POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan?

YES · live
1.5¢
NO · live
98.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3 · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.5¢
NO · live
98.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0146 · σ=0.0053 · range [0.0070, 0.0255] · R²=0.551▼ FALLING -43.14%σ EXTREME 36.06%LAST 0.01450.02550.02090.01630.01160.0070μ = 0.0146max 0.0255min 0.0070dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.55μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.45¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.5%NO 98.5%NO98.5%98.50¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.112 / 1.00 bits (11%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.5%1.5¢66.67×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.5%98.5¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=760 · μ=31.7 · σ=26.4 · CV=0.83BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140265279105μ = 3210550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 760bp moved · peak 105bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3ms
▲YES mid
1.50¢ (1.50%)
▼NO mid
98.50¢ (98.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$141.4k
≋liquidity $
$68.8k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0146 · σ=0.0053 · range [0.0070, 0.0255] · R²=0.551▼ FALLING -43.14%σ EXTREME 36.06%LAST 0.01450.02550.02090.01630.01160.0070μ = 0.0146max 0.0255min 0.0070dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.55μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.45¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9854 · σ=0.0053 · range [0.9745, 0.9930] · R²=0.551▲ RISING +1.13%σ LOW 0.53%LAST 0.98550.99300.98840.98380.97910.9745μ = 0.9854max 0.9930min 0.9745dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.55μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.55¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0040 · skew=-0.41 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.50 (mesokurtic)754201-0.97ppbin -0.97pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -0.97pp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-0.80pp2-0.64ppbin -0.64pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -0.64pp · n=2 · 28.6% peak3-0.47ppbin -0.47pp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -0.47pp · n=3 · 42.9% peak1-0.31ppbin -0.31pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -0.31pp · n=1 · 14.3% peak2-0.14ppbin -0.14pp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -0.14pp · n=2 · 28.6% peak70.02ppbin 0.02pp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 0.02pp · n=7 · 100.0% peak30.19ppbin 0.19pp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin 0.19pp · n=3 · 42.9% peak10.35ppbin 0.35pp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 0.35pp · n=1 · 14.3% peak40.52ppbin 0.52pp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 0.52pp · n=4 · 57.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.49 · kurt=-0.23 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN1.46¢95% CI: [1.25¢, 1.66¢]
σ STD DEV0.53ppσ² = 0.276 · CV = 36.06%
med MEDIAN1.35¢Q₁ 1.15¢ · Q₃ 1.80¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.85pp · IQR 0.65pp (1.349σ→0.71pp)
min 0.70¢Q₁ 1.15¢med 1.35¢Q₃ 1.80¢max 2.55¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.283approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.777mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.21
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.09
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.52
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.320within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.230lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.666persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.307significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.666
H = 0.666PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.320k=2-0.230k=3+0.037k=4+0.286k=5-0.2900+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.31)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.32 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.65very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.31)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322445
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.50¢implied prob 1.50% · decimal odds 66.67×
COUNTER · NO98.50¢implied prob 98.50% · decimal odds 1.02×
1.50¢
98.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME141.45k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY68.76k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.970 · entropy 0.112 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.5%NO 98.5%YES p̂1.5%H = 0.112 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES66.67×(2¢)NO1.02×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.112 bits (11% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · CRITICALresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
00hrs
43min
43 minutes·θ = 2.576 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.5%)
current: $0.0150 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.4hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.53% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.576 pp/day
now0.72h left
2.576 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.54h left
2.974 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.36h left
3.642 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.18h left
5.151 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.07h left
8.145 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.60% · worst -1.05% · typical |Δ| 0.32%MILD BEARISH -1.10%BEST+0.60%16hWORST-1.05%11hTYPICAL |Δ|0.32%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.10%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 3up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.11% · Σ -0.75%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.60%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.10%+0.00%-1.85%-0.05% · 1h-0.05% · 1h-0.05%1h-0.50% · 2h-0.50% · 2h-0.50%2h-0.05% · 3h-0.05% · 3h-0.05%3h-0.25% · 4h-0.25% · 4h-0.25%4h0.20% · 5h0.20% · 5h0.20%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-0.10% · 7h-0.10% · 7h-0.10%7h-0.45% · 8h-0.45% · 8h-0.45%8h0.45% · 9h0.45% · 9h0.45%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-1.05% · 11h-1.05% · 11h-1.05%11h▼ WORST0.20% · 12h0.20% · 12h0.20%12h0.40% · 13h0.40% · 13h0.40%13h-0.20% · 14h-0.20% · 14h-0.20%14h-0.45% · 15h-0.45% · 15h-0.45%15h0.60% · 16h0.60% · 16h0.60%16h★ BEST-0.60% · 17h-0.60% · 17h-0.60%17h0.55% · 18h0.55% · 18h0.55%18h0.05% · 19h0.05% · 19h0.05%19h0.10% · 20h0.10% · 20h0.10%20h-0.65% · 21h-0.65% · 21h-0.65%21h0.10% · 22h0.10% · 22h0.10%22h0.45% · 23h0.45% · 23h0.45%23h0.15% · 24h0.15% · 24h0.15%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.60%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 4BREADTH46% up · 46% down · 8% flat
