POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
97.8¢
NO · live
2.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-colombia-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
54.07%
max drawdown
0.56%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.20%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.13%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.53%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.24
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.24
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1567
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-colombia-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
97.8¢
NO · live
2.2¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.9296 · σ=0.0395 · range [0.8900, 0.9795] · R²=0.827▲ RISING +9.94%σ NORMAL 4.25%LAST 0.97850.97950.95710.93470.91240.8900μ = 0.9296max 0.9795min 0.8900dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 97.85¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 97.8%NO 2.2%YES97.8%97.80¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.153 / 1.00 bits (15%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
97.8%97.8¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
NO
2.2%2.2¢45.45×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,015 · μ=42.3 · σ=88.3 · CV=2.09BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=15075150225300μ = 4230050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1015bp moved · peak 300bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.5s
▲YES mid
97.80¢ (97.80%)
▼NO mid
2.20¢ (2.20%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$31.9k
≋liquidity $
$27.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9296 · σ=0.0395 · range [0.8900, 0.9795] · R²=0.827▲ RISING +9.94%σ NORMAL 4.25%LAST 0.97850.97950.95710.93470.91240.8900μ = 0.9296max 0.9795min 0.8900dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.85¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0704 · σ=0.0395 · range [0.0205, 0.1100] · R²=0.827▼ FALLING -80.45%σ EXTREME 56.09%LAST 0.02150.11000.08760.06530.04290.0205μ = 0.0704max 0.1100min 0.0205dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.15¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0038 · σ=0.0083 · skew=2.29 (right-skewed) · kurt=3.80 (leptokurtic (fat tails))16128401-0.33ppbin -0.33pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin -0.33pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak160.03ppbin 0.03pp · n=16 · 100.0% peakbin 0.03pp · n=16 · 100.0% peak40.38ppbin 0.38pp · n=4 · 25.0% peakbin 0.38pp · n=4 · 25.0% peak0.73pp1.08pp1.43pp11.78ppbin 1.78pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 1.78pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak2.13pp2.48pp22.83ppbin 2.83pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakbin 2.83pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.24 · kurt=3.73 · near 5 / mid 16 / far 3 · OLS slope=0.77 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.86)
μ MEAN92.96¢95% CI: [91.42¢, 94.51¢]
σ STD DEV3.95ppσ² = 15.574 · CV = 4.25%
med MEDIAN90.00¢Q₁ 89.50¢ · Q₃ 97.85¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 8.95pp · IQR 8.35pp (1.349σ→5.32pp)
min 89.00¢Q₁ 89.50¢med 90.00¢Q₃ 97.85¢max 97.95¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.314approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.859platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.75
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.64
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.27
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.128within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.357lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.945strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+10.493significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.945
H = 0.945STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.128k=2+0.357k=3+0.167k=4-0.248k=5-0.1120+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.49)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.49)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2070772
SLUGwill-colombia-ad…fa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES97.80¢implied prob 97.80% · decimal odds 1.02×
COUNTER · NO2.20¢implied prob 2.20% · decimal odds 45.45×
97.80¢
2.20¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME31.95k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY27.21k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.956 · entropy 0.153 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 97.8%NO 2.2%YES p̂97.8%H = 0.153 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.02×(98¢)NO45.45×(2¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.153 bits (15% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-28 00:00 UTC
9days
11hrs
42min
9.49 days·θ = 19.334 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 97.8%)
NO →$0.00(P = 2.2%)
current: $0.9780 · expected return per side: $0.02 on YES hit · $0.98 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+4.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=3.95% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 19.334 pp/day
now9.49d left
19.334 pp/day×1.00
−25%7.12d left
22.325 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.74d left
27.342 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.37d left
38.667 pp/day×2.00
−90%22.77h left
61.138 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.00% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.42%MILD BULLISH +8.85%BEST+3.00%13hWORST-0.50%9hTYPICAL |Δ|0.42%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+8.85%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.69% · Σ +5.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.29% · Σ +2.35%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +8.85%+8.95%0.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.50% · 2h0.50% · 2h0.50%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.50% · 7h0.50% · 7h0.50%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.50% · 9h-0.50% · 9h-0.50%9h▼ WORST0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h3.00% · 13h3.00% · 13h3.00%13h★ BEST0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h3.00% · 15h3.00% · 15h3.00%15h1.80% · 16h1.80% · 16h1.80%16h0.20% · 17h0.20% · 17h0.20%17h0.45% · 18h0.45% · 18h0.45%18h-0.05% · 19h-0.05% · 19h-0.05%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.05% · 21h0.05% · 21h0.05%21h-0.05% · 22h-0.05% · 22h-0.05%22h-0.05% · 23h-0.05% · 23h-0.05%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+5.50%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH33% up · 17% down · 50% flat
8 up bars · 4 down · best 3.00% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.423%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +9.13% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+9.13%MAX DD-0.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 4 barsMAX RUN-UP+9.24%UNDERWATER10/25 (40%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0913 · peak 1.0924 · range [1.0000, 1.0924]1.09241.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0924UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.50% · shallow0%-0.50%▼ TROUGH -0.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -0.50%bar 10-13 · 4 bars · recovered#2 -0.10%bar 20-25 · 6 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER40% of session · 10/25 bars
final equity 1.0913 (9.13%) · max DD -0.50% · time-under-water 10/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +14 / −1 (74% positive) · μ=39.42 · σ=35.28PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -38.21 (-2.20σ vs μ)95.2247.610.00-47.61-95.22μ = 39.4238.2138.2160.4260.4238.2138.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0030.4430.4430.4430.4460.4260.4281.6681.6685.6585.6595.2295.2268.2168.2168.2168.2154.1954.1948.0148.0127.8627.86-38.21-38.21v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -38.210 · range [-38.21, 95.22] · μ 39.417 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=68.8721 · σ=53.2651 · range [3.8210, 144.9966] · R²=0.046▼ FALLING -80.00%σ EXTREME 77.34%LAST 3.8210144.9966109.702774.408839.11493.8210μ = 68.8721max 144.9966min 3.8210dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 3.82% · range [3.82%, 145.00%] · μ 68.87% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −10 (26% positive) · μ=-0.114 · σ=0.211MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.133 (-0.09σ vs μ)0.6050.3020.000-0.302-0.605μ = -0.114-0.233-0.233-0.083-0.083-0.233-0.2330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0040.004-0.173-0.173-0.333-0.333-0.368-0.368-0.605-0.605-0.331-0.3310.0150.0150.3750.3750.0060.0060.0530.053-0.120-0.120-0.133-0.133v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.133 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
47.3280
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.2076
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2045
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.3026
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9186
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2300
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8181
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (6 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8133
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0066
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.7147
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0864
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.522 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.11e-5 · top T=24.00h (21.7%) · top-3 cover 58.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.1e-41.6e-41.1e-45.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.12e-4 · 21.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.12e-4 · 21.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.01e-4 · 20.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.01e-4 · 20.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.67e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.67e-5 · 7.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.16e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.16e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.01e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.01e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.14e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.14e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.06e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.06e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.47e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.47e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.54e-4 · 15.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.54e-4 · 15.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.35e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.35e-5 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.53e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.53e-5 · 8.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.96e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.96e-5 · 5.1% energy50% by T=8.0h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 21.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.737e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1567 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 9.5 d · σ/bar 0.041pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.62ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0215 · n = 1567✓ n = 1567
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.041pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.20pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move9d
0.62pp
σ × √227.71256277777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.0215
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
97.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.07pp · ES₉₅ 0.08pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1567
VaR 95%
0.07pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.08pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.6pp
peak 98.0¢ → trough 97.5¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
97.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.022
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-4445
risk $4445 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.02 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2.25
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 97.8%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.153 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.153 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.03 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
5.51 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
79913004845154581717357168344911951554651807329692479020374363833761380155627
NO token ID
41675862242536695517762986823561589340599955718271397963040854741508925716907
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 12:17:12 UTC
Snapshot age
2.5s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 12:17:14 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a495aa56e7c4a6a93f74fe4c250d26227d12e02b0e969ba15fd31073a6b075ce · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDCanada75.9¢HL PREDSwitzerland62.9¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?53¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,970HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.85HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,744

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.978500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
194.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.743
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.599
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-colombia-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.988942106.71bp0.9890002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.992406142.12bp0.9940005FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.993902157.41bp0.9990009PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.968444102.77bp0.9680002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.964630141.75bp0.95600010FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.1371948597.91bp0.00100049PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,567 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
55.42%
σ per bar = 0.000419
Mean return (annualised)
861.52%
μ per bar = 0.000005
Sharpe (rf=0)
15.54
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.56%
peak 0.98 → trough 0.97 over 167 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-colombia-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON