POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

YES · live

11.5¢

NO · live

88.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-ivan-cepeda-castro-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election · fresh · feed 0s old

realized vol (ann.)

—

max drawdown

—

sharpe

—

ulcer index

—

RMS drawdown

pain index

—

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

—

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

—

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

—

implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-ivan-cepeda-castro-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3ms⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

11.5¢

NO · live

88.5¢

YES price · live 24h

25 ticks · last 11.50¢

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.515 / 1.00 bits (51%) · moderate uncertainty

YES

11.5%11.5¢8.70×▬ +0.00pp

88.5%88.5¢1.13×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp

Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live

Σ 900bp moved · peak 300bp · n=24 ticks

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

3ms

▲YES mid

11.50¢ (11.50%)

▼NO mid

88.50¢ (88.50%)

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

⚖arb gap

0.000pp

$24h vol $

$114.7k

≋liquidity $

$140.3k

◳history points

25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid

25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 11.50¢

NO price · CLOB mid

25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 88.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments

n=24

Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)

reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED

μ MEAN11.58¢95% CI: [11.24¢, 11.92¢]

σ STD DEV0.86ppσ² = 0.743 · CV = 7.45%

med MEDIAN11.50¢Q₁ 10.50¢ · Q₃ 12.50¢

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.00pp · IQR 2.00pp (1.349σ→1.16pp)

SKEWNESS · G₁0.231approximately symmetric

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.964mesokurtic · normal-like

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.09

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.58

range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.48

μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE

ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.070within white-noise band

ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.201lag-2 not significant

H · HURST EXPONENT0.874strongly persistent

OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.167fails 5% test

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.874

H = 0.874STRONGLY PERSISTENT

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.17)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 0.82very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.17)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity

MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

MARKET ID569368

SLUGwill-ivan-cepeda…ial-election

CATEGORYPolitics

TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (89¢)

PRIMARY · YES11.50¢implied prob 11.50% · decimal odds 8.70×

COUNTER · NO88.50¢implied prob 88.50% · decimal odds 1.13×

11.50¢

88.50¢

Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

0%50%100% · target110%

Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp

24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP

24H VOLUME114.68k USD 24h

LIQUIDITY140.32k USD

MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient

PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (89¢)|primary − counter| = 0.770 · entropy 0.515 bits

LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin

Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage

FAIR MARKET · no edge

Probability scale (YES)

0%25%50%
fair75%100%

Implied decimal odds

YES8.70×(12¢)NO1.13×(89¢)

Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%

K* full

0.00%

½K half

0.00%

¼K quarter

0.00%

Entropy H(p̂) = 0.515 bits (51% of max) · moderate uncertainty

0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)

Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding

K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection

⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-21 14:00 UTC

6days

18hrs

39min

YES →$1.00(P = 11.5%)

NO →$0.00(P = 88.5%)

current: $0.1150 · expected return per side: $0.89 on YES hit · $0.12 on NO hit

Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 4.224 pp/day

now6.78d left

4.224 pp/day×1.00

−25%5.08d left

4.877 pp/day×1.15

−50%3.39d left

5.973 pp/day×1.41

−75%1.69d left

8.447 pp/day×2.00

−90%16.27h left

13.357 pp/day×3.16

θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down

2 up bars · 5 down · best 3.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.375%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 0.9893 (-1.07%) · max DD -2.00% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest -38.210 · range [-60.42, 38.21] · μ -13.556 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

-0.5739

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.5661

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 13.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.000e-4

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 6.8 d · σ/bar 0.806pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 10.29ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1018 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100

μ per bar

-0.042pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.806pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

3.95pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move7d

10.29pp

σ × √162.65446277777778

Terminal variancebinary

0.1018

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

11.5¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 1.37pp · ES₉₅ 1.70pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.042pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.16⊘ disabled · n < 30

VaR 95%

1.37pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

1.70pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

16.0pp

peak 12.5¢ → trough 10.5¢

Median step

1.00pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

11.5%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

8.696

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+770

$100 wins $770

FractionalUK

7.70 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$769.57

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.515 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.515 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

3.12 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.18 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot): gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history): clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID: 62374557612691330043510053829591470998236327248924987579815802826988260253261
NO token ID: 45225184915026490412090111842887484470550126139644389135401954155408710524398
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 19:20:43 UTC
Snapshot age: 3ms
History points: 25 CLOB mids
Page rendered: 2026-06-14 19:20:43 UTC
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: fd2a58cd438f5cdde7928c3de8f296669dbf9e674703f3e380104ff48d7eba57 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,806 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,666.3 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.53

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES

Depth within 1bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 5bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 10bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 50bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Mid price

0.115000

(best bid + best ask) / 2

Spread

869.6bp

(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid

Imbalance (whole book)

-0.504

ask-heavy

Imbalance (top-5)

-0.419

ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-ivan-cepeda-castro-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

Side	Notional	Avg fill	Slippage	Worst fill	Levels	Status
BUY	$1.00K	0.120000	434.78bp	0.120000	1	FILLED
BUY	$10.00K	0.139427	2124.09bp	0.160000	5	FILLED
BUY	$100.00K	0.434449	27778.22bp	0.910000	67	FILLED
SELL	$1.00K	0.099701	1330.32bp	0.090000	3	FILLED
SELL	$10.00K	0.037431	6745.09bp	0.010000	11	PARTIAL
SELL	$100.00K	0.037431	6745.09bp	0.010000	11	PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars

Realized vol (annualised)

—

σ per bar = 0.067527

Mean return (annualised)

—

μ per bar = -0.003474

Sharpe (rf=0)

—

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

16.00%

peak 0.13 → trough 0.10 over 10 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-ivan-cepeda-castro-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election/risk · same metrics, JSON