POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
47.5¢
52.5¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-colombia-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 16s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
257.23%
max drawdown
17.14%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
8.38%
RMS drawdown
pain index
8.21%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
13.04%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.66
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.66
upside/downside
roll spread
1.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-colombia-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
47.5¢
NO · live
52.5¢
25 ticks · last 47.50¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.998 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES47.5%47.5¢2.11×▬ +0.00pp
NO52.5%52.5¢1.90×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 4200bp moved · peak 1200bp · n=24 ticks
16.5s
47.50¢ (47.50%)
52.50¢ (52.50%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$70.5k
$77.4k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 47.50¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 52.50¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.91)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.908left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.602mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.24 + ADF rejected
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 1.117STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
47.50¢
52.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES2.11×(48¢)NO1.90×(53¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.998 bits (100% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-27 00:00 UTC
8days
10hrs
53min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.4750 · expected return per side: $0.53 on YES hit · $0.47 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 30.356 pp/day
now8.45d left30.356 pp/day×1.00
−25%6.34d left35.052 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.23d left42.930 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.11d left60.712 pp/day×2.00
−90%20.29h left95.995 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
8 up bars · 4 down · best 12.00% · worst -6.00% · typical |Δ| 1.750%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.1474 (14.74%) · max DD -6.00% · time-under-water 18/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest -38.210 · range [-38.21, 69.30] · μ 11.592 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 38.21% · range [0.00%, 532.75%] · μ 285.55% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.233 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
46.2475
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
3.6330
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6057
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-1.9883
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3008
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
1.1498
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2502
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀*H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.7332
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0105
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
-1.4012
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1611
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 23.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.326e-2
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3170 bars · effective 1752421 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 8.5 d · σ/bar 0.201pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.86ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2494 · n = 3170✓ n = 3170
μ per bar
+0.002pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.201pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.98pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move8d
2.86pp
σ × √202.8886108333333
Terminal variancebinary
0.2494
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
47.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.33pp · ES₉₅ 0.41pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3170
VaR 95%
0.33pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.41pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
20.2pp
peak 54.5¢ → trough 43.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
47.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.105
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+111
$100 wins $111
FractionalUK
1.11 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$110.53
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.998 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.998 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.07 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.93 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
80431988549118286984274941029124469538511077088999854826157671654195362803995- NO token ID
18358448860478111951920431414684369103385677299011822433247781648138972487371- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-18 13:06:24 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 16.5s
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-18 13:06:41 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
8bcb54283afc6806f593f3166ee966e69bf293e7642d54c2a84003cbd5542e05· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
HL PREDSpain89.3¢HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDEcuador87.1¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?53¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,373HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.66HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,749.5
Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.475000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
210.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.879
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.576
ask-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-colombia-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.480000 | 105.26bp | 0.480000 | 1 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.480000 | 105.26bp | 0.480000 | 1 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.625296 | 3164.12bp | 0.970000 | 24 | FILLED |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.470000 | 105.26bp | 0.470000 | 1 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.459650 | 323.16bp | 0.450000 | 3 | FILLED |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.361202 | 2395.74bp | 0.010000 | 26 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 3,170 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
553.01%
σ per bar = 0.004177
Mean return (annualised)
6150.65%
μ per bar = 0.000035
Sharpe (rf=0)
11.12
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
20.18%
peak 0.55 → trough 0.43 over 133 bars
/api/asset/pm-will-colombia-win-group-k-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON