POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
89.0¢
NO · live
11.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-australia-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 8s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
109.30%
max drawdown
2.76%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.60%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.52%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.35%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.17
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.17
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
845
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-australia-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH7.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
89.0¢
NO · live
11.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.8428 · σ=0.0426 · range [0.7800, 0.9050] · R²=0.054▲ RISING +4.09%σ HIGH 5.06%LAST 0.89000.90500.87380.84250.81130.7800μ = 0.8428max 0.9050min 0.7800dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 89.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 89.0%NO 11.0%YES89.0%89.00¢ · odds 1/1.12
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.500 / 1.00 bits (50%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
89.0%89.0¢1.12×▬ +0.00pp
NO
11.0%11.0¢9.09×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=2,950 · μ=122.9 · σ=251.1 · CV=2.04BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120237475712950μ = 12395050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 2950bp moved · peak 950bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
7.8s
▲YES mid
89.00¢ (89.00%)
▼NO mid
11.00¢ (11.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$30.3k
≋liquidity $
$17.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8428 · σ=0.0426 · range [0.7800, 0.9050] · R²=0.054▲ RISING +4.09%σ HIGH 5.06%LAST 0.89000.90500.87380.84250.81130.7800μ = 0.8428max 0.9050min 0.7800dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 89.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1572 · σ=0.0426 · range [0.0950, 0.2200] · R²=0.054▼ FALLING -24.14%σ EXTREME 27.11%LAST 0.11000.22000.18880.15750.12630.0950μ = 0.1572max 0.2200min 0.0950dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 11.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0013 · σ=0.0262 · skew=0.37 (symmetric) · kurt=4.82 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107301-7.60ppbin -7.60pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -7.60pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-5.80pp-4.00pp2-2.20ppbin -2.20pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin -2.20pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak13-0.40ppbin -0.40pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin -0.40pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak61.40ppbin 1.40pp · n=6 · 46.2% peakbin 1.40pp · n=6 · 46.2% peak13.20ppbin 3.20pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 3.20pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak5.00pp6.80pp18.60ppbin 8.60pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 8.60pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.37 · kurt=6.80 · near 5 / mid 17 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.81 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.69)
μ MEAN84.28¢95% CI: [82.61¢, 85.95¢]
σ STD DEV4.26ppσ² = 18.168 · CV = 5.06%
med MEDIAN86.00¢Q₁ 79.50¢ · Q₃ 88.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 12.50pp · IQR 9.00pp (1.349σ→5.75pp)
min 78.00¢Q₁ 79.50¢med 86.00¢Q₃ 88.50¢max 90.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.143approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.691platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.40
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.64
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.93
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.080within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.091lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.557persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.143fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.557
H = 0.557PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.080k=2-0.091k=3+0.050k=4-0.022k=5-0.0030+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.14)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.20moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.14)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2070744
SLUGwill-australia-a…fa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (89¢)
PRIMARY · YES89.00¢implied prob 89.00% · decimal odds 1.12×
COUNTER · NO11.00¢implied prob 11.00% · decimal odds 9.09×
89.00¢
11.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME30.33k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY17.33k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (89¢)|primary − counter| = 0.780 · entropy 0.500 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 89.0%NO 11.0%YES p̂89.0%H = 0.500 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.12×(89¢)NO9.09×(11¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.500 bits (50% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-28 00:00 UTC
7days
12hrs
51min
7.54 days·θ = 20.882 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 89.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 11.0%)
current: $0.8900 · expected return per side: $0.11 on YES hit · $0.89 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+3.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=4.26% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 20.882 pp/day
now7.54d left
20.882 pp/day×1.00
−25%5.65d left
24.112 pp/day×1.15
−50%3.77d left
29.531 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.88d left
41.763 pp/day×2.00
−90%18.09h left
66.033 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 9.50% · worst -8.50% · typical |Δ| 1.23%MILD BULLISH +3.50%BEST+9.50%18hWORST-8.50%8hTYPICAL |Δ|1.23%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+3.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.87% · Σ -7.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +1.19% · Σ +9.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +3.50%+5.00%-7.50%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.50% · 2h0.50% · 2h0.50%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-8.50% · 8h-8.50% · 8h-8.50%8h▼ WORST3.00% · 9h3.00% · 9h3.00%9h-1.50% · 10h-1.50% · 10h-1.50%10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h0.50% · 12h0.50% · 12h0.50%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-0.50% · 16h-0.50% · 16h-0.50%16h1.00% · 17h1.00% · 17h1.00%17h9.50% · 18h9.50% · 18h9.50%18h★ BEST1.00% · 19h1.00% · 19h1.00%19h-2.00% · 20h-2.00% · 20h-2.00%20h0.50% · 21h0.50% · 21h0.50%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+9.50%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH33% up · 21% down · 46% flat
8 up bars · 5 down · best 9.50% · worst -8.50% · typical |Δ| 1.229%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +2.63%FINAL+2.63%MAX DD-8.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 10 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.21%UNDERWATER15/25 (60%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0263 · peak 1.0421 · range [0.9242, 1.0421]1.04210.9242break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0421UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -8.50% · significant0%-8.50%▼ TROUGH -8.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -8.50%bar 9-18 · 10 bars · recovered#2 -2.00%bar 21-25 · 5 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -8.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER60% of session · 15/25 bars
