POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. SWEDEN - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden?

YES · live
4.9¢
NO · live
95.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-exact-score-3-2 · fresh · feed 16s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
26.70%
max drawdown
11.70%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.98%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.03%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
11.70%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.25
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.25
upside/downside
roll spread
0.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1003
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-exact-score-3-2/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING16.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
4.9¢
NO · live
95.2¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0468 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.0415, 0.0490] · R²=0.065▲ RISING +5.43%σ NORMAL 3.17%LAST 0.04850.04900.04710.04520.04340.0415μ = 0.0468max 0.0490min 0.0415dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 4.85¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 4.9%NO 95.2%NO95.2%95.15¢ · odds 1/1.05
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.280 / 1.00 bits (28%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
4.9%4.9¢20.62×▬ +0.00pp
NO
95.2%95.2¢1.05×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=235 · μ=9.8 · σ=14.7 · CV=1.50BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=21012253750μ = 105050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 235bp moved · peak 50bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
16.1s
▲YES mid
4.85¢ (4.85%)
▼NO mid
95.15¢ (95.15%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$63.8k
≋liquidity $
$102.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0468 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.0415, 0.0490] · R²=0.065▲ RISING +5.43%σ NORMAL 3.17%LAST 0.04850.04900.04710.04520.04340.0415μ = 0.0468max 0.0490min 0.0415dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 4.85¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9532 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.9510, 0.9585] · R²=0.065▼ FALLING -0.26%σ LOW 0.16%LAST 0.95150.95850.95660.95470.95290.9510μ = 0.9532max 0.9585min 0.9510dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 95.15¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0016 · skew=-0.40 (symmetric) · kurt=2.25 (leptokurtic (fat tails))16128401-0.45ppbin -0.45pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin -0.45pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak-0.36pp-0.27pp2-0.18ppbin -0.18pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakbin -0.18pp · n=2 · 12.5% peak-0.10pp16-0.01ppbin -0.01pp · n=16 · 100.0% peakbin -0.01pp · n=16 · 100.0% peak10.08ppbin 0.08pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 0.08pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak10.17ppbin 0.17pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 0.17pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak20.26ppbin 0.26pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakbin 0.26pp · n=2 · 12.5% peak10.35ppbin 0.35pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 0.35pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.29 · kurt=2.04 · near 9 / mid 15 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.93 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=4.41)
μ MEAN4.68¢95% CI: [4.63¢, 4.74¢]
σ STD DEV0.15ppσ² = 0.022 · CV = 3.17%
med MEDIAN4.65¢Q₁ 4.65¢ · Q₃ 4.70¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.75pp · IQR 0.05pp (1.349σ→0.20pp)
min 4.15¢Q₁ 4.65¢med 4.65¢Q₃ 4.70¢max 4.90¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.426left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂4.406leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.23
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 4.00
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 5.05
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.256within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.182lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.811strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.268fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.811
H = 0.811STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.256k=2-0.182k=3+0.097k=4-0.059k=5-0.1140+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.27)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.88very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.27)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322918
SLUGfifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-exact-score-3-2
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Sweden - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (95¢)
PRIMARY · YES4.85¢implied prob 4.85% · decimal odds 20.62×
COUNTER · NO95.15¢implied prob 95.15% · decimal odds 1.05×
4.85¢
95.15¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME63.82k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY101.99k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (95¢)|primary − counter| = 0.903 · entropy 0.280 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 4.9%NO 95.2%YES p̂4.9%H = 0.280 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES20.62×(5¢)NO1.05×(95¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.280 bits (28% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-20 17:00 UTC
0days
04hrs
58min
5.0 hours·θ = 0.727 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 4.9%)
NO →$0.00(P = 95.2%)
current: $0.0485 · expected return per side: $0.95 on YES hit · $0.05 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+2.5hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.15% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.727 pp/day
now4.98h left
0.727 pp/day×1.00
−25%3.74h left
0.840 pp/day×1.15
−50%2.49h left
1.028 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.25h left
1.454 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.50h left
2.299 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.40% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.10%MILD BULLISH +0.25%BEST+0.40%22hWORST-0.50%21hTYPICAL |Δ|0.10%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.25%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.20%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.25%+0.30%-0.45%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.30% · 2h0.30% · 2h0.30%2h-0.20% · 3h-0.20% · 3h-0.20%3h0.20% · 4h0.20% · 4h0.20%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.20% · 6h-0.20% · 6h-0.20%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-0.05% · 10h-0.05% · 10h-0.05%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.10% · 16h0.10% · 16h0.10%16h-0.05% · 17h-0.05% · 17h-0.05%17h-0.05% · 18h-0.05% · 18h-0.05%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.50% · 21h-0.50% · 21h-0.50%21h▼ WORST0.40% · 22h0.40% · 22h0.40%22h★ BEST0.30% · 23h0.30% · 23h0.30%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH21% up · 25% down · 54% flat
