POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan?

YES · live
2.1¢
NO · live
97.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-3 · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH21ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.1¢
NO · live
97.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0235 · σ=0.0092 · range [0.0090, 0.0505] · R²=0.244▼ FALLING -47.52%σ EXTREME 39.16%LAST 0.02650.05050.04010.02980.01940.0090μ = 0.0235max 0.0505min 0.0090dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.65¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.1%NO 97.9%NO97.9%97.85¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.150 / 1.00 bits (15%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.1%2.1¢46.51×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.9%97.9¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,080 · μ=45.0 · σ=58.2 · CV=1.29BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1404998146195μ = 4519550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1080bp moved · peak 195bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
21ms
▲YES mid
2.15¢ (2.15%)
▼NO mid
97.85¢ (97.85%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$46.7k
≋liquidity $
$73.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0235 · σ=0.0092 · range [0.0090, 0.0505] · R²=0.244▼ FALLING -47.52%σ EXTREME 39.16%LAST 0.02650.05050.04010.02980.01940.0090μ = 0.0235max 0.0505min 0.0090dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.65¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9765 · σ=0.0092 · range [0.9495, 0.9910] · R²=0.244▲ RISING +2.53%σ LOW 0.94%LAST 0.97350.99100.98060.97030.95990.9495μ = 0.9765max 0.9910min 0.9495dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.24μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.35¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0008 · σ=0.0068 · skew=-1.34 (left-skewed) · kurt=1.24 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1296302-1.80ppbin -1.80pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin -1.80pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak-1.49pp1-1.18ppbin -1.18pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -1.18pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak1-0.87ppbin -0.87pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -0.87pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak1-0.55ppbin -0.55pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -0.55pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak-0.25pp120.07ppbin 0.07pp · n=12 · 100.0% peakbin 0.07pp · n=12 · 100.0% peak50.38ppbin 0.38pp · n=5 · 41.7% peakbin 0.38pp · n=5 · 41.7% peak10.69ppbin 0.69pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 0.69pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak11.00ppbin 1.00pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin 1.00pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.23 · kurt=1.30 · near 14 / mid 10 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.93 intercept=-0.00LEFT-SKEWED · HEAVY NEGATIVE TAILUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.92)
μ MEAN2.35¢95% CI: [1.99¢, 2.71¢]
σ STD DEV0.92ppσ² = 0.846 · CV = 39.16%
med MEDIAN2.45¢Q₁ 2.05¢ · Q₃ 2.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 4.15pp · IQR 0.45pp (1.349σ→1.24pp)
min 0.90¢Q₁ 2.05¢med 2.45¢Q₃ 2.50¢max 5.05¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.923right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.660leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.76
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.51
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.001within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.025lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.681persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.725significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.681
H = 0.681PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.001k=2-0.025k=3-0.363k=4+0.109k=5-0.0590+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.73)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.36high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.73)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322440
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-3
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.15¢implied prob 2.15% · decimal odds 46.51×
COUNTER · NO97.85¢implied prob 97.85% · decimal odds 1.02×
2.15¢
97.85¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME46.68k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY73.35k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.957 · entropy 0.150 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.1%NO 97.9%YES p̂2.1%H = 0.150 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES46.51×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.150 bits (15% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · CRITICALresolves 2026-06-14 20:00 UTC
0days
00hrs
43min
43 minutes·θ = 4.505 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 97.9%)
current: $0.0215 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.4hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.92% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 4.505 pp/day
now0.72h left
4.505 pp/day×1.00
−25%0.54h left
5.202 pp/day×1.15
−50%0.36h left
6.371 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.18h left
9.009 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.07h left
14.245 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.15% · worst -1.95% · typical |Δ| 0.45%MILD BEARISH -2.40%BEST+1.15%14hWORST-1.95%11hTYPICAL |Δ|0.45%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.40%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 3up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.37% · Σ -2.60%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.25%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.40%+0.00%-4.15%-0.70% · 1h-0.70% · 1h-0.70%1h-1.90% · 2h-1.90% · 2h-1.90%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.35% · 8h0.35% · 8h0.35%8h0.05% · 9h0.05% · 9h0.05%9h0.05% · 10h0.05% · 10h0.05%10h-1.95% · 11h-1.95% · 11h-1.95%11h▼ WORST-0.05% · 12h-0.05% · 12h-0.05%12h0.05% · 13h0.05% · 13h0.05%13h1.15% · 14h1.15% · 14h1.15%14h★ BEST0.10% · 15h0.10% · 15h0.10%15h0.25% · 16h0.25% · 16h0.25%16h-0.75% · 17h-0.75% · 17h-0.75%17h0.20% · 18h0.20% · 18h0.20%18h0.35% · 19h0.35% · 19h0.35%19h0.25% · 20h0.25% · 20h0.25%20h-1.25% · 21h-1.25% · 21h-1.25%21h0.80% · 22h0.80% · 22h0.80%22h0.15% · 23h0.15% · 23h0.15%23h0.45% · 24h0.45% · 24h0.45%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.00%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH54% up · 25% down · 21% flat
13 up bars · 6 down · best 1.15% · worst -1.95% · typical |Δ| 0.450%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.43%)FINAL-2.43%MAX DD-4.10%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↗ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9757 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9590, 1.0000]1.00000.9590break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.10% · moderate0%-4.10%▼ TROUGH -4.10%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.10%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.10%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9757 (-2.43%) · max DD -4.10% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=1.17 · σ=30.03MIXED EDGELAST 16.48 (+0.51σ vs μ)52.5926.300.00-26.30-52.59μ = 1.17-52.59-52.59-38.21-38.2138.2138.2144.4944.4951.2651.26-27.75-27.75-28.77-28.77-27.73-27.73-10.86-10.86-10.07-10.07-6.90-6.9019.1419.1425.7625.7633.4433.4415.2815.28-22.03-22.03-8.11-8.1111.2411.2416.4816.48v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 16.484 · range [-52.59, 51.26] · μ 1.173 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=62.0747 · σ=26.0193 · range [12.8160, 95.1612] · R²=0.040▼ FALLING -7.96%σ EXTREME 41.92%LAST 66.429395.161274.574953.988633.402312.8160μ = 62.0747max 95.1612min 12.8160dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 66.43% · range [12.82%, 95.16%] · μ 62.07% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.133 · σ=0.160MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.416 (-1.77σ vs μ)0.4520.2260.000-0.226-0.452μ = -0.1330.1070.107-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.105-0.105-0.167-0.167-0.008-0.008-0.123-0.123-0.146-0.146-0.035-0.0350.0140.0140.0740.074-0.108-0.108-0.160-0.160-0.071-0.071-0.195-0.195-0.225-0.225-0.452-0.452-0.438-0.438-0.416-0.416v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.416 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
10.6149
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0050
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.4202
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4921
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.7958
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0034
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.6675
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5045
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4262
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0659
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4357
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6630
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.867 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.69e-5 · top T=4.80h (31.8%) · top-3 cover 68.3%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)2.2e-41.6e-41.1e-45.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.73e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.73e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.64e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.64e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.23e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.23e-4 · 18.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.29e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.29e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.17e-4 · 31.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.17e-4 · 31.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.03e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.03e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.76e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.76e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.91e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.91e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.97e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.97e-5 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.85e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.85e-5 · 7.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.24e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.24e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.26e-4 · 18.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.26e-4 · 18.4% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=2.00h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 31.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.833e-4

