POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · STARMER OUT BY...?

Starmer out by October 31, 2026?

YES · live
93.5¢
NO · live
6.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · starmer-out-by-october-31-2026-896-929 · fresh · feed 7s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
29.26%
max drawdown
1.06%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.62%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.40%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.06%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1023
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-starmer-out-by-october-31-2026-896-929/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH7.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
93.5¢
NO · live
6.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.9322 · σ=0.0140 · range [0.8900, 0.9450] · R²=0.536▲ RISING +5.06%σ NORMAL 1.50%LAST 0.93500.94500.93120.91750.90380.8900μ = 0.9322max 0.9450min 0.8900dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 93.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 93.5%NO 6.5%YES93.5%93.50¢ · odds 1/1.07
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.347 / 1.00 bits (35%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
93.5%93.5¢1.07×▬ +0.00pp
NO
6.5%6.5¢15.38×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,350 · μ=56.2 · σ=57.7 · CV=1.03BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=703875113150μ = 5615050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1350bp moved · peak 150bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
7.2s
▲YES mid
93.50¢ (93.50%)
▼NO mid
6.50¢ (6.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$17.7k
≋liquidity $
$62.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9322 · σ=0.0140 · range [0.8900, 0.9450] · R²=0.536▲ RISING +5.06%σ NORMAL 1.50%LAST 0.93500.94500.93120.91750.90380.8900μ = 0.9322max 0.9450min 0.8900dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 93.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0678 · σ=0.0140 · range [0.0550, 0.1100] · R²=0.536▼ FALLING -40.91%σ EXTREME 20.65%LAST 0.06500.11000.09630.08250.06880.0550μ = 0.0678max 0.1100min 0.0550dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 6.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0025 · σ=0.0072 · skew=-0.18 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.50 (mesokurtic)1085301-1.35ppbin -1.35pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -1.35pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak1-1.05ppbin -1.05pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -1.05pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak-0.75pp4-0.45ppbin -0.45pp · n=4 · 40.0% peakbin -0.45pp · n=4 · 40.0% peak-0.15pp100.15ppbin 0.15pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.15pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak10.45ppbin 0.45pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.45pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak0.75pp41.05ppbin 1.05pp · n=4 · 40.0% peakbin 1.05pp · n=4 · 40.0% peak31.35ppbin 1.35pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin 1.35pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.10 · kurt=-0.50 · near 15 / mid 9 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.31)
μ MEAN93.22¢95% CI: [92.67¢, 93.77¢]
σ STD DEV1.40ppσ² = 1.960 · CV = 1.50%
med MEDIAN93.50¢Q₁ 92.50¢ · Q₃ 94.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 5.50pp · IQR 2.00pp (1.349σ→1.89pp)
min 89.00¢Q₁ 92.50¢med 93.50¢Q₃ 94.50¢max 94.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.311left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.243leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.94
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.93
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.232within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.212lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.998strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+5.152significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.998
H = 0.998STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=4
k=1-0.232k=2+0.212k=3+0.175k=4 ★-0.439k=5+0.3260+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.15)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.23 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.15)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2481544
SLUGstarmer-out-by-october-31-2026-896-929
CATEGORYStarmer out by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (94¢)
PRIMARY · YES93.50¢implied prob 93.50% · decimal odds 1.07×
COUNTER · NO6.50¢implied prob 6.50% · decimal odds 15.38×
93.50¢
6.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME17.67k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY62.61k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (94¢)|primary − counter| = 0.870 · entropy 0.347 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 93.5%NO 6.5%YES p̂93.5%H = 0.347 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.07×(94¢)NO15.38×(7¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.347 bits (35% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-31 12:00 UTC
40days
23hrs
58min
41.00 days·θ = 6.859 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 93.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 6.5%)
current: $0.9350 · expected return per side: $0.06 on YES hit · $0.94 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+20.5dRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.40% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 6.859 pp/day
now41.00d left
6.859 pp/day×1.00
−25%30.75d left
7.920 pp/day×1.15
−50%20.50d left
9.699 pp/day×1.41
−75%10.25d left
13.717 pp/day×2.00
−90%4.10d left
21.689 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.50% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.56%MILD BULLISH +4.50%BEST+1.50%1hWORST-1.50%7hTYPICAL |Δ|0.56%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+4.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.43% · Σ +3.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.31% · Σ +2.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -1.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +4.50%+5.50%0.00%1.50% · 1h1.50% · 1h1.50%1h★ BEST1.00% · 2h1.00% · 2h1.00%2h0.50% · 3h0.50% · 3h0.50%3h1.50% · 4h1.50% · 4h1.50%4h-1.00% · 5h-1.00% · 5h-1.00%5h1.00% · 6h1.00% · 6h1.00%6h-1.50% · 7h-1.50% · 7h-1.50%7h▼ WORST0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h1.50% · 9h1.50% · 9h1.50%9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h1.00% · 11h1.00% · 11h1.00%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-0.50% · 13h-0.50% · 13h-0.50%13h1.00% · 14h1.00% · 14h1.00%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.50% · 21h-0.50% · 21h-0.50%21h-0.50% · 22h-0.50% · 22h-0.50%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+3.00%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH33% up · 25% down · 42% flat
8 up bars · 6 down · best 1.50% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 0.562%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +4.52% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+4.52%MAX DD-1.51%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+5.58%UNDERWATER11/25 (44%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0452 · peak 1.0558 · range [1.0000, 1.0558]1.05581.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0558UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.51% · moderate0%-1.51%▼ TROUGH -1.51%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -1.51%bar 6-11 · 6 bars · recovered#2 -1.00%bar 22-25 · 4 bars · ONGOING#3 -0.50%bar 14-14 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.51%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER44% of session · 11/25 bars
