POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · STARMER OUT BY...?

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

YES · live
17.5¢
NO · live
82.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · starmer-out-by-june-22-2026 · fresh · feed 12s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
154.63%
max drawdown
22.22%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
13.58%
RMS drawdown
pain index
10.02%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
22.22%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.09
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.09
upside/downside
roll spread
9.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
548
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-starmer-out-by-june-22-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING12.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
17.5¢
NO · live
82.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=17 · μ=0.2235 · σ=0.0451 · range [0.1200, 0.2850] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -12.82%σ EXTREME 20.16%LAST 0.17000.28500.24370.20250.16130.1200μ = 0.2235max 0.2850min 0.1200dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
17 ticks · last 17.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 17.5%NO 82.5%NO82.5%82.50¢ · odds 1/1.21
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.669 / 1.00 bits (67%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
17.5%17.5¢5.71×▬ +0.00pp
NO
82.5%82.5¢1.21×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=16 · Σ=3,750 · μ=234.4 · σ=224.1 · CV=0.96BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=30188375563750μ = 23475050%h1h3h5h7h9h11h13h15#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 3750bp moved · peak 750bp · n=16 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
12.3s
▲YES mid
17.50¢ (17.50%)
▼NO mid
82.50¢ (82.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$81.3k
≋liquidity $
$45.7k
◳history points
17 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=17 · μ=0.2235 · σ=0.0451 · range [0.1200, 0.2850] · R²=0.000▼ FALLING -12.82%σ EXTREME 20.16%LAST 0.17000.28500.24370.20250.16130.1200μ = 0.2235max 0.2850min 0.1200dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
17 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 17.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=17 · μ=0.7762 · σ=0.0449 · range [0.7150, 0.8800] · R²=0.001▲ RISING +3.11%σ HIGH 5.79%LAST 0.83000.88000.83870.79750.75620.7150μ = 0.7762max 0.8800min 0.7150dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
17 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 83.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=16 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0016 · σ=0.0307 · skew=0.23 (symmetric) · kurt=0.17 (mesokurtic)432101-6.78ppbin -6.78pp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -6.78pp · n=1 · 25.0% peak-5.33pp-3.88pp4-2.43ppbin -2.43pp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -2.43pp · n=4 · 100.0% peak4-0.98ppbin -0.98pp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -0.98pp · n=4 · 100.0% peak30.47ppbin 0.47pp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 0.47pp · n=3 · 75.0% peak11.92ppbin 1.92pp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 1.92pp · n=1 · 25.0% peak13.37ppbin 3.37pp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 3.37pp · n=1 · 25.0% peak14.82ppbin 4.82pp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 4.82pp · n=1 · 25.0% peak16.27ppbin 6.27pp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 6.27pp · n=1 · 25.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=16
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=16 · skew=0.17 · kurt=0.77 · near 11 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=17LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.60)
μ MEAN22.35¢95% CI: [20.21¢, 24.50¢]
σ STD DEV4.51ppσ² = 20.305 · CV = 20.16%
med MEDIAN23.00¢Q₁ 19.50¢ · Q₃ 26.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 16.50pp · IQR 7.00pp (1.349σ→6.08pp)
min 12.00¢Q₁ 19.50¢med 23.00¢Q₃ 26.50¢max 28.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.604left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.598mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.14
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.87
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.66
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.195within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.208lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.865strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.074fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.865
H = 0.865STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.195k=2-0.208k=3-0.121k=4+0.081k=5-0.0480+1−1+0.50−0.50+ momentum (ρ > +0.50)− reversal (ρ < −0.50)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.07)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.92very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.07)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2608699
SLUGstarmer-out-by-june-22-2026
CATEGORYStarmer out by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (83¢)
PRIMARY · YES17.50¢implied prob 17.50% · decimal odds 5.71×
COUNTER · NO82.50¢implied prob 82.50% · decimal odds 1.21×
17.50¢
82.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME81.29k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY45.73k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (83¢)|primary − counter| = 0.650 · entropy 0.669 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 17.5%NO 82.5%YES p̂17.5%H = 0.669 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES5.71×(18¢)NO1.21×(83¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.669 bits (67% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · MEDIUMresolves 2026-06-22 12:00 UTC
2days
02hrs
20min
2.10 days·θ = 22.075 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 17.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 82.5%)
current: $0.1750 · expected return per side: $0.82 on YES hit · $0.17 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.0dRESOLVESP projection · σ=4.51% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 22.075 pp/day
now2.10d left
22.075 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.57d left
25.490 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.05d left
31.219 pp/day×1.41
−75%12.59h left
44.151 pp/day×2.00
−90%5.03h left
69.809 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=16 bars · best 7.00% · worst -7.50% · typical |Δ| 2.34%BEARISH SESSION -2.50%BEST+7.00%3hWORST-7.50%1hTYPICAL |Δ|2.34%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +1.29% · Σ +9.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -1.25% · Σ -10.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -1.50% · Σ -1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.50%+9.00%-7.50%-7.50% · 1h-7.50% · 1h-7.50%1h▼ WORST4.50% · 2h4.50% · 2h4.50%2h7.00% · 3h7.00% · 3h7.00%3h★ BEST3.50% · 4h3.50% · 4h3.50%4h-0.50% · 5h-0.50% · 5h-0.50%5h0.50% · 6h0.50% · 6h0.50%6h1.50% · 7h1.50% · 7h1.50%7h-2.00% · 8h-2.00% · 8h-2.00%8h-1.00% · 9h-1.00% · 9h-1.00%9h-2.00% · 10h-2.00% · 10h-2.00%10h-1.00% · 11h-1.00% · 11h-1.00%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.50% · 13h0.50% · 13h0.50%13h-2.50% · 14h-2.50% · 14h-2.50%14h-2.00% · 15h-2.00% · 15h-2.00%15h-1.50% · 16h-1.50% · 16h-1.50%16hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+9.00%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH38% up · 56% down · 6% flat
