POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · RUSSIA X UKRAINE CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT BY...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
28.5¢
71.5¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-october-31-2026 · fresh · feed 3s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
562
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-october-31-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
28.5¢
NO · live
71.5¢
25 ticks · last 28.50¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.862 / 1.00 bits (86%) · high uncertainty
YES28.5%28.5¢3.51×▬ +0.00pp
NO71.5%71.5¢1.40×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 700bp moved · peak 100bp · n=24 ticks
3.0s
28.50¢ (28.50%)
71.50¢ (71.50%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$44.3k
$59.1k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 28.50¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 71.50¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.39)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.418approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.393platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejected
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.848STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
28.50¢
71.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES3.51×(28¢)NO1.40×(72¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.862 bits (86% of max) · high uncertainty
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-10-31 00:00 UTC
132days
14hrs
14min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.2850 · expected return per side: $0.72 on YES hit · $0.28 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.881 pp/day
now132.59d left3.881 pp/day×1.00
−25%99.45d left4.481 pp/day×1.15
−50%66.30d left5.488 pp/day×1.41
−75%33.15d left7.761 pp/day×2.00
−90%13.26d left12.272 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
6 up bars · 3 down · best 1.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.292%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.0097 (0.97%) · max DD -1.02% · time-under-water 11/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 0.000 · range [-22.83, 76.42] · μ 18.242 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 0.00% · range [0.00%, 78.31%] · μ 38.16% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest 0.000 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
2.0245
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3634
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
7.8114
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1657
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-1.4309
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5662
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
0.8165
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4142
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀*H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.6580
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0174
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
-0.6137
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5394
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 23.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.000e-4
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3201 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 132.6 d · σ/bar 0.195pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 10.99ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2038 · n = 3201✓ n = 3201
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.195pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.95pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move133d
10.99pp
σ × √3182.2417811111113
Terminal variancebinary
0.2038
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
28.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.32pp · ES₉₅ 0.40pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3201
VaR 95%
0.32pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.40pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
37.0pp
peak 40.5¢ → trough 25.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
28.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.509
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+251
$100 wins $251
FractionalUK
2.51 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$250.88
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.862 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.862 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.81 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.48 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
10861802947610899379330568332287100318869035186187733531205554992019689450318- NO token ID
39319769648132414476170103739900770633009012502056309868976886150530270219889- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-20 09:45:26 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 3.0s
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-20 09:45:29 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
0ca45cf0269a468920f09900246e783c98fc0323ef93e70909fa2d112471ac6c· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.285000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
350.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.758
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.052
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-october-31-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.290940 | 208.42bp | 0.300000 | 2 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.421723 | 4797.31bp | 0.630000 | 30 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.762483 | 16753.79bp | 0.960000 | 63 | FILLED |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.272767 | 429.23bp | 0.270000 | 2 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.149745 | 4745.78bp | 0.070000 | 19 | FILLED |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.025752 | 9096.41bp | 0.010000 | 25 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 3,201 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
769.32%
σ per bar = 0.005811
Mean return (annualised)
-1888.78%
μ per bar = -0.000011
Sharpe (rf=0)
-2.46
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
37.04%
peak 0.41 → trough 0.26 over 2586 bars
/api/asset/pm-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-october-31-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON