POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NORD STREAM PIPELINE TURNED ON BEFORE 2027?
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
5.9¢
94.2¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · nord-stream-pipeline-turned-on-before-2027 · fresh · feed 11s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
155.78%
max drawdown
27.33%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
13.53%
RMS drawdown
pain index
10.65%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
26.55%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.26
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.26
upside/downside
roll spread
5.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1011
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-nord-stream-pipeline-turned-on-before-2027/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
5.9¢
NO · live
94.2¢
25 ticks · last 6.10¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.321 / 1.00 bits (32%) · informative — one side favoured
YES5.9%5.9¢17.09×▬ +0.00pp
NO94.2%94.2¢1.06×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 1635bp moved · peak 445bp · n=24 ticks
11.1s
5.85¢ (5.85%)
94.15¢ (94.15%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$17.7k
$21.5k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 6.10¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 93.90¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.73)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.617left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.733leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.74 + ADF rejected
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.636PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
5.85¢
94.15¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES17.09×(6¢)NO1.06×(94¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.321 bits (32% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
193days
12hrs
01min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.0585 · expected return per side: $0.94 on YES hit · $0.06 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 5.025 pp/day
now193.50d left5.025 pp/day×1.00
−25%145.13d left5.802 pp/day×1.15
−50%96.75d left7.106 pp/day×1.41
−75%48.38d left10.049 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.35d left15.889 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
9 up bars · 11 down · best 2.90% · worst -4.45% · typical |Δ| 0.681%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 0.9798 (-2.02%) · max DD -4.45% · time-under-water 18/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 25.579 · range [-61.52, 38.95] · μ -7.085 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 128.42% · range [7.50%, 247.16%] · μ 99.96% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.176 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
5 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence5 reject·1 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
50.2393
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
REJECT H₀**H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
20.4386
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0011
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
REJECT H₀**H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-3.5802
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0064
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
1.4395
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1500
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀*H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.7052
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0131
Variance ratio q=3
REJECT H₀*H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
-2.3213
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0203
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 25.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.075e-3
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1011 bars · effective 1752713 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 193.5 d · σ/bar 0.118pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 8.02ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0551 · n = 1011✓ n = 1011
μ per bar
+0.002pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.118pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.58pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move194d
8.02pp
σ × √4644.0194902777785
Terminal variancebinary
0.0551
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
5.9¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.19pp · ES₉₅ 0.24pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.03✓ n = 1011
VaR 95%
0.19pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.24pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
27.3pp
peak 8.1¢ → trough 5.9¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
5.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
17.094
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1609
$100 wins $1609
FractionalUK
16.09 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1609.40
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.321 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.321 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.10 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.09 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
17883565812385692919033074431368509269944503170327690253570087813703946722468- NO token ID
110752177626487577503361028534571897245040490214979435177316209090846342511849- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-20 11:58:38 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 11.1s
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-20 11:58:49 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
87ba337503095306344e1903002a85ae28c474b25523848dc1eeb6141455ad9d· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.061000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5901.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.045
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.210
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-nord-stream-pipeline-turned-on-before-2027/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.249694 | 30933.37bp | 0.399000 | 20 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.485782 | 69636.41bp | 0.670000 | 38 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.816290 | 123818.11bp | 0.999000 | 68 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.003249 | 9467.33bp | 0.001000 | 28 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.003249 | 9467.33bp | 0.001000 | 28 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.003249 | 9467.33bp | 0.001000 | 28 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 1,011 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
2731.12%
σ per bar = 0.020629
Mean return (annualised)
61684.17%
μ per bar = 0.000352
Sharpe (rf=0)
22.59
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
27.33%
peak 0.08 → trough 0.06 over 417 bars
/api/asset/pm-nord-stream-pipeline-turned-on-before-2027/risk · same metrics, JSON