POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WILL CRUDE OIL (CL) HIT__ BY END OF JUNE?

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?

YES · live
2.5¢
NO · live
97.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-60-by-end-of-june-529-567-976-769 · fresh · feed 13s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -5.66%
realized vol (ann.)
57.37%
max drawdown
41.18%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
31.21%
RMS drawdown
pain index
28.86%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
40.51%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.12
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.12
upside/downside
roll spread
1.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-5.66%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -5.66%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-60-by-end-of-june-529-567-976-769/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING13.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.5¢
NO · live
97.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0238 · σ=0.0070 · range [0.0160, 0.0415] · R²=0.327▲ RISING +25.00%σ EXTREME 29.40%LAST 0.02500.04150.03510.02880.02240.0160μ = 0.0238max 0.0415min 0.0160dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.5%NO 97.5%NO97.5%97.50¢ · odds 1/1.03
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.169 / 1.00 bits (17%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.5%2.5¢40.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.5%97.5¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=790 · μ=32.9 · σ=52.6 · CV=1.60BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=14063125188250μ = 3325050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 790bp moved · peak 250bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
13.0s
▲YES mid
2.50¢ (2.50%)
▼NO mid
97.50¢ (97.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$43.1k
≋liquidity $
$29.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0238 · σ=0.0070 · range [0.0160, 0.0415] · R²=0.327▲ RISING +25.00%σ EXTREME 29.40%LAST 0.02500.04150.03510.02880.02240.0160μ = 0.0238max 0.0415min 0.0160dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9762 · σ=0.0070 · range [0.9585, 0.9840] · R²=0.327▼ FALLING -0.51%σ LOW 0.72%LAST 0.97500.98400.97760.97120.96490.9585μ = 0.9762max 0.9840min 0.9585dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0057 · skew=2.56 (right-skewed) · kurt=8.41 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1296302-0.73ppbin -0.73pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin -0.73pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak4-0.39ppbin -0.39pp · n=4 · 33.3% peakbin -0.39pp · n=4 · 33.3% peak12-0.05ppbin -0.05pp · n=12 · 100.0% peakbin -0.05pp · n=12 · 100.0% peak40.29ppbin 0.29pp · n=4 · 33.3% peakbin 0.29pp · n=4 · 33.3% peak10.63ppbin 0.63pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 0.63pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak0.97pp1.31pp1.65pp1.99pp12.33ppbin 2.33pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 2.33pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.53 · kurt=8.77 · near 11 / mid 12 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.85 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.02σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.85)
μ MEAN2.38¢95% CI: [2.11¢, 2.66¢]
σ STD DEV0.70ppσ² = 0.491 · CV = 29.40%
med MEDIAN2.00¢Q₁ 1.85¢ · Q₃ 2.80¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.55pp · IQR 0.95pp (1.349σ→0.95pp)
min 1.60¢Q₁ 1.85¢med 2.00¢Q₃ 2.80¢max 4.15¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.853right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.198mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.55
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.00
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.64
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.216within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.203lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.740strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.343significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.740
H = 0.740STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.216k=2-0.203k=3-0.023k=4-0.002k=5+0.0660+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.34)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.70very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.34)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1652695
SLUGwill-crude-oil-c…-567-976-769
CATEGORYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.50¢implied prob 2.50% · decimal odds 40.00×
COUNTER · NO97.50¢implied prob 97.50% · decimal odds 1.03×
2.50¢
97.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME43.15k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY29.54k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.950 · entropy 0.169 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.5%NO 97.5%YES p̂2.5%H = 0.169 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES40.00×(3¢)NO1.03×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.169 bits (17% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-30 18:30 UTC
12days
03hrs
54min
12.16 days·θ = 3.434 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 97.5%)
current: $0.0250 · expected return per side: $0.97 on YES hit · $0.03 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+6.1dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.70% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.434 pp/day
now12.16d left
3.434 pp/day×1.00
−25%9.12d left
3.965 pp/day×1.15
−50%6.08d left
4.857 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.04d left
6.868 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.22d left
10.860 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.50% · worst -0.90% · typical |Δ| 0.33%MILD BULLISH +0.50%BEST+2.50%14hWORST-0.90%5hTYPICAL |Δ|0.33%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.25%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.26% · Σ +2.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.30%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.50%+2.15%-0.40%-0.10% · 1h-0.10% · 1h-0.10%1h-0.05% · 2h-0.05% · 2h-0.05%2h0.10% · 3h0.10% · 3h0.10%3h0.60% · 4h0.60% · 4h0.60%4h-0.90% · 5h-0.90% · 5h-0.90%5h▼ WORST-0.05% · 6h-0.05% · 6h-0.05%6h0.15% · 7h0.15% · 7h0.15%7h0.15% · 8h0.15% · 8h0.15%8h-0.05% · 9h-0.05% · 9h-0.05%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-0.20% · 13h-0.20% · 13h-0.20%13h2.50% · 14h2.50% · 14h2.50%14h★ BEST-0.30% · 15h-0.30% · 15h-0.30%15h-0.85% · 16h-0.85% · 16h-0.85%16h0.05% · 17h0.05% · 17h0.05%17h-0.25% · 18h-0.25% · 18h-0.25%18h0.35% · 19h0.35% · 19h0.35%19h-0.45% · 20h-0.45% · 20h-0.45%20h0.30% · 21h0.30% · 21h0.30%21h-0.35% · 22h-0.35% · 22h-0.35%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h-0.05% · 24h-0.05% · 24h-0.05%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.10%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH33% up · 54% down · 13% flat