final equity 1.0452 (4.52%) · max DD -1.51% · time-under-water 11/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −5 (68% positive) · μ=6.62 · σ=37.48PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -60.42 (-1.79σ vs μ)75.0437.520.00-37.52-75.04μ = 6.6275.0475.0419.2719.276.736.7318.0818.08-6.73-6.7320.7220.727.307.3028.4828.4845.2845.2822.8322.8338.2138.2115.8715.8715.8715.8738.2138.210.000.00-38.21-38.21-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -60.415 · range [-60.42, 75.04] · μ 6.616 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=65.5501 · σ=37.9251 · range [0.0000, 121.1322] · R²=0.853▼ FALLING -72.40%σ EXTREME 57.86%LAST 24.1661121.132290.849160.566130.28300.0000μ = 65.5501max 121.1322min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.85μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 24.17% · range [0.00%, 121.13%] · μ 65.55% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −15 (16% positive) · μ=-0.272 · σ=0.292MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.167 (+1.50σ vs μ)0.5480.2740.000-0.274-0.548μ = -0.272-0.414-0.414-0.449-0.449-0.486-0.486-0.440-0.440-0.473-0.473-0.422-0.422-0.249-0.249-0.537-0.537-0.519-0.519-0.548-0.548-0.367-0.367-0.454-0.454-0.489-0.489-0.033-0.0330.0000.000-0.033-0.0330.4170.4170.1670.1670.1670.167v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.167 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1464
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9294
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
13.1637
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0218
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.8249
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0031
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.2191
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2228
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6776
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0156
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8589
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3904
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.739 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.11e-5 · top T=2.67h (30.0%) · top-3 cover 67.2%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.2e-41.7e-41.1e-45.5e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.71e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.71e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.46e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 8.46e-5 · 11.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.04e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.04e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.98e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.98e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.73e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.73e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.21e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.21e-6 · 0.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.16e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.16e-6 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.20e-4 · 30.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.20e-4 · 30.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.82e-4 · 24.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.82e-4 · 24.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.17e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.17e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.60e-5 · 3.6% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=2.40h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 30.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.333e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1023 bars · effective 1752713 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 41.0 d · σ/bar 0.022pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.69ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0608 · n = 1023✓ n = 1023
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.022pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.11pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move41d
0.69pp
σ × √983.9705519444444
Terminal variancebinary
0.0608
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
93.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.04pp · ES₉₅ 0.05pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 1023
VaR 95%
0.04pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.05pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
1.1pp
peak 94.5¢ → trough 93.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
93.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.070
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-1438
risk $1438 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.07 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$6.95
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 93.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.347 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.347 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.10 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
3.94 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
27357877897866246704108741817393548297190385468618028094122387972939664635133
NO token ID
95764299349620856276030593005968183317587101640490436055926977407525041817653
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 12:01:38 UTC
Snapshot age
7.2s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 12:01:46 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
68c99ff58a4fd45f82048c1e3cef8e12f86a8ce61185aa81b7bb89917ca46523 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,660HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.08HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,727

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Starmer out by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.935000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
107.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.962
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.181
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-starmer-out-by-october-31-2026-896-929/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.94386594.81bp0.9500002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.958970256.36bp0.9800005FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.968395357.16bp0.9900006PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.93000053.48bp0.9300001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.93000053.48bp0.9300001FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0717979232.11bp0.01000059PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,023 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
31.14%
σ per bar = 0.000235
Mean return (annualised)
-1824.47%
μ per bar = -0.000010
Sharpe (rf=0)
-58.59
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.06%
peak 0.94 → trough 0.94 over 713 bars

/api/asset/pm-starmer-out-by-october-31-2026-896-929/risk · same metrics, JSON