TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “crude · oil · hit” (18 markets)

Top terms: crudeoilhitclwtiend

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?-3.993101▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?-3.959101▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?-3.894101▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?-3.693101▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?-3.624101▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?-3.602101▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?-3.559101▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?-3.119101no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-75-by-end-of-june · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts
realized vol (ann.)
324.07%
max drawdown
17.59%
sharpe
ulcer index
5.99%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.14%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
10.47%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.14
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.14
upside/downside
roll spread
6.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
554
store
spread
24h Δ
flow lean
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-75-by-end-of-june/bundle · venue execution: polymarket