POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · STARMER OUT BY...?

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

YES · live
86.5¢
NO · live
13.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · starmer-out-by-december-31-2026-936-416-977-234-134-475-773-619 · fresh · feed 17s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 4.85%
realized vol (ann.)
87.58%
max drawdown
2.30%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.96%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.80%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.30%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.91
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.91
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
4.85%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change +4.85%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-starmer-out-by-december-31-2026-936-416-977-234-134-475-773-619/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING17.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
86.5¢
NO · live
13.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.8500 · σ=0.0147 · range [0.8250, 0.8700] · R²=0.813▲ RISING +4.85%σ NORMAL 1.73%LAST 0.86500.87000.85880.84750.83620.8250μ = 0.8500max 0.8700min 0.8250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.81μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 86.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 86.5%NO 13.5%YES86.5%86.50¢ · odds 1/1.16
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.571 / 1.00 bits (57%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
86.5%86.5¢1.16×▬ +0.00pp
NO
13.5%13.5¢7.41×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,200 · μ=50.0 · σ=69.2 · CV=1.38BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13075150225300μ = 5030050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1200bp moved · peak 300bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
17.2s
▲YES mid
86.50¢ (86.50%)
▼NO mid
13.50¢ (13.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$23.7k
≋liquidity $
$104.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8500 · σ=0.0147 · range [0.8250, 0.8700] · R²=0.813▲ RISING +4.85%σ NORMAL 1.73%LAST 0.86500.87000.85880.84750.83620.8250μ = 0.8500max 0.8700min 0.8250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.81μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 86.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1500 · σ=0.0147 · range [0.1300, 0.1750] · R²=0.813▼ FALLING -22.86%σ HIGH 9.81%LAST 0.13500.17500.16380.15250.14120.1300μ = 0.1500max 0.1750min 0.1300dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.81μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 13.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0020 · σ=0.0078 · skew=1.68 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.99 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1186302-0.80ppbin -0.80pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin -0.80pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak4-0.40ppbin -0.40pp · n=4 · 36.4% peakbin -0.40pp · n=4 · 36.4% peak110.00ppbin 0.00pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 0.00pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak30.40ppbin 0.40pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin 0.40pp · n=3 · 27.3% peak0.80pp21.20ppbin 1.20pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin 1.20pp · n=2 · 18.2% peak11.60ppbin 1.60pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 1.60pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak2.00pp2.40pp12.80ppbin 2.80pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 2.80pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.63 · kurt=3.58 · near 14 / mid 9 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.93 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.33)
μ MEAN85.00¢95% CI: [84.42¢, 85.58¢]
σ STD DEV1.47ppσ² = 2.167 · CV = 1.73%
med MEDIAN85.00¢Q₁ 84.00¢ · Q₃ 86.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 4.50pp · IQR 2.50pp (1.349σ→1.99pp)
min 82.50¢Q₁ 84.00¢med 85.00¢Q₃ 86.50¢max 87.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.282approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.330platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.00
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.79
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.06
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.43 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.425negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.029lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.018strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+10.015significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.018
H = 1.018STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.425k=2-0.029k=3-0.133k=4+0.248k=5-0.2380+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.02)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.43 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.02)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID666655
SLUGstarmer-out-by-d…-475-773-619
CATEGORYStarmer out by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (87¢)
PRIMARY · YES86.50¢implied prob 86.50% · decimal odds 1.16×
COUNTER · NO13.50¢implied prob 13.50% · decimal odds 7.41×
86.50¢
13.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME23.70k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY104.14k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (87¢)|primary − counter| = 0.730 · entropy 0.571 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 86.5%NO 13.5%YES p̂86.5%H = 0.571 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.16×(87¢)NO7.41×(14¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.571 bits (57% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 12:00 UTC
195days
23hrs
00min
195.96 days·θ = 7.211 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 86.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 13.5%)
current: $0.8650 · expected return per side: $0.14 on YES hit · $0.86 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+98.0dRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.47% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 7.211 pp/day
now195.96d left
7.211 pp/day×1.00
−25%146.97d left
8.327 pp/day×1.15
−50%97.98d left
10.198 pp/day×1.41
−75%48.99d left
14.422 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.60d left
22.804 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.50%MILD BULLISH +4.00%BEST+3.00%13hWORST-1.00%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.50%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+4.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.29% · Σ +2.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +4.00%+4.50%0.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h1.00% · 3h1.00% · 3h1.00%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h1.00% · 6h1.00% · 6h1.00%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.50% · 9h0.50% · 9h0.50%9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h3.00% · 13h3.00% · 13h3.00%13h★ BEST-1.00% · 14h-1.00% · 14h-1.00%14h▼ WORST0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.50% · 17h0.50% · 17h0.50%17h-0.50% · 18h-0.50% · 18h-0.50%18h0.50% · 19h0.50% · 19h0.50%19h-1.00% · 20h-1.00% · 20h-1.00%20h1.50% · 21h1.50% · 21h1.50%21h-0.50% · 22h-0.50% · 22h-0.50%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+2.00%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH29% up · 25% down · 46% flat
