TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “crude · oil · hit” (18 markets)
Top terms: crudeoilhitclwtiend
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?3.1¢ YES · $74.2k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?2.6¢ YES · $46.7k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?2.5¢ YES · $31.1k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?1.8¢ YES · $82.0k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?1.5¢ YES · $51.8k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?0.9¢ YES · $31.7k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?0.9¢ YES · $31.0k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?0.9¢ YES · $68.0k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?0.5¢ YES · $55.6k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?15.7¢ YES · $73.3k 24h
- ★ Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?44.5¢ YES · $24.6k 24h
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?89.0¢ YES · $40.7k 24h
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?7.9¢ YES · $30.5k 24h
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?49.5¢ YES · $41.3k 24h
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?20.0¢ YES · $23.8k 24h
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?97.8¢ YES · $64.4k 24h
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?8.5¢ YES · $31.0k 24h
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?1.6¢ YES · $24.0k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.993 | 101 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.959 | 101 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.894 | 101 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.693 | 101 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.624 | 101 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.602 | 101 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.559 | 101 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.119 | 101 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-75-by-end-of-june · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
324.07%
max drawdown
17.59%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.99%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.14%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
10.47%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.14
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.14
upside/downside
roll spread
6.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
554
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-75-by-end-of-june/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →