HYPERLIQUID · HIP-3 PREDICTION MARKET · OUTCOME #354

Portugal

Primary · Yes
76.1¢
Counter · No
23.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · pred-portugal-354 · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
1513.37%
max drawdown
1.78%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.53%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.35%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.78%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
5.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
5.99
upside/downside
roll spread
12.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1732
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pred-portugal-354/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
Yes mid · live
76.1¢
No mid · live
23.9¢
Yes · live 24h price
n=4 · μ=0.8114 · σ=0.0522 · range [0.7662, 0.8568] · R²=0.801▼ FALLING -10.57%σ HIGH 6.44%LAST 0.76620.85680.83410.81150.78880.7662μ = 0.8114max 0.8568min 0.7662dataMA(2)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
4 bars · close 76.62¢ · 24h -10.57%
Probability split · live
Yes 76.1%No 23.9%YES76.1%76.14¢ · odds 1/1.31
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.793 / 1.00 bits (79%) · moderate uncertainty
Yes
76.1%76.1¢1.31×▬ +0.00pp
No
23.9%23.9¢4.19×▬ +0.00pp
primary vs counter implied %
Volume · per-hour contracts · live
n=4 · Σ=383 · μ=95.8 · σ=133.2 · CV=1.39BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=3074148221295μ = 9629550%h1h2h3h4#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 383 · peak 295
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.3s
▲Yes mid
76.139¢
▼No mid
23.861¢
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
Σarb gap |1 − Σ|
0.00pp
Δ24h candles
4 bars
Δ24h close
76.62¢
Δ24h change
-10.57%

§1 · 24h time-series

Mid price · Yes (4 hourly observations)
n=4 · μ=0.8114 · σ=0.0522 · range [0.7662, 0.8568] · R²=0.801▼ FALLING -10.57%σ HIGH 6.44%LAST 0.76620.85680.83410.81150.78880.7662μ = 0.8114max 0.8568min 0.7662dataMA(2)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
range [76.62¢, 85.68¢] · span 9.06pp · MA(5) latest n/a
Candlestick · open / high / low / close per hour
n=4 · up 4 · down 0 (100% up) · range [0.7662, 0.8568] · σ=0.0522 · CV=0.06 · bodyµ=0%BEARISH -10.57%CLOSE 0.7662 vs OPEN 0.8568 (-10.57%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.76620.85680.83410.81150.78880.7662μ close = 0.8114O0.857 H0.857 L0.857 C0.857 (+0.00%)O0.857 H0.857 L0.857 C0.857 (+0.00%)O0.857 H0.857 L0.857 C0.857 (+0.00%)O0.857 H0.857 L0.857 C0.857 (+0.00%)O0.766 H0.766 L0.766 C0.766 (+0.00%)O0.766 H0.766 L0.766 C0.766 (+0.00%)O0.766 H0.766 L0.766 C0.766 (+0.00%)O0.766 H0.766 L0.766 C0.766 (+0.00%)#1#2#3#4up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(2) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
4 bars · last close 76.62¢
Hourly traded contracts
n=4 · Σ=383 · μ=95.8 · σ=133.2 · CV=1.39BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=3074148221295μ = 9643 · 14.6% peak43 · 14.6% peak19 · 6.4% peak19 · 6.4% peak295295 · 100.0% peak295 · 100.0% peak26 · 8.8% peak26 · 8.8% peak50%#1#2#3#4#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol = 383 · peak 295 · mean 95.8

§2 · Distribution of one-bar increments Δp = pₜ − pₜ₋₁

Histogram of Δp
n=3 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0314 · σ=0.0390 · skew=-0.71 (left-skewed) · kurt=-1.50 (platykurtic (thin tails))221101-8.65ppbin -8.65pp · n=1 · 50.0% peakbin -8.65pp · n=1 · 50.0% peak-7.90pp-7.15pp-6.40pp-5.64pp-4.89pp-4.14pp-3.39pp-2.64pp-1.88pp-1.13pp2-0.38ppbin -0.38pp · n=2 · 100.0% peakbin -0.38pp · n=2 · 100.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=3 · positive 0 · negative 3

§3 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=4PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-2.44)
μ MEAN81.14¢95% CI: [76.02¢, 86.26¢]
σ STD DEV5.22ppσ² = 27.271 · CV = 6.44%
med MEDIAN81.14¢Q₁ 76.62¢ · Q₃ 85.66¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 9.06pp · IQR 9.04pp (1.349σ→7.04pp)
min 76.62¢Q₁ 76.62¢med 81.14¢Q₃ 85.66¢max 85.68¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.000approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-2.437platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.00
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.78
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 1.73
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation · skew (G₁): >0 right-tail · kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI uses 1.96·SE around μ. σ × 1.349 ≈ IQR under normality.

§6 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.67 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.667within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.000lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.500random-walk
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.840significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]random-walk · H = 0.500
H = 0.500RANDOM-WALK
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.667k=2+0.000k=3+0.000k=4+0.000k=5+0.0000+1−1+1.15−1.15+ momentum (ρ > +1.15)− reversal (ρ < −1.15)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.84)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.67 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.67very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.84)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§7 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
OUTCOME ID#354
SLUGportugal-354
QUOTE TOKENUSDC
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (76¢)
PRIMARY · YES76.14¢implied prob 76.14% · decimal odds 1.31×
COUNTER · NO23.86¢implied prob 23.86% · decimal odds 4.19×
76.14¢
23.86¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYTHIN
24H VOLUME383 contracts
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (76¢)|primary − counter| = 0.523 · entropy 0.793 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHTHIN100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = primary + counter implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§8 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Yes vs No · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Yes 76.1%No 23.9%YES p̂76.1%H = 0.793 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (Yes)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
Yes1.31×(76¢)No4.19×(24¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.793 bits (79% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b where b = (1−p̂)/p̂ are the net odds implied by p̂. ½K and ¼K are industry-standard conservative fractions.

§9 · Resolution criteria

This outcome resolves to Yes if Portugal wins the Game.

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1732 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§15 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§16 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 0.660pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 8.56ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1817 · n = 1732✓ n = 1732
μ per bar
+0.015pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.660pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
3.23pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move7d
8.56pp
σ × √168
Terminal variancebinary
0.1817
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
76.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§17 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.07pp · ES₉₅ 1.35pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.015pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.01pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1732
VaR 95%
1.07pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.35pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
1.8pp
peak 77.5¢ → trough 76.1¢
Median step
0.01pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§18 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
76.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.313
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-319
risk $319 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.31 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$31.34
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 76.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§19 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.793 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.793 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.39 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
2.07 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§20 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
https://hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-15 08:34:22 UTC
Snapshot age
2.3s
Page rendered
2026-06-15 08:34:24 UTC
History points
4 closes · 4 counter-side closes
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
eb9ec6cd4f653a2d4a6488438dcdb50623c3f156972489e64e1604d145d3c4cc · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain92.0¢HL PREDBrazil88.0¢HL PREDNorway79.0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?90¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?95¢POLYMARKETWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,711HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,720.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$65.72

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,732 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
2410.39%
σ per bar = 0.010511
Mean return (annualised)
127758.00%
μ per bar = 0.000243
Sharpe (rf=0)
53.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.78%
peak 0.77 → trough 0.76 over 1 bars

/api/asset/hl-pred-portugal-354/risk · same metrics, JSON