7 up bars · 6 down · best 3.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.500%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +3.99% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+3.99%MAX DD-1.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.54%UNDERWATER14/25 (56%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0399 · peak 1.0454 · range [1.0000, 1.0454]1.04541.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0454UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.50% · moderate0%-1.50%▼ TROUGH -1.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.50%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.00%bar 11-13 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER56% of session · 14/25 bars
final equity 1.0399 (3.99%) · max DD -1.50% · time-under-water 14/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +15 / −3 (79% positive) · μ=20.68 · σ=24.89PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 9.06 (-0.47σ vs μ)60.4230.210.00-30.21-60.42μ = 20.6860.4260.4260.4260.4260.4260.4255.9355.9330.2130.2113.3413.34-20.72-20.7229.5529.5516.2416.2410.8510.8516.6516.6528.7428.7422.2522.25-13.34-13.34-13.34-13.3417.8217.828.508.500.000.009.069.06v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 9.057 · range [-20.72, 60.42] · μ 20.683 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=81.4035 · σ=37.2580 · range [35.2278, 134.8221] · R²=0.141▲ RISING +66.77%σ EXTREME 45.77%LAST 80.6040134.8221109.923585.025060.126435.2278μ = 81.4035max 134.8221min 35.2278dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.14μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 80.60% · range [35.23%, 134.82%] · μ 81.40% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.400 · σ=0.233MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.743 (-1.47σ vs μ)0.7840.3920.000-0.392-0.784μ = -0.400-0.333-0.333-0.583-0.583-0.333-0.333-0.357-0.357-0.396-0.396-0.004-0.004-0.069-0.0690.0040.004-0.343-0.343-0.293-0.293-0.361-0.361-0.435-0.435-0.325-0.325-0.297-0.297-0.565-0.565-0.638-0.638-0.784-0.784-0.750-0.750-0.743-0.743v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.743 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
34.7020
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.2363
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0990
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8094
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3860
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.4803
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1388
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8575
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0052
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8206
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0687
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.446 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.21e-5 · top T=2.00h (34.2%) · top-3 cover 55.4%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)3.4e-42.5e-41.7e-48.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.80e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.80e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.13e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.13e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.13e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.13e-5 · 4.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.51e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.51e-5 · 7.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.54e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.54e-5 · 8.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.70e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.70e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.07e-4 · 10.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.07e-4 · 10.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.96e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.96e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.21e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.21e-5 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.01e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.01e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.38e-4 · 34.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.38e-4 · 34.2% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 34.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.854e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 196.0 d · σ/bar 0.074pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 5.09ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1168 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.074pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.36pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move196d
5.09pp
σ × √4703.008455277778
Terminal variancebinary
0.1168
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
86.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.12pp · ES₉₅ 0.15pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.12pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.15pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
2.9pp
peak 87.5¢ → trough 85.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
86.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.156
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-641
risk $641 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.16 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$15.61
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 86.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.571 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.571 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.21 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
2.89 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
42498579290170525937803365597001189493798686141769429176410526295573824619073
NO token ID
88902058027062214140177978007942040532071439710160833384602336149457247354303
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 12:59:12 UTC
Snapshot age
17.2s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 12:59:29 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7f10493623dbaa0d8420fba870ccd1e12f6ede8aa9e36c78d5de7e2fc89ea773 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Starmer out by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.865000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
115.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.580
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.473
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-starmer-out-by-december-31-2026-936-416-977-234-134-475-773-619/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.875622122.80bp0.8800002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.886346246.78bp0.9000004FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.9626281128.65bp0.99000013FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.85913767.78bp0.8500002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.849850175.14bp0.8400003FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.1732087997.59bp0.01000073PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
116.56%
σ per bar = 0.000880
Mean return (annualised)
2520.18%
μ per bar = 0.000014
Sharpe (rf=0)
21.62
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.86%
peak 0.88 → trough 0.85 over 1396 bars

/api/asset/pm-starmer-out-by-december-31-2026-936-416-977-234-134-475-773-619/risk · same metrics, JSON