TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “f1 · champion · drivers” (6 markets)

Top terms: f1championdriverssports2026williams

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (5 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?-4.125168▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?-2.671168no rejection · independent
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?-2.671168no rejection · independent
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?-2.671168no rejection · independent
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?-2.671168no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-charles-leclerc-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion · fresh · feed 11s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
5.56%
max drawdown
4.26%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
4.11%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.97%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.26%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
1.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
567
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-charles-leclerc-be-the-2026-f1-drivers-champion/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →