POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · STARMER OUT BY...?
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
56.5¢
43.5¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548-219-739-726 · fresh · feed 16s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
266.73%
max drawdown
15.27%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
8.70%
RMS drawdown
pain index
7.07%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.31%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
15.27%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.41
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.41
upside/downside
roll spread
4.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
553
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548-219-739-726/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
56.5¢
NO · live
43.5¢
25 ticks · last 56.50¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.988 / 1.00 bits (99%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES56.5%56.5¢1.77×▬ +0.00pp
NO43.5%43.5¢2.30×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 7600bp moved · peak 1600bp · n=24 ticks
16.2s
56.50¢ (56.50%)
43.50¢ (43.50%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$449.7k
$91.4k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 56.50¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 43.50¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.85)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.850left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.964mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.846STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
56.50¢
43.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES1.77×(56¢)NO2.30×(44¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.988 bits (99% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-30 12:00 UTC
10days
02hrs
19min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.5650 · expected return per side: $0.44 on YES hit · $0.56 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 64.618 pp/day
now10.10d left64.618 pp/day×1.00
−25%7.57d left74.614 pp/day×1.15
−50%5.05d left91.383 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.52d left129.236 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.01d left204.339 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
11 up bars · 9 down · best 16.00% · worst -7.00% · typical |Δ| 3.167%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.2493 (24.93%) · max DD -12.46% · time-under-water 17/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest -43.143 · range [-73.99, 68.69] · μ 2.740 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 270.72% · range [39.15%, 760.37%] · μ 363.05% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.228 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
3 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence3 reject·3 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
18.1827
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
REJECT H₀*H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
12.1186
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0330
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-1.9254
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3308
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
0.0464
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9630
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀*H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.6254
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0203
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
-0.4922
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6226
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 32.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.822e-2
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (553 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 10.1 d · σ/bar 0.202pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.14ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2458 · n = 553✓ n = 553
μ per bar
-0.014pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.202pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.99pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move10d
3.14pp
σ × √242.32316916666667
Terminal variancebinary
0.2458
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
56.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.35pp · ES₉₅ 0.43pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.014pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 553
VaR 95%
0.35pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.43pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
15.3pp
peak 65.5¢ → trough 55.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
56.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.770
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-130
risk $130 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.77 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$76.99
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.988 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.988 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.82 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.20 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
34554555827438551101000555305203609600029621153428996114009350892614396532498- NO token ID
64622848174080349355505680625481066249195809702245025265549356236367119746958- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-20 09:40:20 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 16.2s
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-20 09:40:36 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
b643418c73c7a0f8e3b322a89a4e481f311345c118bcb0d281afbdf20e520cd2· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.3¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,615HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.71HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,727.6
Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Starmer out by...?
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.565000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
177.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.510
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.014
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548-219-739-726/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.570000 | 88.50bp | 0.570000 | 1 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.577211 | 216.12bp | 0.600000 | 4 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.796095 | 4090.17bp | 0.930000 | 33 | FILLED |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.560000 | 88.50bp | 0.560000 | 1 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.539998 | 442.50bp | 0.510000 | 6 | FILLED |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.054030 | 9043.72bp | 0.010000 | 47 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 553 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
441.29%
σ per bar = 0.003333
Mean return (annualised)
-42042.85%
μ per bar = -0.000240
Sharpe (rf=0)
-95.27
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
15.27%
peak 0.66 → trough 0.56 over 381 bars
/api/asset/pm-starmer-out-by-june-30-2026-862-594-548-219-739-726/risk · same metrics, JSON