POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WILL CRUDE OIL (CL) HIT__ BY END OF JUNE?

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

YES · live
1.5¢
NO · live
98.6¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-crude-oil-cl-hit-high-120-by-end-of-june · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
56.16%
max drawdown
55.56%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
34.62%
RMS drawdown
pain index
23.08%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
55.56%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.27
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.27
upside/downside
roll spread
11.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1080
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-crude-oil-cl-hit-high-120-by-end-of-june/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.5¢
NO · live
98.6¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0209 · σ=0.0054 · range [0.0145, 0.0325] · R²=0.009▼ FALLING -32.56%σ EXTREME 25.74%LAST 0.01450.03250.02800.02350.01900.0145μ = 0.0209max 0.0325min 0.0145dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.45¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.5%NO 98.6%NO98.6%98.55¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.109 / 1.00 bits (11%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.5%1.5¢68.97×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.6%98.6¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=460 · μ=19.2 · σ=37.2 · CV=1.94BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2004385128170μ = 1917050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 460bp moved · peak 170bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1ms
▲YES mid
1.45¢ (1.45%)
▼NO mid
98.55¢ (98.55%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$82.0k
≋liquidity $
$29.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0209 · σ=0.0054 · range [0.0145, 0.0325] · R²=0.009▼ FALLING -32.56%σ EXTREME 25.74%LAST 0.01450.03250.02800.02350.01900.0145μ = 0.0209max 0.0325min 0.0145dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.45¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9791 · σ=0.0054 · range [0.9675, 0.9855] · R²=0.009▲ RISING +0.72%σ LOW 0.55%LAST 0.98550.98550.98100.97650.97200.9675μ = 0.9791max 0.9855min 0.9675dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.55¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0039 · skew=-2.50 (left-skewed) · kurt=8.50 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118401-1.58ppbin -1.58pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -1.58pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak-1.35pp-1.13pp-0.90pp-0.66pp1-0.43ppbin -0.43pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -0.43pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak3-0.20ppbin -0.20pp · n=3 · 20.0% peakbin -0.20pp · n=3 · 20.0% peak150.03ppbin 0.03pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin 0.03pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak10.26ppbin 0.26pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 0.26pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak30.49ppbin 0.49pp · n=3 · 20.0% peakbin 0.49pp · n=3 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.52 · kurt=8.97 · near 8 / mid 15 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.81 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-2.04σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.03)
μ MEAN2.09¢95% CI: [1.88¢, 2.30¢]
σ STD DEV0.54ppσ² = 0.289 · CV = 25.74%
med MEDIAN2.15¢Q₁ 1.50¢ · Q₃ 2.25¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.80pp · IQR 0.75pp (1.349σ→0.73pp)
min 1.45¢Q₁ 1.50¢med 2.15¢Q₃ 2.25¢max 3.25¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.334approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.026platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.97
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.35
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.111within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.017lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.004strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.459fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.004
H = 1.004STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.111k=2-0.017k=3+0.032k=4+0.016k=5+0.0130+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.46)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.46)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1652677
SLUGwill-crude-oil-cl-hit-high-120-by-end-of-june
CATEGORYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.45¢implied prob 1.45% · decimal odds 68.97×
COUNTER · NO98.55¢implied prob 98.55% · decimal odds 1.01×
1.45¢
98.55¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME82.00k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY29.04k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.971 · entropy 0.109 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.5%NO 98.6%YES p̂1.5%H = 0.109 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES68.97×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.109 bits (11% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-06-30 18:30 UTC
15days
17hrs
17min
15.72 days·θ = 2.635 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.6%)
current: $0.0145 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+7.9dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.54% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.635 pp/day
now15.72d left
2.635 pp/day×1.00
−25%11.79d left
3.043 pp/day×1.15
−50%7.86d left
3.727 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.93d left
5.271 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.57d left
8.334 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.60% · worst -1.70% · typical |Δ| 0.19%BEARISH SESSION -0.70%BEST+0.60%15hWORST-1.70%21hTYPICAL |Δ|0.19%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.70%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.70%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.16% · Σ +1.30%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.25%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.70%+1.10%-0.70%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.40% · 6h-0.40% · 6h-0.40%6h-0.30% · 7h-0.30% · 7h-0.30%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.05% · 10h0.05% · 10h0.05%10h0.55% · 11h0.55% · 11h0.55%11h0.15% · 12h0.15% · 12h0.15%12h0.05% · 13h0.05% · 13h0.05%13h-0.10% · 14h-0.10% · 14h-0.10%14h0.60% · 15h0.60% · 15h0.60%15h★ BEST0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.05% · 17h0.05% · 17h0.05%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.45% · 20h0.45% · 20h0.45%20h-1.70% · 21h-1.70% · 21h-1.70%21h▼ WORST-0.10% · 22h-0.10% · 22h-0.10%22h0.05% · 23h0.05% · 23h0.05%23h-0.05% · 24h-0.05% · 24h-0.05%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.30%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH33% up · 25% down · 42% flat
