POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WILL CRUDE OIL (CL) HIT__ BY END OF JUNE?

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?

YES · live
51.5¢
NO · live
48.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-75-by-end-of-june · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
233.80%
max drawdown
5.56%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.84%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.42%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.56%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.38
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.38
upside/downside
roll spread
2.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
346
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-75-by-end-of-june/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH32ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
51.5¢
NO · live
48.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.4104 · σ=0.1030 · range [0.2850, 0.6550] · R²=0.217▲ RISING +43.66%σ EXTREME 25.10%LAST 0.51000.65500.56250.47000.37750.2850μ = 0.4104max 0.6550min 0.2850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 51.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 51.5%NO 48.5%YES51.5%51.50¢ · odds 1/1.94
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
51.5%51.5¢1.94×▬ +0.00pp
NO
48.5%48.5¢2.06×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=8,350 · μ=347.9 · σ=728.2 · CV=2.09BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1808751,7502,6253,500μ = 3483,50050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 8350bp moved · peak 3500bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
32ms
▲YES mid
51.50¢ (51.50%)
▼NO mid
48.50¢ (48.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$25.5k
≋liquidity $
$12.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4104 · σ=0.1030 · range [0.2850, 0.6550] · R²=0.217▲ RISING +43.66%σ EXTREME 25.10%LAST 0.51000.65500.56250.47000.37750.2850μ = 0.4104max 0.6550min 0.2850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 51.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5896 · σ=0.1030 · range [0.3450, 0.7150] · R²=0.217▼ FALLING -24.03%σ EXTREME 17.47%LAST 0.49000.71500.62250.53000.43750.3450μ = 0.5896max 0.7150min 0.3450dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 49.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0108 · σ=0.0755 · skew=2.80 (right-skewed) · kurt=10.21 (leptokurtic (fat tails))16128403-8.70ppbin -8.70pp · n=3 · 18.8% peakbin -8.70pp · n=3 · 18.8% peak1-4.10ppbin -4.10pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin -4.10pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak160.50ppbin 0.50pp · n=16 · 100.0% peakbin 0.50pp · n=16 · 100.0% peak35.10ppbin 5.10pp · n=3 · 18.8% peakbin 5.10pp · n=3 · 18.8% peak9.70pp14.30pp18.90pp23.50pp28.10pp132.70ppbin 32.70pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 32.70pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=3.21 · kurt=12.13 · near 6 / mid 16 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.77 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.31σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.75)
μ MEAN41.04¢95% CI: [37.00¢, 45.08¢]
σ STD DEV10.30ppσ² = 106.103 · CV = 25.10%
med MEDIAN37.50¢Q₁ 32.00¢ · Q₃ 48.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 37.00pp · IQR 16.50pp (1.349σ→13.90pp)
min 28.50¢Q₁ 32.00¢med 37.50¢Q₃ 48.50¢max 65.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.751right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.455mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.34
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.84
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.59
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.163within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.031lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.063strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.528significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.063
H = 1.063STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.163k=2+0.031k=3-0.240k=4-0.057k=5+0.1630+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.53)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.53)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2501440
SLUGwill-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-75-by-end-of-june
CATEGORYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGBALANCED · ~50/50
PRIMARY · YES51.50¢implied prob 51.50% · decimal odds 1.94×
COUNTER · NO48.50¢implied prob 48.50% · decimal odds 2.06×
51.50¢
48.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME25.54k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY12.19k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWBALANCED · ~50/50|primary − counter| = 0.030 · entropy 0.999 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 51.5%NO 48.5%YES p̂51.5%H = 0.999 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.94×(52¢)NO2.06×(49¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.999 bits (100% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-06-30 18:30 UTC
15days
14hrs
39min
15.61 days·θ = 50.462 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 51.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 48.5%)
current: $0.5150 · expected return per side: $0.48 on YES hit · $0.52 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+7.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=10.30% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 50.462 pp/day
now15.61d left
50.462 pp/day×1.00
−25%11.71d left
58.269 pp/day×1.15
−50%7.81d left
71.365 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.90d left
100.925 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.56d left
159.576 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 35.00% · worst -11.00% · typical |Δ| 3.48%MILD BULLISH +15.50%BEST+35.00%18hWORST-11.00%21hTYPICAL |Δ|3.48%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+15.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.86% · Σ +6.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -1.37% · Σ -11.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +2.75% · Σ +22.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +15.50%+30.00%-7.00%1.50% · 1h1.50% · 1h1.50%1h0.50% · 2h0.50% · 2h0.50%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h4.00% · 4h4.00% · 4h4.00%4h0.50% · 5h0.50% · 5h0.50%5h-0.50% · 6h-0.50% · 6h-0.50%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-4.00% · 9h-4.00% · 9h-4.00%9h-1.00% · 10h-1.00% · 10h-1.00%10h-7.50% · 11h-7.50% · 11h-7.50%11h-0.50% · 12h-0.50% · 12h-0.50%12h3.50% · 13h3.50% · 13h3.50%13h-1.50% · 14h-1.50% · 14h-1.50%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h35.00% · 18h35.00% · 18h35.00%18h★ BEST-6.50% · 19h-6.50% · 19h-6.50%19h0.50% · 20h0.50% · 20h0.50%20h-11.00% · 21h-11.00% · 21h-11.00%21h▼ WORST0.50% · 22h0.50% · 22h0.50%22h3.50% · 23h3.50% · 23h3.50%23h-1.50% · 24h-1.50% · 24h-1.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+22.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 4BREADTH38% up · 38% down · 25% flat
