POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Any Other Score?

YES · live
7.5¢
NO · live
92.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-any-other · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-any-other/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
7.5¢
NO · live
92.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1057 · σ=0.0283 · range [0.0350, 0.1350] · R²=0.367▼ FALLING -46.19%σ EXTREME 26.74%LAST 0.05650.13500.11000.08500.06000.0350μ = 0.1057max 0.1350min 0.0350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 5.65¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 7.5%NO 92.5%NO92.5%92.50¢ · odds 1/1.08
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.384 / 1.00 bits (38%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
7.5%7.5¢13.33×▬ +0.00pp
NO
92.5%92.5¢1.08×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=2,335 · μ=97.3 · σ=125.8 · CV=1.29BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=190150300450600μ = 9760050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 2335bp moved · peak 600bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4ms
▲YES mid
7.50¢ (7.50%)
▼NO mid
92.50¢ (92.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$53.6k
≋liquidity $
$65.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1057 · σ=0.0283 · range [0.0350, 0.1350] · R²=0.367▼ FALLING -46.19%σ EXTREME 26.74%LAST 0.05650.13500.11000.08500.06000.0350μ = 0.1057max 0.1350min 0.0350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 5.65¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8943 · σ=0.0283 · range [0.8650, 0.9650] · R²=0.367▲ RISING +5.42%σ NORMAL 3.16%LAST 0.94350.96500.94000.91500.89000.8650μ = 0.8943max 0.9650min 0.8650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.37μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 94.35¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0023 · σ=0.0145 · skew=-1.98 (left-skewed) · kurt=5.41 (leptokurtic (fat tails))975201-5.59ppbin -5.59pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -5.59pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak-4.78pp-3.96pp-3.15pp1-2.33ppbin -2.33pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -2.33pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak1-1.52ppbin -1.52pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -1.52pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak6-0.70ppbin -0.70pp · n=6 · 66.7% peakbin -0.70pp · n=6 · 66.7% peak90.11ppbin 0.11pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin 0.11pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak40.93ppbin 0.93pp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin 0.93pp · n=4 · 44.4% peak21.74ppbin 1.74pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 1.74pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.03 · kurt=5.59 · near 15 / mid 8 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.91 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.69σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.24)
μ MEAN10.57¢95% CI: [9.46¢, 11.68¢]
σ STD DEV2.83ppσ² = 7.987 · CV = 26.74%
med MEDIAN12.00¢Q₁ 10.50¢ · Q₃ 12.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 10.00pp · IQR 2.00pp (1.349σ→3.81pp)
min 3.50¢Q₁ 10.50¢med 12.00¢Q₃ 12.50¢max 13.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.242left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.048mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.51
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.91
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.54
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.047within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.012lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.999strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.650significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.999
H = 0.999STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.047k=2-0.012k=3-0.038k=4-0.196k=5+0.0570+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.65)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.65)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322446
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-any-other
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (93¢)
PRIMARY · YES7.50¢implied prob 7.50% · decimal odds 13.33×
COUNTER · NO92.50¢implied prob 92.50% · decimal odds 1.08×
7.50¢
92.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME53.57k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY65.48k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (93¢)|primary − counter| = 0.850 · entropy 0.384 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 7.5%NO 92.5%YES p̂7.5%H = 0.384 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES13.33×(8¢)NO1.08×(93¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.384 bits (38% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · CRITICALresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
00hrs
40min
41 minutes·θ = 13.845 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 7.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 92.5%)
current: $0.0750 · expected return per side: $0.93 on YES hit · $0.07 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.3hRESOLVESP projection · σ=2.83% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 13.845 pp/day
now0.68h left
13.845 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.51h left
15.987 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.34h left
19.580 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.17h left
27.690 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.07h left
43.782 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.15% · worst -6.00% · typical |Δ| 0.97%BEARISH SESSION -4.85%BEST+2.15%21hWORST-6.00%20hTYPICAL |Δ|0.97%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-4.85%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.12% · Σ +1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.75% · Σ -6.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -4.85%+3.00%-7.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h1.50% · 2h1.50% · 2h1.50%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-0.50% · 4h-0.50% · 4h-0.50%4h1.00% · 5h1.00% · 5h1.00%5h-1.00% · 6h-1.00% · 6h-1.00%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h1.00% · 8h1.00% · 8h1.00%8h0.50% · 9h0.50% · 9h0.50%9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h-0.50% · 12h-0.50% · 12h-0.50%12h0.50% · 13h0.50% · 13h0.50%13h0.50% · 14h0.50% · 14h0.50%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h1.00% · 16h1.00% · 16h1.00%16h-1.50% · 17h-1.50% · 17h-1.50%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-2.50% · 19h-2.50% · 19h-2.50%19h-6.00% · 20h-6.00% · 20h-6.00%20h▼ WORST2.15% · 21h2.15% · 21h2.15%21h★ BEST-0.25% · 22h-0.25% · 22h-0.25%22h1.10% · 23h1.10% · 23h1.10%23h-0.85% · 24h-0.85% · 24h-0.85%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+1.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 42% down · 21% flat
