POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?

YES · live
0.7¢
NO · live
99.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-cameron-boozer-be-the-first-pick-in-the-2026-nba-draft · fresh · feed 16s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
8.73%
max drawdown
23.53%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
16.36%
RMS drawdown
pain index
11.80%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
23.53%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1035
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-cameron-boozer-be-the-first-pick-in-the-2026-nba-draft/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING16.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.7¢
NO · live
99.4¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0085 · σ=0.0039 · range [0.0050, 0.0160] · R²=0.478▼ FALLING -59.38%σ EXTREME 45.28%LAST 0.00650.01600.01330.01050.00770.0050μ = 0.0085max 0.0160min 0.0050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.48μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.65¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.7%NO 99.4%NO99.4%99.35¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.057 / 1.00 bits (6%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.7%0.7¢153.85×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.4%99.4¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=165 · μ=6.9 · σ=11.0 · CV=1.60BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=909172635μ = 73550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 165bp moved · peak 35bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
16.0s
▲YES mid
0.65¢ (0.65%)
▼NO mid
99.35¢ (99.35%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$40.3k
≋liquidity $
$7.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0085 · σ=0.0039 · range [0.0050, 0.0160] · R²=0.478▼ FALLING -59.38%σ EXTREME 45.28%LAST 0.00650.01600.01330.01050.00770.0050μ = 0.0085max 0.0160min 0.0050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.48μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.65¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9915 · σ=0.0039 · range [0.9840, 0.9950] · R²=0.478▲ RISING +0.97%σ LOW 0.39%LAST 0.99350.99500.99220.98950.98680.9840μ = 0.9915max 0.9950min 0.9840dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.48μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.35¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0006 · σ=0.0012 · skew=-0.97 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.17 (mesokurtic)15118402-0.32ppbin -0.32pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin -0.32pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak1-0.27ppbin -0.27pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -0.27pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak2-0.22ppbin -0.22pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin -0.22pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak-0.17pp-0.12pp-0.07pp15-0.02ppbin -0.02pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin -0.02pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak10.03ppbin 0.03pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 0.03pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak10.08ppbin 0.08pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 0.08pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak20.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin 0.13pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.23 · kurt=0.62 · near 7 / mid 16 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.89 intercept=-0.00LEFT-SKEWED · HEAVY NEGATIVE TAILUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.08)
μ MEAN0.85¢95% CI: [0.70¢, 1.00¢]
σ STD DEV0.39ppσ² = 0.149 · CV = 45.28%
med MEDIAN0.65¢Q₁ 0.55¢ · Q₃ 0.85¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.10pp · IQR 0.30pp (1.349σ→0.52pp)
min 0.50¢Q₁ 0.55¢med 0.65¢Q₃ 0.85¢max 1.60¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.083right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.412mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.52
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.73
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.85
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.305within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.089lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.884strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.586significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.884
H = 0.884STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.305k=2+0.089k=3-0.035k=4+0.245k=5+0.0630+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.59)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.59)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1066080
SLUGwill-cameron-boo…26-nba-draft
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.65¢implied prob 0.65% · decimal odds 153.85×
COUNTER · NO99.35¢implied prob 99.35% · decimal odds 1.01×
0.65¢
99.35¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME40.28k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY7.59k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.987 · entropy 0.057 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.7%NO 99.4%YES p̂0.7%H = 0.057 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES153.85×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.057 bits (6% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-25 00:00 UTC
4days
11hrs
51min
4.49 days·θ = 1.890 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.7%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.4%)
current: $0.0065 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+2.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.39% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.890 pp/day
now4.49d left
1.890 pp/day×1.00
−25%3.37d left
2.182 pp/day×1.15
−50%2.25d left
2.673 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.12d left
3.780 pp/day×2.00
−90%10.79h left
5.977 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.15% · worst -0.35% · typical |Δ| 0.07%BEARISH SESSION -0.95%BEST+0.15%18hWORST-0.35%5hTYPICAL |Δ|0.07%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.95%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.80%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.25%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.95%+0.00%-1.10%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-0.20% · 4h-0.20% · 4h-0.20%4h-0.35% · 5h-0.35% · 5h-0.35%5h▼ WORST-0.25% · 6h-0.25% · 6h-0.25%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.30% · 9h-0.30% · 9h-0.30%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.05% · 12h0.05% · 12h0.05%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.10% · 16h0.10% · 16h0.10%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.15% · 18h0.15% · 18h0.15%18h★ BEST0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.05% · 20h0.05% · 20h0.05%20h-0.20% · 21h-0.20% · 21h-0.20%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.10%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 3BREADTH17% up · 21% down · 63% flat
