{"ok":true,"asset":"pm-will-colombia-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup","type":"pm","now":1781789224635,"market":{"id":"2070772","slug":"will-colombia-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup","question":"Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?","yesProb":0.9785,"noProb":0.0215,"liquidity":27791.1019,"volume24h":32268.288491000003,"endDate":"2026-06-28T00:00:00Z","category":"Sports"},"snapshot":{"fetchedAt":1781789212663,"ageMs":11972,"stale":false},"stats":{"n":744,"range":{"min":0.835,"max":0.9795,"span":0.14450000000000007},"moments":{"mean":0.8874321236559054,"stdev":0.021196965241682554,"cv":0.023885731287660153,"skew":0.3297958683808852,"kurtosis":3.7030359753678765,"ci95":{"lo":0.8859089714939541,"hi":0.8889552758178567,"halfWidth":0.001523152161951318}},"returns":{"mean":0.00017294751009421273,"stdev":0.00478683423582689,"annualisedVol":0.44802313593301346,"sharpe":null,"sortino":null,"calmar":null,"sharpeAdjAC":null,"omega":1.2588116817724067,"skew":0.44021267061265795,"kurtosis":24.07980355256773,"gainToPain":1.2588116817724067,"returnMode":"diff","framing":"horizon","sharpeSuppressedReason":"bounded binary probability — √periodsPerYear annualisation is dimensionless; see the horizon block"},"horizon":{"daysToResolve":9.4395296875,"barsPerDay":24,"totalBars":226.54871250000002,"perDayMove":0.02345060272212264,"perHorizonMove":0.07204920409620537,"terminalVariance":0.021037749999999966,"resolvedFrom":"endDate","available":true},"risk":{"var95":0.0050000000000000044,"var99":0.015000000000000013,"es95":0.009519230769230778,"es90":0.0007333825701624823,"es99":0.020000000000000018,"esTailConcentration":1.1929149005648292,"ulcerIndex":0.022429905669381967,"cdar95":0.04980335237381782,"drawdownAtRisk95":0.04519774011299439,"sterling":null,"tailIndex":null,"tailIndexWide":null,"maxDrawdown":0.07182320441988957,"drawdownPeak":0.905,"drawdownTrough":0.84,"drawdownDurationBars":102},"structure":{"hurst":0.8960740681050691,"autocorr1":-0.04496544440491495,"autocorr2":-0.03427730132475152,"trendT":19.306734304570455,"halfLifeMR":44.3318142740828,"permEntropy":0.4972258838059873,"permEntropyTieFrac":0.9014844804318488,"rollSpreadBps":22.891568121763694},"tests":{"jarqueBera":{"stat":17974.782554933823,"p":0,"reject":true},"ljungBox":{"stat":4.48682363367314,"p":0.48299180364655236,"reject":false},"ljungBoxProfile":[{"lag":1,"stat":1.5083390028987225,"p":0.21684831825268303,"reject":false},{"lag":2,"stat":2.386026927162134,"p":0.303238041589895,"reject":false},{"lag":3,"stat":3.253226476324767,"p":0.3546616374102757,"reject":false},{"lag":5,"stat":4.48682363367314,"p":0.48299180364655236,"reject":false},{"lag":10,"stat":10.667745028053714,"p":0.38392895905377045,"reject":false}],"adf":{"stat":-1.852162013040494,"p":0.3656371366473838,"reject":false,"criticalValue":-2.86},"kpss":{"stat":3.674043257493134,"p":0.001,"reject":true,"criticalValue":0.463},"runs":{"stat":2.0252641593763117,"p":0.04284011016141864,"reject":true,"runs":72,"n1":66,"n2":55},"varianceRatio":{"stat":-1.6784131123539694,"p":0.09326642920356898,"reject":false,"vr":0.8848037135674882,"horizon":4}},"verdict":{"regime":"calm","stationary":"no","autocorrelated":false,"efficient":true,"tailRisk":"fat"}}}