6 up bars · 9 down · best 7.00% · worst -7.50% · typical |Δ| 2.344%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=17 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -3.26%FINAL-3.26%MAX DD-10.97%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+8.65%UNDERWATER13/17 (76%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9674 · peak 1.0865 · range [0.9250, 1.0865]1.08650.9250break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0865UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -10.97% · significant0%-10.97%▼ TROUGH -10.97%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -10.97%bar 9-17 · 9 bars · ONGOING#2 -7.50%bar 2-3 · 2 bars · recovered#3 -0.50%bar 6-7 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -10.97%)RECOVERYongoing · 9 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 13/17 bars
final equity 0.9674 (-3.26%) · max DD -10.97% · time-under-water 13/17 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 4 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=13 · +4 / −9 (31% positive) · μ=-32.32 · σ=92.75UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -97.87 (-0.71σ vs μ)243.17121.580.00-121.58-243.17μ = -32.3227.3327.33108.77108.7772.7872.7868.5068.50-7.84-7.84-15.05-15.05-49.57-49.57-243.17-243.17-114.63-114.63-52.76-52.76-53.06-53.06-63.59-63.59-97.87-97.87v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -97.867 · range [-243.17, 108.77] · μ -32.319 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=13 · μ=186.7269 · σ=144.9403 · range [54.0370, 600.9721] · R²=0.501▼ FALLING -79.52%σ EXTREME 77.62%LAST 123.0752600.9721464.2384327.5046190.770854.0370μ = 186.7269max 600.9721min 54.0370dataMA(2)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 123.08% · range [54.04%, 600.97%] · μ 186.73% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=13 · +5 / −8 (38% positive) · μ=-0.123 · σ=0.283CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.256 (-0.47σ vs μ)0.7500.3750.000-0.375-0.750μ = -0.123-0.023-0.0230.1040.1040.2260.226-0.321-0.321-0.339-0.339-0.060-0.060-0.292-0.292-0.750-0.7500.0000.0000.2670.267-0.274-0.2740.1150.115-0.256-0.256v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.256 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.7615
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4145
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.1614
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8279
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2730
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6395
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.6720
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5016
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1573
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4313
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.3214
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7479
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.080 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=8 bins · noise floor μ=1.02e-3 · top T=8.00h (24.4%) · top-3 cover 59.1%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)2.0e-31.5e-31.0e-35.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 16.0 · power 1.56e-3 · 19.0% energyperiod 16.0 · power 1.56e-3 · 19.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.00e-3 · 24.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.00e-3 · 24.4% energyperiod 5.3 · power 1.28e-3 · 15.6% energyperiod 5.3 · power 1.28e-3 · 15.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.23e-3 · 15.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.23e-3 · 15.0% energyperiod 3.2 · power 1.12e-3 · 13.6% energyperiod 3.2 · power 1.12e-3 · 13.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.00e-4 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.00e-4 · 3.7% energyperiod 2.3 · power 6.31e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.3 · power 6.31e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.66e-5 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.66e-5 · 0.9% energy50% by T=5.3h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=16.00h#3T=5.33hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 24.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.181e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (548 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 2.1 d · σ/bar 0.117pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.83ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1444 · n = 548✓ n = 548
μ per bar
-0.009pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.117pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.57pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move2d
0.83pp
σ × √50.34428305555556
Terminal variancebinary
0.1444
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
17.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.20pp · ES₉₅ 0.25pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.009pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 548
VaR 95%
0.20pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.25pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
22.2pp
peak 22.5¢ → trough 17.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
17.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
5.714
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+471
$100 wins $471
FractionalUK
4.71 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$471.43
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 17.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.669 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.669 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.51 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.28 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
10366655527710325620489186009865558124522469346438432640220839761859819579901
NO token ID
66281865820221101465502031848781104909492092746392448308186834886808673662444
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 09:39:08 UTC
Snapshot age
12.3s
History points
17 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 09:39:20 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7a6120f9d6e2e4fd1529b762087fb4c2186f2278b94bb1966a8efe1f0151bb21 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.3¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,621HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.67HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,728.3

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Starmer out by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.170000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1176.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.574
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.189
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-starmer-out-by-june-22-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.185629919.36bp0.1900002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.2902977076.32bp0.63000021FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.71076331809.61bp0.99000048FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.1411551696.74bp0.1100005FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0537796836.51bp0.01000015PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0537796836.51bp0.01000015PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 548 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
761.62%
σ per bar = 0.005753
Mean return (annualised)
-80517.95%
μ per bar = -0.000459
Sharpe (rf=0)
-105.72
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
22.22%
peak 0.23 → trough 0.17 over 443 bars

/api/asset/pm-starmer-out-by-june-22-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON