POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan?

YES · live
3.7¢
NO · live
96.3¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-0 · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-0/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH23ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
3.7¢
NO · live
96.3¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0393 · σ=0.0089 · range [0.0295, 0.0570] · R²=0.638▼ FALLING -32.11%σ EXTREME 22.53%LAST 0.03700.05700.05010.04320.03640.0295μ = 0.0393max 0.0570min 0.0295dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 3.70¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 3.7%NO 96.3%NO96.3%96.30¢ · odds 1/1.04
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.228 / 1.00 bits (23%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
3.7%3.7¢27.03×▬ +0.00pp
NO
96.3%96.3¢1.04×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=605 · μ=25.2 · σ=19.4 · CV=0.77STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=12017355270μ = 257050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 605bp moved · peak 70bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
23ms
▲YES mid
3.70¢ (3.70%)
▼NO mid
96.30¢ (96.30%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$43.4k
≋liquidity $
$70.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0393 · σ=0.0089 · range [0.0295, 0.0570] · R²=0.638▼ FALLING -32.11%σ EXTREME 22.53%LAST 0.03700.05700.05010.04320.03640.0295μ = 0.0393max 0.0570min 0.0295dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 3.70¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9607 · σ=0.0089 · range [0.9430, 0.9705] · R²=0.638▲ RISING +1.85%σ LOW 0.92%LAST 0.96300.97050.96360.95670.94990.9430μ = 0.9607max 0.9705min 0.9430dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 96.30¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0006 · σ=0.0030 · skew=-0.24 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.67 (mesokurtic)432102-0.64ppbin -0.64pp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -0.64pp · n=2 · 50.0% peak-0.52pp3-0.40ppbin -0.40pp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -0.40pp · n=3 · 75.0% peak2-0.28ppbin -0.28pp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -0.28pp · n=2 · 50.0% peak3-0.16ppbin -0.16pp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -0.16pp · n=3 · 75.0% peak4-0.04ppbin -0.04pp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -0.04pp · n=4 · 100.0% peak30.08ppbin 0.08pp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 0.08pp · n=3 · 75.0% peak40.20ppbin 0.20pp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 0.20pp · n=4 · 100.0% peak10.32ppbin 0.32pp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 0.32pp · n=1 · 25.0% peak20.44ppbin 0.44pp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 0.44pp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.22 · kurt=-0.57 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.02 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.74)
μ MEAN3.93¢95% CI: [3.58¢, 4.28¢]
σ STD DEV0.89ppσ² = 0.784 · CV = 22.53%
med MEDIAN3.70¢Q₁ 3.25¢ · Q₃ 4.60¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.75pp · IQR 1.35pp (1.349σ→1.19pp)
min 2.95¢Q₁ 3.25¢med 3.70¢Q₃ 4.60¢max 5.70¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.744right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.923mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.26
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.88
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.11
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.147within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.112lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.138strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.373significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.138
H = 1.138STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.147k=2-0.112k=3+0.302k=4+0.081k=5+0.2000+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.37)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.37)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322439
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-0
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (96¢)
PRIMARY · YES3.70¢implied prob 3.70% · decimal odds 27.03×
COUNTER · NO96.30¢implied prob 96.30% · decimal odds 1.04×
3.70¢
96.30¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME43.35k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY70.65k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (96¢)|primary − counter| = 0.926 · entropy 0.228 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 3.7%NO 96.3%YES p̂3.7%H = 0.228 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES27.03×(4¢)NO1.04×(96¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.228 bits (23% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · CRITICALresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
00hrs
43min
43 minutes·θ = 4.337 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 3.7%)
NO →$0.00(P = 96.3%)
current: $0.0370 · expected return per side: $0.96 on YES hit · $0.04 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.4hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.89% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 4.337 pp/day
now0.72h left
4.337 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.54h left
5.008 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.36h left
6.134 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.18h left
8.674 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.07h left
13.715 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.50% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.25%MILD BEARISH -1.75%BEST+0.50%21hWORST-0.70%8hTYPICAL |Δ|0.25%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.75%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.35%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.65%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.75%+0.25%-2.50%0.20% · 1h0.20% · 1h0.20%1h0.05% · 2h0.05% · 2h0.05%2h-0.65% · 3h-0.65% · 3h-0.65%3h-0.20% · 4h-0.20% · 4h-0.20%4h0.15% · 5h0.15% · 5h0.15%5h-0.40% · 6h-0.40% · 6h-0.40%6h-0.20% · 7h-0.20% · 7h-0.20%7h-0.70% · 8h-0.70% · 8h-0.70%8h▼ WORST0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.15% · 10h0.15% · 10h0.15%10h-0.30% · 11h-0.30% · 11h-0.30%11h-0.40% · 12h-0.40% · 12h-0.40%12h0.10% · 13h0.10% · 13h0.10%13h-0.15% · 14h-0.15% · 14h-0.15%14h-0.05% · 15h-0.05% · 15h-0.05%15h-0.10% · 16h-0.10% · 16h-0.10%16h0.10% · 17h0.10% · 17h0.10%17h0.35% · 18h0.35% · 18h0.35%18h-0.30% · 19h-0.30% · 19h-0.30%19h0.15% · 20h0.15% · 20h0.15%20h0.50% · 21h0.50% · 21h0.50%21h★ BEST-0.45% · 22h-0.45% · 22h-0.45%22h0.40% · 23h0.40% · 23h0.40%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.65%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH42% up · 50% down · 8% flat