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.734pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.80ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0258 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
-0.100pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.734pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
3.60pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
1.80pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0258
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.6¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.70pp · ES₉₅ 1.82pp · method empirical · drift-correcteddrift -0.100pp/bar · quantised: no · median step 0.15pp · unique ratio 0.68⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
1.70pp
5th percentile of Δp
ES 95%
1.82pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
82.2pp
peak 5.1¢ → trough 0.9¢
Median step
0.15pp
price bucket granularity
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
46.512
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+4551
$100 wins $4551
FractionalUK
45.51 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$4551.16
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.150 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.150 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.54 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
34378132248230891083307008825454261497639943267735309453153912082499535056242
NO token ID
28428642088842579213589106379235127206244344755819183293510841589664260893168
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:16:58 UTC
Snapshot age
21ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:16:58 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
97ad81287d455d0f978ef2df308c6c84f93e214f2b3a840b893dd0deb2ee0027 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,817HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,666.2HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.67

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.026500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2641.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.874
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.500
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0300001320.75bp0.0300001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.13132439556.15bp0.79900039FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.587663211759.68bp0.99500053FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0195002641.70bp0.00100010PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0195002641.70bp0.00100010PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0195002641.70bp0.00100010PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.372865
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = -0.026868
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
82.18%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.01 over 12 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-1-3/risk · same metrics, JSON