POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · TÜRKIYE VS. UNITED STATES

Will United States win on 2026-06-25?

YES · live
46.5¢
NO · live
53.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-tur-usa-2026-06-25-usa · fresh · feed 6s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
97.71%
max drawdown
2.11%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
1.97%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.85%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.11%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.50
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.50
upside/downside
roll spread
0.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
552
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-tur-usa-2026-06-25-usa/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
46.5¢
NO · live
53.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.4240 · σ=0.0280 · range [0.3750, 0.4750] · R²=0.209▲ RISING +9.41%σ HIGH 6.60%LAST 0.46500.47500.45000.42500.40000.3750μ = 0.4240max 0.4750min 0.3750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 46.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 46.5%NO 53.5%NO53.5%53.50¢ · odds 1/1.87
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.996 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
46.5%46.5¢2.15×▬ +0.00pp
NO
53.5%53.5¢1.87×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,800 · μ=75.0 · σ=114.2 · CV=1.52BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=110100200300400μ = 7540050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1800bp moved · peak 400bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6.4s
▲YES mid
46.50¢ (46.50%)
▼NO mid
53.50¢ (53.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$280.5k
≋liquidity $
$470.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4240 · σ=0.0280 · range [0.3750, 0.4750] · R²=0.209▲ RISING +9.41%σ HIGH 6.60%LAST 0.46500.47500.45000.42500.40000.3750μ = 0.4240max 0.4750min 0.3750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 46.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5760 · σ=0.0280 · range [0.5250, 0.6250] · R²=0.209▼ FALLING -6.96%σ NORMAL 4.86%LAST 0.53500.62500.60000.57500.55000.5250μ = 0.5760max 0.6250min 0.5250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 53.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0019 · σ=0.0122 · skew=-0.65 (left-skewed) · kurt=2.80 (leptokurtic (fat tails))14117401-3.62ppbin -3.62pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -3.62pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak-2.87pp-2.12pp2-1.37ppbin -1.37pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakbin -1.37pp · n=2 · 14.3% peak1-0.62ppbin -0.62pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -0.62pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak140.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=14 · 100.0% peakbin 0.13pp · n=14 · 100.0% peak20.88ppbin 0.88pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakbin 0.88pp · n=2 · 14.3% peak31.63ppbin 1.63pp · n=3 · 21.4% peakbin 1.63pp · n=3 · 21.4% peak2.38pp13.13ppbin 3.13pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 3.13pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.42 · kurt=2.98 · near 12 / mid 11 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.92 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN42.40¢95% CI: [41.30¢, 43.50¢]
σ STD DEV2.80ppσ² = 7.833 · CV = 6.60%
med MEDIAN42.50¢Q₁ 40.50¢ · Q₃ 42.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 10.00pp · IQR 2.00pp (1.349σ→3.78pp)
min 37.50¢Q₁ 40.50¢med 42.50¢Q₃ 42.50¢max 47.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.449approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.881mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.04
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.89
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.57
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.153within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.122lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.866strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.465significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.866
H = 0.866STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.153k=2-0.122k=3+0.049k=4+0.083k=5-0.0150+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.47)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.88very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.47)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1897356
SLUGfifwc-tur-usa-2026-06-25-usa
CATEGORYTürkiye vs. United States
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (54¢)
PRIMARY · YES46.50¢implied prob 46.50% · decimal odds 2.15×
COUNTER · NO53.50¢implied prob 53.50% · decimal odds 1.87×
46.50¢
53.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME280.46k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY470.22k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (54¢)|primary − counter| = 0.070 · entropy 0.996 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 46.5%NO 53.5%YES p̂46.5%H = 0.996 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2.15×(47¢)NO1.87×(54¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.996 bits (100% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-26 02:00 UTC
5days
16hrs
19min
5.68 days·θ = 13.711 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 46.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 53.5%)
current: $0.4650 · expected return per side: $0.53 on YES hit · $0.47 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+2.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=2.80% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 13.711 pp/day
now5.68d left
13.711 pp/day×1.00
−25%4.26d left
15.832 pp/day×1.15
−50%2.84d left
19.391 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.42d left
27.423 pp/day×2.00
−90%13.63h left
43.359 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 3.50% · worst -4.00% · typical |Δ| 0.75%MILD BULLISH +4.00%BEST+3.50%19hWORST-4.00%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.75%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+4.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.25% · Σ -2.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.88% · Σ +7.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +4.00%+5.00%-5.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-1.00% · 6h-1.00% · 6h-1.00%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h1.00% · 8h1.00% · 8h1.00%8h-1.00% · 9h-1.00% · 9h-1.00%9h-4.00% · 10h-4.00% · 10h-4.00%10h▼ WORST2.00% · 11h2.00% · 11h2.00%11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h1.00% · 16h1.00% · 16h1.00%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h1.50% · 18h1.50% · 18h1.50%18h3.50% · 19h3.50% · 19h3.50%19h★ BEST2.00% · 20h2.00% · 20h2.00%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-1.00% · 22h-1.00% · 22h-1.00%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+7.00%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH25% up · 17% down · 58% flat
