POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · LOL: SAIGON WARRIORS VS TOP ESPORTS CHALLENGER (BO3) - ASIA MASTERS LAST CHANCE QUALIFIER

LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier

YES · live
41.5¢
NO · live
58.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · lol-sgw-tesc-2026-06-15 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
125.84%
max drawdown
5.68%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
4.08%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.48%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.68%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.43
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.43
upside/downside
roll spread
1.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
499
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-lol-sgw-tesc-2026-06-15/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH31ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
41.5¢
NO · live
58.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.3834 · σ=0.0556 · range [0.2950, 0.4800] · R²=0.093▲ RISING +38.98%σ HIGH 14.51%LAST 0.41000.48000.43370.38750.34120.2950μ = 0.3834max 0.4800min 0.2950dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 41.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 41.5%NO 58.5%NO58.5%58.50¢ · odds 1/1.71
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.979 / 1.00 bits (98%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
41.5%41.5¢2.41×▬ +0.00pp
NO
58.5%58.5¢1.71×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=6,750 · μ=281.2 · σ=363.2 · CV=1.29BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=903507001,0501,400μ = 2811,40050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 6750bp moved · peak 1400bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
31ms
▲YES mid
41.50¢ (41.50%)
▼NO mid
58.50¢ (58.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$26.3k
≋liquidity $
$27.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3834 · σ=0.0556 · range [0.2950, 0.4800] · R²=0.093▲ RISING +38.98%σ HIGH 14.51%LAST 0.41000.48000.43370.38750.34120.2950μ = 0.3834max 0.4800min 0.2950dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 41.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6120 · σ=0.0527 · range [0.5200, 0.6800] · R²=0.054▼ FALLING -12.59%σ HIGH 8.61%LAST 0.59000.68000.64000.60000.56000.5200μ = 0.6120max 0.6800min 0.5200dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 59.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0049 · σ=0.0424 · skew=0.56 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.92 (leptokurtic (fat tails))975202-7.85ppbin -7.85pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -7.85pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak1-5.55ppbin -5.55pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -5.55pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak-3.25pp8-0.95ppbin -0.95pp · n=8 · 88.9% peakbin -0.95pp · n=8 · 88.9% peak91.35ppbin 1.35pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin 1.35pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak23.65ppbin 3.65pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 3.65pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak5.95pp18.25ppbin 8.25pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 8.25pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak10.55pp112.85ppbin 12.85pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 12.85pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.52 · kurt=2.29 · near 12 / mid 12 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.20)
μ MEAN38.34¢95% CI: [36.16¢, 40.52¢]
σ STD DEV5.56ppσ² = 30.932 · CV = 14.51%
med MEDIAN38.50¢Q₁ 32.50¢ · Q₃ 42.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 18.50pp · IQR 9.50pp (1.349σ→7.50pp)
min 29.50¢Q₁ 32.50¢med 38.50¢Q₃ 42.00¢max 48.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.189approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.203platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.03
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.79
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.33
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.063within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.141lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.129strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.538fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.129
H = 1.129STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.063k=2-0.141k=3-0.047k=4+0.209k=5-0.2410+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.54)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.54)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2530999
SLUGlol-sgw-tesc-2026-06-15
CATEGORYLoL: Saigon Warr…ce Qualifier
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (59¢)
PRIMARY · YES41.50¢implied prob 41.50% · decimal odds 2.41×
COUNTER · NO58.50¢implied prob 58.50% · decimal odds 1.71×
41.50¢
58.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME26.30k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY27.04k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (59¢)|primary − counter| = 0.170 · entropy 0.979 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 41.5%NO 58.5%YES p̂41.5%H = 0.979 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2.41×(42¢)NO1.71×(59¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.979 bits (98% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-15 16:00 UTC
0days
09hrs
59min
10.0 hours·θ = 27.246 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 41.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 58.5%)
current: $0.4150 · expected return per side: $0.58 on YES hit · $0.41 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+5.0hRESOLVESP projection · σ=5.56% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 27.246 pp/day
now9.99h left
27.246 pp/day×1.00
−25%7.49h left
31.461 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.99h left
38.532 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.50h left
54.493 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.00h left
86.160 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 14.00% · worst -9.00% · typical |Δ| 2.81%MILD BULLISH +11.50%BEST+14.00%5hWORST-9.00%11hTYPICAL |Δ|2.81%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+11.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +2.57% · Σ +18.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -1.25% · Σ -10.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.56% · Σ +4.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +11.50%+18.50%0.00%3.00% · 1h3.00% · 1h3.00%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-0.50% · 3h-0.50% · 3h-0.50%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h14.00% · 5h14.00% · 5h14.00%5h★ BEST2.00% · 6h2.00% · 6h2.00%6h-0.50% · 7h-0.50% · 7h-0.50%7h-8.00% · 8h-8.00% · 8h-8.00%8h8.00% · 9h8.00% · 9h8.00%9h-6.50% · 10h-6.50% · 10h-6.50%10h-9.00% · 11h-9.00% · 11h-9.00%11h▼ WORST0.50% · 12h0.50% · 12h0.50%12h0.50% · 13h0.50% · 13h0.50%13h0.50% · 14h0.50% · 14h0.50%14h4.00% · 15h4.00% · 15h4.00%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h1.00% · 17h1.00% · 17h1.00%17h1.50% · 18h1.50% · 18h1.50%18h-1.50% · 19h-1.50% · 19h-1.50%19h1.00% · 20h1.00% · 20h1.00%20h2.50% · 21h2.50% · 21h2.50%21h1.00% · 22h1.00% · 22h1.00%22h-1.00% · 23h-1.00% · 23h-1.00%23h-1.00% · 24h-1.00% · 24h-1.00%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+18.00%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH54% up · 33% down · 13% flat