10 up bars · 12 down · best 0.50% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.252%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.75%)FINAL-1.75%MAX DD-2.72%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.25%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9825 · peak 1.0025 · range [0.9752, 1.0025]1.00250.9752break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0025UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.72% · moderate0%-2.72%▼ TROUGH -2.72%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -2.72%bar 4-25 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.72%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9825 (-1.75%) · max DD -2.72% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-32.75 · σ=41.83UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 12.42 (+1.08σ vs μ)97.8548.920.00-48.92-97.85μ = -32.75-39.37-39.37-66.72-66.72-97.85-97.85-70.29-70.29-46.27-46.27-75.22-75.22-75.22-75.22-53.99-53.99-42.28-42.28-46.56-46.56-78.48-78.48-41.89-41.8921.3321.33-10.39-10.3910.3910.3937.5337.5314.8414.8425.7225.7212.4212.42v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 12.419 · range [-97.85, 37.53] · μ -32.753 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=26.5310 · σ=6.3921 · range [16.7428, 36.8978] · R²=0.000▲ RISING +11.89%σ EXTREME 24.09%LAST 35.269336.897831.859126.820321.781516.7428μ = 26.5310max 36.8978min 16.7428dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 35.27% · range [16.74%, 36.90%] · μ 26.53% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.270 · σ=0.196MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.574 (-1.55σ vs μ)0.6190.3090.000-0.309-0.619μ = -0.270-0.167-0.167-0.433-0.433-0.133-0.133-0.400-0.400-0.149-0.149-0.143-0.143-0.108-0.108-0.194-0.194-0.143-0.143-0.276-0.276-0.125-0.125-0.439-0.4390.1740.174-0.239-0.239-0.480-0.480-0.233-0.233-0.457-0.457-0.619-0.619-0.574-0.574v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.574 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.3937
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8213
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.1685
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3961
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7763
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4018
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4808
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6306
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6956
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0139
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9828
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3257
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.701 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.91e-6 · top T=2.67h (32.3%) · top-3 cover 68.6%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)3.8e-52.9e-51.9e-59.6e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.12e-5 · 17.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.12e-5 · 17.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.27e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.27e-6 · 1.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.75e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.75e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.97e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.97e-6 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.70e-6 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.70e-6 · 8.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 18.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.19e-5 · 18.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.55e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.55e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.23e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 8.23e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.84e-5 · 32.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.84e-5 · 32.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.15e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.15e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.99e-7 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.99e-7 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.13e-5 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.13e-5 · 9.5% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=4.00h#3T=24.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 32.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.189e-4

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.314pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.77ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0356 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
-0.073pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.314pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.54pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.77pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0356
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
3.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.55pp · ES₉₅ 0.60pp · method empirical · drift-correcteddrift -0.073pp/bar · quantised: no · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.76⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
0.55pp
5th percentile of Δp
ES 95%
0.60pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
48.2pp
peak 5.7¢ → trough 2.9¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
3.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
27.027
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2603
$100 wins $2603
FractionalUK
26.03 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2602.70
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 3.7%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.228 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.228 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.76 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.05 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
92181703128729953842949793497726614926160660030993900306303848729699934417909
NO token ID
68650120162120220892916036690814514279244233691660033489580147547026738617533
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:16:47 UTC
Snapshot age
23ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:16:47 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
535044fa53e1f1258501076c741b6afcb5929c1c63533d3b90ca392e398f7d8d · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,806.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,666.25HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.65

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.037000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
540.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.755
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.596
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-0/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.038702459.98bp0.0390002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.11453220954.65bp0.93900041FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.547581137995.00bp0.97000045FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0320361341.63bp0.0280008FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0296891976.00bp0.00100013PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0296891976.00bp0.00100013PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.081273
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = -0.016137
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
48.25%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.03 over 14 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-3-0/risk · same metrics, JSON