6 up bars · 4 down · best 3.50% · worst -4.00% · typical |Δ| 0.750%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +3.85%FINAL+3.85%MAX DD-4.97%RECOVERYONGOING · 13 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.90%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0385 · peak 1.0490 · range [0.9503, 1.0490]1.04900.9503break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0490UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.97% · moderate0%-4.97%▼ TROUGH -4.97%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -4.97%bar 7-19 · 13 bars · recovered#2 -1.00%bar 23-25 · 3 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.97%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 1.0385 (3.85%) · max DD -4.97% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −9 (47% positive) · μ=17.36 · σ=47.14MIXED EDGELAST 42.14 (+0.53σ vs μ)93.8946.940.00-46.94-93.89μ = 17.36-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.210.000.00-20.72-20.72-45.28-45.28-22.57-22.57-15.10-15.10-15.10-15.10-23.70-23.70-15.87-15.8755.9355.9338.2138.2158.6858.6867.9067.9093.8993.8993.8993.8956.9656.9656.9656.9642.1442.14v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 42.139 · range [-45.28, 93.89] · μ 17.358 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=122.9963 · σ=58.2468 · range [38.2099, 194.0825] · R²=0.085▲ RISING +308.04%σ EXTREME 47.36%LAST 155.9134194.0825155.1143116.146277.178138.2099μ = 122.9963max 194.0825min 38.2099dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.08μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 155.91% · range [38.21%, 194.08%] · μ 123.00% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −11 (37% positive) · μ=-0.044 · σ=0.282CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.410 (+1.61σ vs μ)0.5000.2500.000-0.250-0.500μ = -0.044-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.2330.0000.000-0.363-0.3630.0990.099-0.337-0.337-0.271-0.271-0.286-0.286-0.269-0.269-0.385-0.385-0.071-0.071-0.233-0.233-0.267-0.2670.1840.1840.2800.2800.1290.1290.3150.3150.5000.5000.4100.410v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.410 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
16.8829
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0002
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.3497
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9288
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.7030
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8388
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.5620
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5741
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3537
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0971
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.7459
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4557
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.227 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.83e-4 · top T=4.00h (21.7%) · top-3 cover 53.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)4.8e-43.6e-42.4e-41.2e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.82e-4 · 17.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.82e-4 · 17.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.68e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.68e-4 · 7.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.18e-4 · 5.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.18e-4 · 5.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.20e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.20e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.01e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.01e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.77e-4 · 21.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.77e-4 · 21.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.61e-4 · 7.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.61e-4 · 7.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.26e-4 · 5.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.26e-4 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.45e-4 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.45e-4 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.36e-4 · 6.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.36e-4 · 6.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.49e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.49e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-4 · 4.7% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.00h#2T=24.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 21.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.194e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4748 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 5.7 d · σ/bar 0.079pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.92ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2488 · n = 4748✓ n = 4748
μ per bar
+0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.079pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.39pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move6d
0.92pp
σ × √136.3258088888889
Terminal variancebinary
0.2488
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
46.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.13pp · ES₉₅ 0.16pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 4748
VaR 95%
0.13pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.16pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
2.3pp
peak 43.5¢ → trough 42.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
46.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.151
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+115
$100 wins $115
FractionalUK
1.15 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$115.05
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 46.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.996 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.996 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.10 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.90 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
47236739815607347436394828740644657912816815268002585518946427187074399713739
NO token ID
11351859697951031534193329704747483382789005872861046709981786676180376107985
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 09:40:20 UTC
Snapshot age
6.4s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 09:40:27 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
14eb315500921662ceb9e3ca5d1ed04d18318c98e6899e37c66b5df9e6d4a1b5 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.3¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,616HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.71HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,727.6

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Türkiye vs. United States

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.465000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
215.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.379
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.094
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-tur-usa-2026-06-25-usa/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.470000107.53bp0.4700001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.478012279.82bp0.4800002FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.5160101096.98bp0.5500009FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.460000107.53bp0.4600001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.452561267.50bp0.4500002FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.4068641250.23bp0.36000010FILLED

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,748 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
231.70%
σ per bar = 0.001750
Mean return (annualised)
3320.75%
μ per bar = 0.000019
Sharpe (rf=0)
14.33
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.30%
peak 0.43 → trough 0.42 over 2002 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-tur-usa-2026-06-25-usa/risk · same metrics, JSON