8 up bars · 13 down · best 2.50% · worst -0.90% · typical |Δ| 0.329%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.46%FINAL+0.46%MAX DD-1.64%RECOVERYONGOING · 10 barsMAX RUN-UP+2.14%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0046 · peak 1.0214 · range [0.9959, 1.0214]1.02140.9959break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0214UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.64% · moderate0%-1.64%▼ TROUGH -1.64%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.64%bar 16-25 · 10 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.95%bar 6-14 · 9 bars · recovered#3 -0.15%bar 2-4 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.64%)RECOVERYongoing · 10 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 1.0046 (0.46%) · max DD -1.64% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=0.41 · σ=26.00MIXED EDGELAST -14.31 (-0.57σ vs μ)54.7927.400.00-27.40-54.79μ = 0.41-12.91-12.91-4.77-4.771.571.57-3.16-3.16-27.68-27.6833.5133.5145.2845.28-13.86-13.8633.6233.6229.1929.1915.2915.2915.9815.9812.5112.5119.9519.95-54.79-54.79-28.50-28.50-16.00-16.00-23.13-23.13-14.31-14.31v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -14.306 · range [-54.79, 45.28] · μ 0.410 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=55.9005 · σ=37.2712 · range [8.0604, 110.8780] · R²=0.023▼ FALLING -32.33%σ EXTREME 66.67%LAST 30.6157110.878085.173659.469233.76488.0604μ = 55.9005max 110.8780min 8.0604dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 30.62% · range [8.06%, 110.88%] · μ 55.90% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.299 · σ=0.289MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.729 (-1.49σ vs μ)0.8660.4330.000-0.433-0.866μ = -0.299-0.390-0.390-0.377-0.377-0.341-0.341-0.409-0.4090.0800.080-0.045-0.0450.2450.245-0.136-0.136-0.104-0.104-0.372-0.372-0.206-0.206-0.190-0.190-0.185-0.185-0.053-0.053-0.320-0.320-0.460-0.460-0.866-0.866-0.826-0.826-0.729-0.729v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.729 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
155.0302
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.5946
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7645
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.3152
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1749
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.9977
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3184
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5072
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0400
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2266
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2200
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.627 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.79e-5 · top T=3.43h (21.6%) · top-3 cover 49.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)9.8e-57.4e-54.9e-52.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.36e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.36e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.62e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.62e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.17e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.75e-5 · 12.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.75e-5 · 12.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.41e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.41e-5 · 9.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.90e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.90e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.82e-5 · 21.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.82e-5 · 21.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.00e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.00e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.13e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.13e-5 · 11.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.77e-5 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.77e-5 · 14.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.05e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.05e-5 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.50e-5 · 3.3% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.40h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 21.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.550e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 12.2 d · σ/bar 0.033pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.56ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0244 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.033pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.16pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move12d
0.56pp
σ × √291.9083611111111
Terminal variancebinary
0.0244
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.05pp · ES₉₅ 0.07pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.05pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.07pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
51.9pp
peak 3.9¢ → trough 1.8¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
40.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+3900
$100 wins $3900
FractionalUK
39.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$3900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.169 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.169 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.32 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.04 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
60607017895909655638388769522254385133573277856873775703827549054798574055997
NO token ID
28394261464380954566825718363015723662754732056957129621650179768497671340889
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 14:35:16 UTC
Snapshot age
13.0s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 14:35:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
6d18e22538e392ebc89f4ca04d2f56741110d1d3570176dc4e754c741d882bf3 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain91.1¢HL PREDBrazil88.1¢HL PREDEcuador87.1¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?54¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,871HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$69.56HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,737.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.025000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3200.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.300
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.682
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-60-by-end-of-june-529-567-976-769/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.07864321457.18bp0.10900021FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.26853597414.11bp0.67000050FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.732748283099.22bp0.99400073FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0049168033.79bp0.00200015FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0029438822.95bp0.00100016PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0029438822.95bp0.00100016PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1490.53%
σ per bar = 0.011259
Mean return (annualised)
-11292.03%
μ per bar = -0.000064
Sharpe (rf=0)
-7.58
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
51.95%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.02 over 2586 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-crude-oil-cl-hit-low-60-by-end-of-june-529-567-976-769/risk · same metrics, JSON