5 up bars · 6 down · best 0.40% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.098%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.25%FINAL+0.25%MAX DD-0.75%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.30%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0025 · peak 1.0030 · range [0.9955, 1.0030]1.00300.9955break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0030UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.75% · shallow0%-0.75%▼ TROUGH -0.75%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.75%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.75%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 1.0025 (0.25%) · max DD -0.75% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −9 (32% positive) · μ=-12.21 · σ=25.43UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 9.93 (+0.87σ vs μ)48.6824.340.00-24.34-48.68μ = -12.217.647.647.647.64-20.72-20.720.000.00-48.68-48.68-48.68-48.68-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.2138.2138.2115.8715.870.000.000.000.000.000.00-36.90-36.90-10.92-10.927.417.419.939.93v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 9.932 · range [-48.68, 38.21] · μ -12.213 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=11.3719 · σ=9.7128 · range [1.9105, 29.5603] · R²=0.098▲ RISING +53.88%σ EXTREME 85.41%LAST 29.399329.560322.647815.73548.82291.9105μ = 11.3719max 29.5603min 1.9105dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 29.40% · range [1.91%, 29.56%] · μ 11.37% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −18 (0% positive) · μ=-0.235 · σ=0.166MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.178 (+0.34σ vs μ)0.5310.2660.000-0.266-0.531μ = -0.235-0.505-0.505-0.465-0.465-0.363-0.3630.0000.000-0.314-0.314-0.119-0.119-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.489-0.489-0.167-0.167-0.167-0.167-0.167-0.167-0.080-0.080-0.531-0.531-0.157-0.157-0.178-0.178v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.178 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
8.4280
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0148
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.5246
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6221
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.3776
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0125
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3499
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7264
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2120
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3358
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.6288
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1034
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.504 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.25e-6 · top T=3.00h (25.7%) · top-3 cover 56.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.0e-57.5e-65.0e-62.5e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.08e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.08e-6 · 2.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.69e-6 · 6.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.69e-6 · 6.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.37e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.37e-6 · 3.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.17e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.17e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.67e-6 · 6.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.67e-6 · 6.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.80e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.80e-6 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.34e-6 · 16.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.34e-6 · 16.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.00e-5 · 25.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.00e-5 · 25.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.49e-6 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.49e-6 · 6.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.68e-8 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.68e-8 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.74e-6 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.74e-6 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.51e-6 · 14.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.51e-6 · 14.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 25.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.900e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1003 bars · effective 1752713 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.020pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.05ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0461 · n = 1003✓ n = 1003
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.020pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.10pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.05pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0461
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
4.9¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.03pp · ES₉₅ 0.04pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 1003
VaR 95%
0.03pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.04pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
11.7pp
peak 4.7¢ → trough 4.2¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
4.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
20.619
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1962
$100 wins $1962
FractionalUK
19.62 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1961.86
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 4.9%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.280 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.280 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.37 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.07 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
99065709331379468518906878052100075402870001664269135233059631628873992317503
NO token ID
92312910723060764913134259911216971922282213767303869469930904149583634434625
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 12:00:44 UTC
Snapshot age
16.1s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 12:01:00 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2439eb7a3a471541a9afe32ad7c2ddd7a6575de062ca395a4b1c6de5dba56709 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,659HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.11HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,727

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Sweden - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.048500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
206.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.550
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.341
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-exact-score-3-2/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.052106743.50bp0.0530005FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.10671712003.44bp0.59900034FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.51278795729.31bp0.96000062FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.048000103.09bp0.0480001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0293693944.53bp0.00100026PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0293693944.53bp0.00100026PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,003 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
605.70%
σ per bar = 0.004575
Mean return (annualised)
5495.37%
μ per bar = 0.000031
Sharpe (rf=0)
9.07
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
11.70%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.04 over 446 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20-exact-score-3-2/risk · same metrics, JSON