9 up bars · 10 down · best 2.15% · worst -6.00% · typical |Δ| 0.973%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -5.02%FINAL-5.02%MAX DD-9.72%RECOVERYONGOING · 8 barsMAX RUN-UP+3.00%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9498 · peak 1.0300 · range [0.9299, 1.0300]1.03000.9299break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0300UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -9.72% · significant0%-9.72%▼ TROUGH -9.72%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -9.72%bar 18-25 · 8 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.49%bar 11-16 · 6 bars · recovered#3 -1.00%bar 7-9 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -9.72%)RECOVERYongoing · 8 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 0.9498 (-5.02%) · max DD -9.72% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −8 (42% positive) · μ=-6.80 · σ=24.90MIXED EDGELAST -34.12 (-1.10σ vs μ)55.4927.750.00-27.75-55.49μ = -6.8016.7616.7616.7616.769.749.7419.1019.1019.1019.10-10.60-10.600.000.0011.7411.740.000.00-15.87-15.8725.7625.760.000.009.069.06-29.55-29.55-55.49-55.49-36.74-36.74-45.68-45.68-29.22-29.22-34.12-34.12v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -34.117 · range [-55.49, 25.76] · μ -6.803 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=123.6090 · σ=87.4221 · range [46.0109, 274.8036] · R²=0.582▲ RISING +211.87%σ EXTREME 70.72%LAST 271.7383274.8036217.6054160.4073103.209146.0109μ = 123.6090max 274.8036min 46.0109dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.58μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 271.74% · range [46.01%, 274.80%] · μ 123.61% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.095 · σ=0.288CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.094 (+0.00σ vs μ)0.4570.2280.000-0.228-0.457μ = -0.095-0.429-0.429-0.333-0.333-0.457-0.457-0.358-0.358-0.258-0.2580.2130.2130.3750.3750.2610.2610.1670.1670.4080.4080.0760.076-0.375-0.375-0.339-0.339-0.216-0.2160.2110.211-0.287-0.287-0.231-0.231-0.130-0.130-0.094-0.094v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.094 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
71.5075
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.4168
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9218
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.7966
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8171
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7227
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4698
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4747
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0474
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.0405
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9677
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.988 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.49e-4 · top T=2.67h (18.9%) · top-3 cover 41.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)5.7e-44.2e-42.8e-41.4e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.26e-4 · 7.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.26e-4 · 7.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.77e-4 · 9.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.77e-4 · 9.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.33e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.33e-4 · 11.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.51e-4 · 5.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.51e-4 · 5.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.82e-4 · 9.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.82e-4 · 9.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.41e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.41e-4 · 8.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.37e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.37e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.58e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.58e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.66e-4 · 18.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.66e-4 · 18.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.30e-4 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.30e-4 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.42e-4 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.42e-4 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.68e-4 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.68e-4 · 5.6% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=8.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 18.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.991e-3

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 1.590pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.89ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0533 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
-0.202pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
1.590pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
7.79pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
3.89pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0533
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
5.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 2.82pp · ES₉₅ 3.48pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.202pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.85pp · unique ratio 0.44⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
2.82pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
3.48pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
74.1pp
peak 13.5¢ → trough 3.5¢
Median step
0.85pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
7.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
13.333
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1233
$100 wins $1233
FractionalUK
12.33 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1233.33
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 7.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.384 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.384 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.74 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.11 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
100131230860218878016741770261871102220406398704050330785658991992701749398342
NO token ID
29639552893463692077085907205856889025995020025561358057659224212366391037345
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:19:01 UTC
Snapshot age
4ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:19:01 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
0f23e66304838818e4176e8e2ee96e734408eee754a69275e3e311d8fc581a0b · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,823HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,666.8HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.66

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.055000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1818.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.965
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.606
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-any-other/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0830125093.10bp0.09400010FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.13353914279.75bp0.74000035FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.58651596639.18bp0.99400053FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0113917928.91bp0.00100010PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0113917928.91bp0.00100010PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0113917928.91bp0.00100010PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.245955
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = -0.025822
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
74.07%
peak 0.14 → trough 0.04 over 4 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-any-other/risk · same metrics, JSON