4 up bars · 5 down · best 0.15% · worst -0.35% · typical |Δ| 0.069%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.95%)FINAL-0.95%MAX DD-1.10%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9905 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9890, 1.0000]1.00000.9890break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.10% · moderate0%-1.10%▼ TROUGH -1.10%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.10%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.10%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9905 (-0.95%) · max DD -1.10% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −10 (37% positive) · μ=-13.94 · σ=59.35MIXED EDGELAST -26.58 (-0.21σ vs μ)113.9756.990.00-56.99-113.97μ = -13.94-81.12-81.12-81.12-81.12-81.12-81.12-113.97-113.97-83.90-83.90-60.04-60.04-30.44-30.44-30.44-30.44-30.44-30.4438.2138.2155.9355.9355.9355.9358.6858.6858.6858.6873.9973.9912.8812.880.000.000.000.00-26.58-26.58v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -26.579 · range [-113.97, 73.99] · μ -13.940 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=10.0693 · σ=4.2198 · range [1.9105, 15.6614] · R²=0.333▼ FALLING -42.78%σ EXTREME 41.91%LAST 8.239515.661412.22378.78605.34821.9105μ = 10.0693max 15.6614min 1.9105dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 8.24% · range [1.91%, 15.66%] · μ 10.07% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.147 · σ=0.303MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.371 (-0.74σ vs μ)0.7500.3750.000-0.375-0.750μ = -0.1470.5610.5610.2790.2790.2790.2790.1230.123-0.125-0.125-0.352-0.352-0.173-0.173-0.148-0.1480.0040.004-0.233-0.233-0.214-0.214-0.357-0.357-0.267-0.267-0.550-0.550-0.750-0.750-0.186-0.186-0.154-0.154-0.154-0.154-0.371-0.371v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.371 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
8.0934
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0175
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.7933
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4425
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0465
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2765
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.7671
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0772
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (3 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5410
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0324
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.9310
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0535
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.588 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.58e-6 · top T=24.00h (28.1%) · top-3 cover 56.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)5.3e-64.0e-62.7e-61.3e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.31e-6 · 28.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.31e-6 · 28.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.11e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.11e-6 · 5.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.98e-6 · 10.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.98e-6 · 10.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.16e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.16e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.48e-6 · 7.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.48e-6 · 7.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.05e-6 · 16.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.05e-6 · 16.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.52e-7 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.52e-7 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.35e-7 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.35e-7 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.10e-7 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.10e-7 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.31e-7 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.31e-7 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.61e-7 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.61e-7 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.34e-6 · 12.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.34e-6 · 12.4% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 28.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.892e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1035 bars · effective 1752713 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 4.5 d · σ/bar 0.007pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.07ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0065 · n = 1035✓ n = 1035
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.007pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.03pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move4d
0.07pp
σ × √107.85303027777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.0065
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 1035
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
23.5pp
peak 0.9¢ → trough 0.7¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
153.846
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+15285
$100 wins $15285
FractionalUK
152.85 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$15284.62
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.7%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.057 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.057 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
7.27 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
36317109235579325020128397521762897593005659693125053337956856337913892146678
NO token ID
27186825448281912377549285267678665429040855346605857916194405296090532908896
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 12:08:32 UTC
Snapshot age
16.0s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 12:08:49 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
f91adeb84b641849eef2b58ab03aef663feab7c6d3fda0f10b6a0c1fe36152be · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,748HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.35HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,729.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.006500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1538.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.879
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.950
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-cameron-boozer-be-the-first-pick-in-the-2026-nba-draft/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.117769171183.50bp0.28700040FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.515890783676.97bp0.84800049FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.9101821390279.56bp0.99900086FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0046262883.73bp0.0010005PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0046262883.73bp0.0010005PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0046262883.73bp0.0010005PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,035 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1173.32%
σ per bar = 0.008863
Mean return (annualised)
-0.00%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
23.53%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 216 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-cameron-boozer-be-the-first-pick-in-the-2026-nba-draft/risk · same metrics, JSON