POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

YES · live
1.7¢
NO · live
98.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-charles-leclerc-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -5.71%
realized vol (ann.)
9.01%
max drawdown
13.16%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.54%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.58%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
9.06%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.87
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.87
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-5.71%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -5.71%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-charles-leclerc-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH17ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.7¢
NO · live
98.4¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0181 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0170, 0.0190] · R²=0.018▼ FALLING -5.41%σ NORMAL 3.42%LAST 0.01750.01900.01850.01800.01750.0170μ = 0.0181max 0.0190min 0.0170dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.75¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.7%NO 98.4%NO98.4%98.35¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.121 / 1.00 bits (12%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.7%1.7¢60.61×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.4%98.4¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=120 · μ=5.0 · σ=5.5 · CV=1.10BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1305101520μ = 52050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 120bp moved · peak 20bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
17ms
▲YES mid
1.65¢ (1.65%)
▼NO mid
98.35¢ (98.35%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$33.3k
≋liquidity $
$120.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0181 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.0170, 0.0190] · R²=0.018▼ FALLING -5.41%σ NORMAL 3.42%LAST 0.01750.01900.01850.01800.01750.0170μ = 0.0181max 0.0190min 0.0170dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.75¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9819 · σ=0.0006 · range [0.9810, 0.9830] · R²=0.018▲ RISING +0.10%σ LOW 0.06%LAST 0.98250.98300.98250.98200.98150.9810μ = 0.9819max 0.9830min 0.9810dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.25¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0000 · σ=0.0007 · skew=0.74 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.35 (mesokurtic)1186305-0.08ppbin -0.08pp · n=5 · 45.5% peakbin -0.08pp · n=5 · 45.5% peak3-0.05ppbin -0.05pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin -0.05pp · n=3 · 27.3% peak-0.02pp110.01ppbin 0.01pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 0.01pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak0.04pp10.07ppbin 0.07pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 0.07pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak30.09ppbin 0.09pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin 0.09pp · n=3 · 27.3% peak0.12pp0.15pp10.18ppbin 0.18pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 0.18pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.77 · kurt=0.62 · near 14 / mid 10 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.61)
μ MEAN1.81¢95% CI: [1.78¢, 1.83¢]
σ STD DEV0.06ppσ² = 38.167×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.42%
med MEDIAN1.85¢Q₁ 1.75¢ · Q₃ 1.85¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.20pp · IQR 0.10pp (1.349σ→0.08pp)
min 1.70¢Q₁ 1.75¢med 1.85¢Q₃ 1.85¢max 1.90¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.037approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.610platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.71
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.83
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.24
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.43 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.428negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.061lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.762strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.643fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.762
H = 0.762STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.428k=2+0.061k=3-0.135k=4+0.253k=5-0.3670+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.64)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.43 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.95very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.64)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID898415
SLUGwill-charles-leclerc-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.65¢implied prob 1.65% · decimal odds 60.61×
COUNTER · NO98.35¢implied prob 98.35% · decimal odds 1.02×
1.65¢
98.35¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME33.34k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY120.86k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.967 · entropy 0.121 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.7%NO 98.4%YES p̂1.7%H = 0.121 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES60.61×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.121 bits (12% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-06 00:00 UTC
174days
08hrs
57min
174.37 days·θ = 0.303 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.7%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.4%)
current: $0.0165 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+87.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.06% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.303 pp/day
now174.37d left
0.303 pp/day×1.00
−25%130.78d left
0.349 pp/day×1.15
−50%87.19d left
0.428 pp/day×1.41
−75%43.59d left
0.605 pp/day×2.00
−90%17.44d left
0.957 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.20% · worst -0.10% · typical |Δ| 0.05%MILD BEARISH -0.10%BEST+0.20%13hWORST-0.10%2hTYPICAL |Δ|0.05%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.10%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.10%+0.05%-0.15%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h-0.10% · 2h-0.10% · 2h-0.10%2h▼ WORST0.10% · 3h0.10% · 3h0.10%3h-0.10% · 4h-0.10% · 4h-0.10%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.10% · 7h0.10% · 7h0.10%7h-0.10% · 8h-0.10% · 8h-0.10%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.05% · 12h-0.05% · 12h-0.05%12h0.20% · 13h0.20% · 13h0.20%13h★ BEST0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-0.05% · 15h-0.05% · 15h-0.05%15h0.05% · 16h0.05% · 16h0.05%16h-0.05% · 17h-0.05% · 17h-0.05%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-0.10% · 19h-0.10% · 19h-0.10%19h0.10% · 20h0.10% · 20h0.10%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 1 · down max 1BREADTH21% up · 33% down · 46% flat
5 up bars · 8 down · best 0.20% · worst -0.10% · typical |Δ| 0.050%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.10%)FINAL-0.10%MAX DD-0.15%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.05%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9990 · peak 1.0005 · range [0.9985, 1.0005]1.00050.9985break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0005UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.15% · shallow0%-0.15%▼ TROUGH -0.15%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -0.15%bar 3-13 · 11 bars · recovered#2 -0.15%bar 16-25 · 10 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.15%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9990 (-0.10%) · max DD -0.15% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −8 (32% positive) · μ=-2.35 · σ=19.06UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -20.72 (-0.96σ vs μ)44.6222.310.00-22.31-44.62μ = -2.35-20.72-20.720.000.000.000.00-20.72-20.720.000.000.000.00-11.74-11.747.647.6426.5826.5816.7616.7625.0125.0115.8715.8725.0125.01-44.62-44.62-10.60-10.600.000.00-11.74-11.74-20.72-20.72-20.72-20.72v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -20.722 · range [-44.62, 26.58] · μ -2.353 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=7.4124 · σ=1.3043 · range [4.9082, 9.5525] · R²=0.023▬ FLATσ EXTREME 17.60%LAST 7.04569.55258.39147.23036.06924.9082μ = 7.4124max 9.5525min 4.9082dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 7.05% · range [4.91%, 9.55%] · μ 7.41% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.426 · σ=0.147MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.363 (+0.43σ vs μ)0.7750.3870.000-0.387-0.775μ = -0.426-0.775-0.775-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.363-0.363-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.494-0.494-0.185-0.185-0.371-0.371-0.295-0.295-0.357-0.357-0.385-0.385-0.100-0.100-0.500-0.500-0.587-0.587-0.500-0.500-0.456-0.456-0.363-0.363-0.363-0.363v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.363 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.8859
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1433
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
12.0487
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0339
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.5156
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0078
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.3658
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0180
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1499
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4443
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.7629
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0779
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.464 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.56e-7 · top T=2.18h (31.2%) · top-3 cover 64.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.1e-61.6e-61.0e-65.2e-70.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.33e-7 · 3.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.33e-7 · 3.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.10e-8 · 0.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.10e-8 · 0.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.30e-7 · 6.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.30e-7 · 6.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.81e-7 · 4.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.81e-7 · 4.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.71e-7 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.71e-7 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.67e-7 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.67e-7 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.64e-6 · 24.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.64e-6 · 24.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.10e-7 · 7.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.10e-7 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.95e-7 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.95e-7 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.62e-7 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.62e-7 · 8.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.08e-6 · 31.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.08e-6 · 31.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 5.6% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 31.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.667e-6

