004804073184200245}},"returns":{"mean":-0.00001884253028263797,"stdev":0.0010739102823685543,"annualisedVol":0.1005124950466046,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":0.8606965174129352,"skew":3.800151582239713,"kurtosis":183.87293953475313,"gainToPain":0.8606965174129352,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":872.4415573842592,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":20938.59737722222,"perDayMove":0.00526106444266232,"perHorizonMove":0.15539670063106956,"terminalVariance":0.06638775,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0.0010000000000000009,"var99":0.0025000000000000022,"es95":0.0018000000000000004,"es90":0.0001462882096069869,"es99":0.004333333333333332,"esTailConcentration":1.5319074025173829,"ulcerIndex":0.2355102546417972,"cdar95":0.3182349813928762,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.31578947368421056,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.3253588516746412,"drawdownPeak":0.1045,"drawdownTrough":0.0705,"drawdownDurationBars":675},"structure":{"hurst":1.0086572034522039,"autocorr1":-0.05844575722921604,"autocorr2":0.016051084926286086,"trendT":-51.23232943020586,"halfLifeMR":57.5890188570897,"permEntropy":0.5064604842294305,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.9082321187584346,"rollSpreadBps":64.34487592597796},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":1048466.5716040762,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":4.07950133548325,"p":0.5399145656600488,"reject":false},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":2.5482800883628354,"p":0.10609355010132826,"reject":false},{"lag":2,"stat":2.740737953373646,"p":0.2528480255853708,"reject":false},{"lag":3,"stat":4.04734990284577,"p":0.25531918480982685,"reject":false},{"lag":5,"stat":4.07950133548325,"p":0.5399145656600488,"reject":false},{"lag":10,"stat":5.877515208602758,"p":0.8263860798139614,"reject":false}],"adf":{"stat":-2.0318594064878535,"p":0.28255858063006106,"reject":false,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":8.586730196615521,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":-1.6023607675208327,"p":0.10907585289922705,"reject":false,"runs":54,"n1":56,"n2":69},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-1.2943086732053808,"p":0.19555895195881856,"reject":false,"vr":0.9111663561532002,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"stressed","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":false,"efficient":true,"tailRisk":"fat"}}}