POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. SWEDEN - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden?

YES · live
2.1¢
NO · live
98.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-exact-score-3-3 · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
20.05%
max drawdown
31.25%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
20.40%
RMS drawdown
pain index
19.32%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
29.59%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.59
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.59
upside/downside
roll spread
3.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1014
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-exact-score-3-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.1¢
NO · live
98.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0190 · σ=0.0035 · range [0.0125, 0.0255] · R²=0.473▲ RISING +64.00%σ EXTREME 18.66%LAST 0.02050.02550.02220.01900.01580.0125μ = 0.0190max 0.0255min 0.0125dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.47μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.1%NO 98.0%NO98.0%97.95¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.144 / 1.00 bits (14%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.1%2.1¢48.78×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.0%98.0¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=280 · μ=11.7 · σ=12.3 · CV=1.05BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=15011223445μ = 124550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 280bp moved · peak 45bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.8s
▲YES mid
2.05¢ (2.05%)
▼NO mid
97.95¢ (97.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$49.3k
≋liquidity $
$72.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0190 · σ=0.0035 · range [0.0125, 0.0255] · R²=0.473▲ RISING +64.00%σ EXTREME 18.66%LAST 0.02050.02550.02220.01900.01580.0125μ = 0.0190max 0.0255min 0.0125dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.47μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9810 · σ=0.0035 · range [0.9745, 0.9875] · R²=0.473▼ FALLING -0.81%σ LOW 0.36%LAST 0.97950.98750.98430.98100.97780.9745μ = 0.9810max 0.9875min 0.9745dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.47μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0003 · σ=0.0016 · skew=-0.52 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.62 (mesokurtic)754201-0.41ppbin -0.41pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -0.41pp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-0.33pp-0.25pp3-0.17ppbin -0.17pp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -0.17pp · n=3 · 42.9% peak1-0.09ppbin -0.09pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -0.09pp · n=1 · 14.3% peak7-0.01ppbin -0.01pp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -0.01pp · n=7 · 100.0% peak50.07ppbin 0.07pp · n=5 · 71.4% peakbin 0.07pp · n=5 · 71.4% peak30.15ppbin 0.15pp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 0.15pp · n=3 · 42.9% peak20.23ppbin 0.23pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 0.23pp · n=2 · 28.6% peak20.31ppbin 0.31pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 0.31pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.60 · kurt=1.39 · near 19 / mid 5 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.98 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN1.90¢95% CI: [1.76¢, 2.03¢]
σ STD DEV0.35ppσ² = 0.125 · CV = 18.66%
med MEDIAN1.85¢Q₁ 1.65¢ · Q₃ 2.10¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.30pp · IQR 0.45pp (1.349σ→0.48pp)
min 1.25¢Q₁ 1.65¢med 1.85¢Q₃ 2.10¢max 2.55¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.023approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.979mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.13
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.06
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.67
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.042within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.004lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.036strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+4.547significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.036
H = 1.036STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.042k=2+0.004k=3-0.094k=4-0.121k=5+0.0800+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.55)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.55)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322919
SLUGfifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-exact-score-3-3
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Sweden - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.05¢implied prob 2.05% · decimal odds 48.78×
COUNTER · NO97.95¢implied prob 97.95% · decimal odds 1.02×
2.05¢
97.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME49.33k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY72.18k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.959 · entropy 0.144 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.1%NO 98.0%YES p̂2.1%H = 0.144 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES48.78×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.144 bits (14% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-20 17:00 UTC
0days
04hrs
58min
5.0 hours·θ = 1.733 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.0%)
current: $0.0205 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+2.5hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.35% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.733 pp/day
now4.98h left
1.733 pp/day×1.00
−25%3.74h left
2.002 pp/day×1.15
−50%2.49h left
2.451 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.25h left
3.467 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.50h left
5.481 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.35% · worst -0.45% · typical |Δ| 0.12%MILD BULLISH +0.80%BEST+0.35%12hWORST-0.45%15hTYPICAL |Δ|0.12%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.80%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.40%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.06% · Σ +0.45%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.80%+1.30%0.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.30% · 2h0.30% · 2h0.30%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.05% · 4h0.05% · 4h0.05%4h0.05% · 5h0.05% · 5h0.05%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.05% · 9h0.05% · 9h0.05%9h0.05% · 10h0.05% · 10h0.05%10h0.25% · 11h0.25% · 11h0.25%11h0.35% · 12h0.35% · 12h0.35%12h★ BEST0.05% · 13h0.05% · 13h0.05%13h0.15% · 14h0.15% · 14h0.15%14h-0.45% · 15h-0.45% · 15h-0.45%15h▼ WORST0.15% · 16h0.15% · 16h0.15%16h0.15% · 17h0.15% · 17h0.15%17h-0.15% · 18h-0.15% · 18h-0.15%18h-0.15% · 19h-0.15% · 19h-0.15%19h-0.15% · 20h-0.15% · 20h-0.15%20h-0.10% · 21h-0.10% · 21h-0.10%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.20% · 23h0.20% · 23h0.20%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.45%)RUNSup max 6 · down max 4BREADTH50% up · 21% down · 29% flat
12 up bars · 5 down · best 0.35% · worst -0.45% · typical |Δ| 0.117%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.80%FINAL+0.80%MAX DD-0.70%RECOVERYONGOING · 10 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.31%UNDERWATER10/25 (40%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0080 · peak 1.0131 · range [1.0000, 1.0131]1.01311.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0131UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.70% · shallow0%-0.70%▼ TROUGH -0.70%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.70%bar 16-25 · 10 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.70%)RECOVERYongoing · 10 barsTIME UNDER WATER40% of session · 10/25 bars