9 up bars · 9 down · best 35.00% · worst -11.00% · typical |Δ| 3.479%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +9.43%FINAL+9.43%MAX DD-16.37%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+27.71%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0943 · peak 1.2771 · range [0.9280, 1.2771]1.27710.9280break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.2771UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -16.37% · severe0%-16.37%▼ TROUGH -16.37%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -16.37%bar 20-25 · 6 bars · ONGOING#2 -12.96%bar 7-18 · 12 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -16.37%)RECOVERYongoing · 6 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0943 (9.43%) · max DD -16.37% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −8 (53% positive) · μ=-3.18 · σ=40.46MIXED EDGELAST -42.26 (-0.97σ vs μ)67.3533.670.00-33.67-67.35μ = -3.1858.0558.0542.9242.9237.5137.510.000.00-47.76-47.76-67.35-67.35-67.35-67.35-39.41-39.41-46.59-46.59-30.56-30.56-25.96-25.9613.8013.8040.5840.5827.8027.8030.1330.1317.1917.1917.6817.6821.1221.12-42.26-42.26v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -42.264 · range [-67.35, 58.05] · μ -3.182 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=640.7956 · σ=577.1107 · range [150.9172, 1529.0664] · R²=0.593▲ RISING +231.90%σ EXTREME 90.06%LAST 500.90021529.06641184.5291839.9918495.4545150.9172μ = 640.7956max 1529.0664min 150.9172dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.59μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 500.90% · range [150.92%, 1529.07%] · μ 640.80% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.181 · σ=0.147MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.274 (-0.64σ vs μ)0.5260.2630.000-0.263-0.526μ = -0.181-0.269-0.269-0.136-0.136-0.098-0.0980.0540.054-0.052-0.052-0.089-0.089-0.365-0.365-0.136-0.136-0.077-0.077-0.064-0.064-0.042-0.042-0.526-0.526-0.034-0.034-0.353-0.353-0.348-0.348-0.249-0.249-0.230-0.230-0.146-0.146-0.274-0.274v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.274 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
283.9610
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.4342
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6359
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8866
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3492
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3388
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1143
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4008
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6886
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.878 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.79e-3 · top T=2.00h (15.8%) · top-3 cover 43.4%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)1.3e-29.6e-36.4e-33.2e-30.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 2.55e-3 · 3.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.55e-3 · 3.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.39e-3 · 9.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.39e-3 · 9.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.42e-3 · 4.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.42e-3 · 4.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.90e-3 · 9.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.90e-3 · 9.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.21e-2 · 14.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.21e-2 · 14.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.88e-3 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.88e-3 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.17e-3 · 2.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.17e-3 · 2.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.54e-3 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.54e-3 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.04e-2 · 12.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.04e-2 · 12.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.04e-2 · 12.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.04e-2 · 12.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.87e-3 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.87e-3 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.28e-2 · 15.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.28e-2 · 15.8% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 15.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.143e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (346 bars · effective 1753395 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 15.6 d · σ/bar 0.177pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.42ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2498 · n = 346✓ n = 346
μ per bar
-0.007pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.177pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.87pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move16d
3.42pp
σ × √374.6651972222222
Terminal variancebinary
0.2498
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
51.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.30pp · ES₉₅ 0.37pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.007pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 346
VaR 95%
0.30pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.37pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
5.6pp
peak 54.0¢ → trough 51.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
51.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.942
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-106
risk $106 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.94 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$94.17
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 51.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.999 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.999 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.96 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.04 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
77589567528540707142234200155926484412888497954669063810873217971816518538809
NO token ID
88769019698339886205614002099197464165958998947068654698781828792855976301807
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 03:50:05 UTC
Snapshot age
32ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 03:50:05 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
8d8e55c43740a93614183d8f01ea7674e21e56051808fb88c3765dbc8fa6b07c · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSweden99.0¢HL PREDSpain91.8¢HL PREDUruguay66.4¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?84¢POLYMARKETWill Sweden win on 2026-06-14?100¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,914.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,721.85HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$64.91

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.510000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
784.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.400
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.869
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-75-by-end-of-june/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.539335575.19bp0.5400002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.6615062970.71bp0.81000016FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.8855837364.37bp0.99000027PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3827862494.39bp0.31000016FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1044307952.34bp0.01000037PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.1044307952.34bp0.01000037PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 346 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
446.66%
σ per bar = 0.003373
Mean return (annualised)
-24091.26%
μ per bar = -0.000137
Sharpe (rf=0)
-53.94
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.56%
peak 0.54 → trough 0.51 over 50 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-75-by-end-of-june/risk · same metrics, JSON