11 up bars · 11 down · best 0.60% · worst -1.05% · typical |Δ| 0.317%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-1.11%)FINAL-1.11%MAX DD-1.85%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↗ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9889 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9815, 1.0000]1.00000.9815break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.85% · moderate0%-1.85%▼ TROUGH -1.85%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.85%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.85%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9889 (-1.11%) · max DD -1.85% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-12.22 · σ=20.57UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 8.57 (+1.01σ vs μ)45.8722.940.00-22.94-45.87μ = -12.22-42.32-42.32-45.87-45.87-45.61-45.61-7.30-7.305.185.18-35.22-35.22-27.94-27.94-12.13-12.13-5.62-5.62-33.10-33.10-12.78-12.78-1.62-1.628.818.81-1.55-1.557.877.871.441.44-15.15-15.1522.1822.188.578.57v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 8.565 · range [-45.87, 22.18] · μ -12.218 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=41.5009 · σ=11.5885 · range [20.8060, 57.1363] · R²=0.261▲ RISING +52.01%σ EXTREME 27.92%LAST 34.090557.136348.053738.971229.888620.8060μ = 41.5009max 57.1363min 20.8060dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.26μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 34.09% · range [20.81%, 57.14%] · μ 41.50% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.319 · σ=0.221MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.021 (+1.35σ vs μ)0.7780.3890.000-0.389-0.778μ = -0.319-0.224-0.224-0.133-0.133-0.083-0.083-0.422-0.422-0.344-0.344-0.165-0.165-0.397-0.397-0.220-0.220-0.147-0.147-0.203-0.203-0.215-0.215-0.462-0.462-0.652-0.652-0.664-0.664-0.778-0.778-0.496-0.496-0.400-0.400-0.025-0.025-0.021-0.021v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.021 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.0830
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5819
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.6378
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0852
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.7625
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0668
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7292
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0109
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.9981
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0457
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.392 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.70e-5 · top T=3.43h (27.4%) · top-3 cover 66.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)5.6e-54.2e-52.8e-51.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.17e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.17e-6 · 1.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.76e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.76e-7 · 0.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.41e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.41e-6 · 2.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.01e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.01e-5 · 5.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.38e-5 · 16.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.38e-5 · 16.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.04e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.04e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.59e-5 · 27.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.59e-5 · 27.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.75e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.75e-5 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.00e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.00e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.92e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.92e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.66e-5 · 22.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.66e-5 · 22.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.20e-5 · 5.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.20e-5 · 5.9% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.18h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 27.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.040e-4

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.415pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.02ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0143 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
-0.046pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.415pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
2.03pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
1.02pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0143
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.60pp · ES₉₅ 0.80pp · method empirical · drift-correcteddrift -0.046pp/bar · quantised: no · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.68⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
0.60pp
5th percentile of Δp
ES 95%
0.80pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
72.5pp
peak 2.5¢ → trough 0.7¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
66.667
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+6567
$100 wins $6567
FractionalUK
65.67 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$6566.67
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.112 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.112 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.06 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
56980952173594277946270778660550053979579156651153205025865456275287569976709
NO token ID
105332866295712172512995150993130384527825192365613620397673949421063590668376
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:16:38 UTC
Snapshot age
3ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:16:38 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d5717e4ed76dc8f13047142765983028e6bf46c512d8a440cd5c4a25d96e42fd · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,808HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,666HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.69

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.014500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
689.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.830
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.329
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0190493137.28bp0.06000017FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.13402182428.40bp0.91000040FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.587907395453.32bp0.99400048FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0112842217.75bp0.0020007PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0112842217.75bp0.0020007PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0112842217.75bp0.0020007PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.370809
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = -0.023522
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
72.55%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.01 over 15 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-3/risk · same metrics, JSON