final equity 1.0080 (0.80%) · max DD -0.70% · time-under-water 10/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=27.83 · σ=50.83MIXED EDGELAST -23.47 (-1.01σ vs μ)110.9955.490.00-55.49-110.99μ = 27.8353.3753.3753.3753.3760.4260.4285.4485.4485.4485.4456.2656.2674.1874.1883.2583.25110.99110.9922.3922.3927.8127.8122.9922.99-6.44-6.44-19.10-19.10-41.44-41.44-26.05-26.05-51.52-51.52-39.18-39.18-23.47-23.47v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -23.472 · range [-51.52, 110.99] · μ 27.826 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=14.3462 · σ=7.7610 · range [2.4166, 26.2511] · R²=0.228▲ RISING +13.70%σ EXTREME 54.10%LAST 12.440326.251120.292514.33398.37522.4166μ = 14.3462max 26.2511min 2.4166dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.23μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 12.44% · range [2.42%, 26.25%] · μ 14.35% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=0.024 · σ=0.279CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.393 (+1.32σ vs μ)0.4440.2220.000-0.222-0.444μ = 0.024-0.419-0.419-0.126-0.1260.1670.1670.1670.1670.1670.1670.1220.1220.4440.4440.1710.1710.0000.000-0.001-0.001-0.096-0.096-0.232-0.232-0.436-0.436-0.433-0.433-0.127-0.1270.4080.408-0.049-0.0490.3430.3430.3930.393v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.393 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
5.7600
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0561
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.9795
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9623
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9311
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3280
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.8709
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0614
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5883
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0237
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.3794
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7044
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.115 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.79e-6 · top T=12.00h (16.1%) · top-3 cover 46.9%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)5.4e-64.0e-62.7e-61.3e-60.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 2.92e-6 · 8.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.92e-6 · 8.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.39e-6 · 16.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.39e-6 · 16.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.80e-7 · 2.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.80e-7 · 2.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.57e-6 · 10.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.57e-6 · 10.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.69e-6 · 14.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.69e-6 · 14.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.21e-7 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.21e-7 · 1.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.62e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.62e-6 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.01e-6 · 15.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.01e-6 · 15.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.79e-7 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.79e-7 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.28e-6 · 15.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.28e-6 · 15.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.38e-7 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.38e-7 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.04e-6 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.04e-6 · 6.1% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=12.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 12.00h (freq 0.083) · concentrates 16.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.344e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1014 bars · effective 1752713 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.015pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.04ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0201 · n = 1014✓ n = 1014
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.015pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.07pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.04pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0201
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.03pp · ES₉₅ 0.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1014
VaR 95%
0.03pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.03pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
31.3pp
peak 2.4¢ → trough 1.7¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
48.780
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+4778
$100 wins $4778
FractionalUK
47.78 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$4778.05
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.144 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.144 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.61 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
9625927386424832918950829039501545216190156142795538792834686348105241770613
NO token ID
24485923077328752151749022549540794330100875395304601657487242530062941294096
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 12:01:02 UTC
Snapshot age
4.8s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 12:01:07 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c6e10c9077df5b69b524fd95415425b90c4682b4a697865a5b359f534041cce6 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,660HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.09HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,727.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Sweden - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.020500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
487.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.560
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.512
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-exact-score-3-3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0254772427.84bp0.03500011FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.16405170024.68bp0.70000047FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.615072290035.19bp0.89900059FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.020000243.90bp0.0200001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0170151700.02bp0.00100017PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0170151700.02bp0.00100017PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,014 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1054.94%
σ per bar = 0.007968
Mean return (annualised)
-27273.28%
μ per bar = -0.000156
Sharpe (rf=0)
-25.85
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
31.25%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 460 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-exact-score-3-3/risk · same metrics, JSON