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3546 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 174.4 d · σ/bar 0.006pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.37ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0162 · n = 3546✓ n = 3546
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.006pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.03pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move174d
0.37pp
σ × √4184.953396666667
Terminal variancebinary
0.0162
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3546
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
13.2pp
peak 1.9¢ → trough 1.7¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
60.606
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+5961
$100 wins $5961
FractionalUK
59.61 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$5960.61
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.7%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.121 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.121 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.92 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
2709284834738258468924839192854829143750961889384406449536217899798175177890
NO token ID
46955778407439783468859052837985793249006652932715101652741257747909716565323
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:02:47 UTC
Snapshot age
17ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:02:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
82e2b7f093985e829b3b2df9faecbeb6821285454ff7ad3d9be8f4f94fe3269e · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain90.2¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,086.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.15HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.57

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.017500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
571.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.700
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.545
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-charles-leclerc-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0294406822.91bp0.04000023FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.11413355219.11bp0.51100074FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.546258302147.66bp0.99500087FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0029998286.31bp0.00200013FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0013749214.87bp0.00100014PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0013749214.87bp0.00100014PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,546 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
422.06%
σ per bar = 0.003188
Mean return (annualised)
-2909.34%
μ per bar = -0.000017
Sharpe (rf=0)
-6.89
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
13.16%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 1936 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-charles-leclerc-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion/risk · same metrics, JSON