13 up bars · 8 down · best 14.00% · worst -9.00% · typical |Δ| 2.812%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +9.51%FINAL+9.51%MAX DD-15.88%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+19.17%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0951 · peak 1.1917 · range [1.0000, 1.1917]1.19171.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1917UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -15.88% · severe0%-15.88%▼ TROUGH -15.88%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -15.88%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.50%bar 4-5 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -15.88%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 1.0951 (9.51%) · max DD -15.88% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=21.27 · σ=38.61PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 9.93 (-0.29σ vs μ)81.2240.610.00-40.61-81.22μ = 21.2752.3052.3040.9840.9815.2515.2531.8531.8516.6116.61-32.71-32.71-37.16-37.16-34.36-34.36-15.51-15.51-31.41-31.41-12.48-12.4869.2869.2881.2281.2246.9346.9351.5251.5251.2651.2665.0165.0135.6835.689.939.93v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 9.932 · range [-37.16, 81.22] · μ 21.274 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=403.4864 · σ=241.6446 · range [123.5192, 790.8628] · R²=0.752▼ FALLING -71.53%σ EXTREME 59.89%LAST 146.9966790.8628624.0269457.1910290.3551123.5192μ = 403.4864max 790.8628min 123.5192dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.75μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 147.00% · range [123.52%, 790.86%] · μ 403.49% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.175 · σ=0.219MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.234 (+1.87σ vs μ)0.4950.2470.000-0.247-0.495μ = -0.175-0.152-0.152-0.110-0.1100.0450.045-0.205-0.205-0.251-0.251-0.342-0.342-0.495-0.495-0.390-0.390-0.071-0.0710.3340.3340.0090.009-0.382-0.382-0.452-0.452-0.332-0.332-0.258-0.258-0.193-0.193-0.149-0.149-0.157-0.1570.2340.234v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.234 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
11.2035
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0037
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.9914
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5526
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.4916
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1231
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4308
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6666
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1556
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4343
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.3784
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7051
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.885 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.18e-3 · top T=4.00h (22.9%) · top-3 cover 49.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)6.0e-34.5e-33.0e-31.5e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.77e-4 · 3.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.77e-4 · 3.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.23e-3 · 12.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.23e-3 · 12.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.02e-3 · 7.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.02e-3 · 7.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.60e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.60e-5 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.41e-3 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.41e-3 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.01e-3 · 22.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.01e-3 · 22.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.68e-3 · 10.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.68e-3 · 10.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.64e-3 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.64e-3 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.22e-3 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.22e-3 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.41e-4 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.41e-4 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.45e-3 · 9.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.45e-3 · 9.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.63e-3 · 13.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.63e-3 · 13.8% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=2.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 22.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.620e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (499 bars · effective 1753297 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.4 d · σ/bar 0.095pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.30ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2428 · n = 499✓ n = 499
μ per bar
-0.004pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.095pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.47pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.30pp
σ × √9.986754999999999
Terminal variancebinary
0.2428
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
41.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.16pp · ES₉₅ 0.20pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.004pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 499
VaR 95%
0.16pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.20pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
5.7pp
peak 44.0¢ → trough 41.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
41.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.410
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+141
$100 wins $141
FractionalUK
1.41 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$140.96
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 41.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.979 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.979 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.27 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.77 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
33760081671692488895316892926664193059166930612545578661785759949853994190829
NO token ID
61586263780801843035388979134297975574188244735141548094924335582366910471694
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 06:00:47 UTC
Snapshot age
31ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-15 06:00:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
9e80716f17d99b6df495a1efe7891434d6714faa97dab478910e9e482c86ad83 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain91.8¢HL PREDNorway83.2¢HL PREDPortugal77.2¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?85¢POLYMARKETWill Sweden win on 2026-06-14?100¢POLYMARKETWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,816HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,719.6HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$64.77

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.410000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
487.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.113
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.906
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-lol-sgw-tesc-2026-06-15/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.4601431223.01bp0.60000010FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.7126777382.37bp0.82000027FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.92270012504.87bp0.98000039FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.400000243.90bp0.4000001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.379033755.29bp0.3700004FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0907527786.54bp0.01000031PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 499 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
297.07%
σ per bar = 0.002244
Mean return (annualised)
-16570.95%
μ per bar = -0.000095
Sharpe (rf=0)
-55.78
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.68%
peak 0.44 → trough 0.41 over 133 bars

/api/asset/pm-lol-sgw-tesc-2026-06-15/risk · same metrics, JSON