8 up bars · 6 down · best 0.60% · worst -1.70% · typical |Δ| 0.192%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.72%)FINAL-0.72%MAX DD-1.80%RECOVERYONGOING · 4 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.10%UNDERWATER11/25 (44%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9928 · peak 1.0110 · range [0.9928, 1.0110]1.01100.9928break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0110UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.80% · moderate0%-1.80%▼ TROUGH -1.80%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.80%bar 22-25 · 4 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.70%bar 7-12 · 6 bars · recovered#3 -0.10%bar 15-15 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.80%)RECOVERYongoing · 4 barsTIME UNDER WATER44% of session · 11/25 bars
final equity 0.9928 (-0.72%) · max DD -1.80% · time-under-water 11/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=3.65 · σ=48.35MIXED EDGELAST -28.12 (-0.66σ vs μ)70.1135.050.00-35.05-70.11μ = 3.65-38.21-38.21-59.51-59.51-59.51-59.51-59.51-59.51-53.13-53.13-4.69-4.6925.3425.3459.0559.0548.0448.0470.1170.1165.9565.9547.4747.4737.2937.2933.8033.8063.6563.65-24.77-24.77-26.99-26.99-26.99-26.99-28.12-28.12v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -28.122 · range [-59.51, 70.11] · μ 3.645 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=32.3447 · σ=20.5970 · range [15.2840, 70.7245] · R²=0.607▲ RISING +358.56%σ EXTREME 63.68%LAST 70.086970.724556.864443.004329.144115.2840μ = 32.3447max 70.7245min 15.2840dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.61μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 70.09% · range [15.28%, 70.72%] · μ 32.34% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.111 · σ=0.264CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.337 (-0.86σ vs μ)0.4670.2340.000-0.234-0.467μ = -0.111-0.033-0.0330.3550.3550.1470.1470.1470.1470.1780.1780.2590.2590.1550.155-0.001-0.0010.0220.022-0.323-0.323-0.376-0.376-0.467-0.467-0.413-0.413-0.397-0.397-0.118-0.118-0.247-0.247-0.323-0.323-0.333-0.333-0.337-0.337v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.337 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
160.4340
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.3870
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9940
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7662
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4066
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4877
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6258
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1333
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4733
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2639
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7919
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.920 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.69e-5 · top T=4.00h (15.3%) · top-3 cover 42.1%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)3.1e-52.3e-51.6e-57.8e-60.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 1.86e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.86e-5 · 9.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.70e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.70e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.73e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.73e-5 · 8.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.79e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.79e-6 · 1.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.38e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.38e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.11e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.11e-5 · 15.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.27e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.27e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.80e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.80e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.42e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.42e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.03e-5 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.03e-5 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.41e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.41e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.04e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.04e-6 · 1.0% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 15.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.030e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1080 bars · effective 1753200 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 15.7 d · σ/bar 0.042pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.82ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0143 · n = 1080✓ n = 1080
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.042pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.21pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move16d
0.82pp
σ × √377.28470055555556
Terminal variancebinary
0.0143
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.07pp · ES₉₅ 0.09pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1080
VaR 95%
0.07pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.09pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
55.6pp
peak 3.1¢ → trough 1.4¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
68.966
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+6797
$100 wins $6797
FractionalUK
67.97 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$6796.55
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.109 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.109 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.11 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
22793297237480119753316195117372445281037128634030652157243734249176461774694
NO token ID
115244086768882877525516513397533392349337694963923162013382920248577349413134
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 01:12:55 UTC
Snapshot age
1ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 01:12:55 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d8247584ac81d246775e01a315e3da609fbd1b43a95b4e4a2069317e1ec7882f · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.014500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3448.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.784
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.635
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-crude-oil-cl-hit-high-120-by-end-of-june/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.09760457312.86bp0.24000031FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.347324229534.09bp0.60000059FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.794042537615.36bp0.98000087FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0020878560.65bp0.00100010PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0020878560.65bp0.00100010PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0020878560.65bp0.00100010PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,080 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2584.51%
σ per bar = 0.019519
Mean return (annualised)
-106923.40%
μ per bar = -0.000610
Sharpe (rf=0)
-41.37
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
55.56%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.01 over 417 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-crude-oil-cl-hit-high-120-by-end-of-june/risk · same metrics, JSON