final equity 1.0263 (2.63%) · max DD -8.50% · time-under-water 15/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=8.90 · σ=35.11MIXED EDGELAST -7.64 (-0.47σ vs μ)60.4230.210.00-30.21-60.42μ = 8.9060.4260.4260.4260.42-35.49-35.49-19.83-19.83-25.89-25.89-28.04-28.04-28.04-28.04-28.04-28.0415.5115.51-33.95-33.95-20.72-20.7230.2130.2140.3240.3245.1145.1134.4634.4636.6636.6639.0439.0434.6734.67-7.64-7.64v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -7.642 · range [-35.49, 60.42] · μ 8.904 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=253.7474 · σ=152.9929 · range [24.1661, 381.3345] · R²=0.041▲ RISING +295.28%σ EXTREME 60.29%LAST 95.5249381.3345292.0424202.7503113.458224.1661μ = 253.7474max 381.3345min 24.1661dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 95.52% · range [24.17%, 381.33%] · μ 253.75% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.230 · σ=0.239MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.601 (-1.56σ vs μ)0.6010.3010.000-0.301-0.601μ = -0.230-0.333-0.333-0.333-0.333-0.018-0.018-0.425-0.425-0.477-0.477-0.511-0.511-0.522-0.522-0.384-0.384-0.324-0.3240.1840.184-0.304-0.304-0.333-0.3330.0720.072-0.044-0.044-0.027-0.027-0.025-0.025-0.022-0.0220.0610.061-0.601-0.601v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.601 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
77.4074
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.5000
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9901
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.4277
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5678
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.1356
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2561
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2371
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2920
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2928
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7696
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.911 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.60e-4 · top T=3.00h (19.4%) · top-3 cover 48.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.8e-31.3e-38.8e-44.4e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.86e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.86e-4 · 10.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.98e-4 · 4.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.98e-4 · 4.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.09e-4 · 6.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.09e-4 · 6.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.64e-4 · 10.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.64e-4 · 10.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.50e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.50e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.65e-3 · 18.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.65e-3 · 18.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.15e-5 · 0.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.15e-5 · 0.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.77e-3 · 19.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.77e-3 · 19.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.97e-4 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.97e-4 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.98e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.98e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.02e-3 · 11.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.02e-3 · 11.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 1.9% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 19.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.125e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (845 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 7.5 d · σ/bar 0.083pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.11ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0979 · n = 845✓ n = 845
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.083pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.40pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move8d
1.11pp
σ × √180.86043194444443
Terminal variancebinary
0.0979
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
89.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.14pp · ES₉₅ 0.17pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 845
VaR 95%
0.14pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.17pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
2.8pp
peak 90.5¢ → trough 88.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
89.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.124
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-809
risk $809 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.12 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$12.36
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 89.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.500 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.500 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.17 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
3.18 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
101544960377711057224126048992486975209284342897234008093218767137065287603103
NO token ID
53730364769923629474485347850220408459262112230025348951624712162010548081294
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:08:14 UTC
Snapshot age
7.8s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:08:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
1e485836b7e5c9fe731864975457270856f60f1760cd6fddc86ede45bcc10d3c · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,626HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.64HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,727.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.890000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
224.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.014
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.597
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-australia-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.900000112.36bp0.9000001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.907790199.89bp0.9100002FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.914604276.45bp0.9900009PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.870344220.85bp0.8700002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.845870495.85bp0.8100008FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.4997304385.05bp0.01000056PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 845 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
122.54%
σ per bar = 0.000926
Mean return (annualised)
1169.90%
μ per bar = 0.000007
Sharpe (rf=0)
9.55
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.76%
peak 0.91 → trough 0.88 over 188 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-australia-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON