POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · NETHERLANDS VS. JAPAN - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan?

YES · live
0.7¢
NO · live
99.3¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-3 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
62.80%
max drawdown
48.15%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
20.46%
RMS drawdown
pain index
16.93%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.07%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
48.15%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.13
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.13
upside/downside
roll spread
87.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
135
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH12ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.7¢
NO · live
99.3¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0169 · σ=0.0061 · range [0.0080, 0.0245] · R²=0.693▼ FALLING -61.22%σ EXTREME 35.88%LAST 0.00950.02450.02040.01630.01210.0080μ = 0.0169max 0.0245min 0.0080dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.95¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.7%NO 99.3%NO99.3%99.30¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.060 / 1.00 bits (6%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.7%0.7¢142.86×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.3%99.3¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=430 · μ=17.9 · σ=21.9 · CV=1.22BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=15023456890μ = 189050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 430bp moved · peak 90bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
12ms
▲YES mid
0.70¢ (0.70%)
▼NO mid
99.30¢ (99.30%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$44.0k
≋liquidity $
$9.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0169 · σ=0.0061 · range [0.0080, 0.0245] · R²=0.693▼ FALLING -61.22%σ EXTREME 35.88%LAST 0.00950.02450.02040.01630.01210.0080μ = 0.0169max 0.0245min 0.0080dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.95¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9831 · σ=0.0061 · range [0.9755, 0.9920] · R²=0.693▲ RISING +1.54%σ LOW 0.62%LAST 0.99050.99200.98790.98380.97960.9755μ = 0.9831max 0.9920min 0.9755dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.69μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.05¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0025 · skew=-1.18 (left-skewed) · kurt=2.09 (leptokurtic (fat tails))864201-0.83ppbin -0.83pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -0.83pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-0.69pp1-0.55ppbin -0.55pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin -0.55pp · n=1 · 12.5% peak-0.41pp3-0.27ppbin -0.27pp · n=3 · 37.5% peakbin -0.27pp · n=3 · 37.5% peak4-0.13ppbin -0.13pp · n=4 · 50.0% peakbin -0.13pp · n=4 · 50.0% peak80.01ppbin 0.01pp · n=8 · 100.0% peakbin 0.01pp · n=8 · 100.0% peak60.15ppbin 0.15pp · n=6 · 75.0% peakbin 0.15pp · n=6 · 75.0% peak0.29pp10.43ppbin 0.43pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakbin 0.43pp · n=1 · 12.5% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.09 · kurt=2.32 · near 16 / mid 7 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.82)
μ MEAN1.69¢95% CI: [1.45¢, 1.93¢]
σ STD DEV0.61ppσ² = 0.368 · CV = 35.88%
med MEDIAN1.50¢Q₁ 1.10¢ · Q₃ 2.30¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.65pp · IQR 1.20pp (1.349σ→0.82pp)
min 0.80¢Q₁ 1.10¢med 1.50¢Q₃ 2.30¢max 2.45¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.082approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.824platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.31
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.68
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.72
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.097within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.107lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.612persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-7.201significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.612
H = 0.612PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.097k=2+0.107k=3-0.080k=4-0.157k=5-0.2470+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.20)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.32moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=7.20)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322436
SLUGfifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-3
CATEGORYNetherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.70¢implied prob 0.70% · decimal odds 142.86×
COUNTER · NO99.30¢implied prob 99.30% · decimal odds 1.01×
0.70¢
99.30¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME44.03k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY9.50k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.986 · entropy 0.060 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.7%NO 99.3%YES p̂0.7%H = 0.060 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES142.86×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.060 bits (6% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.50% · worst -0.90% · typical |Δ| 0.18%BEARISH SESSION -1.50%BEST+0.50%21hWORST-0.90%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.18%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.30%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.16% · Σ -1.25%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.20%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.50%+0.00%-1.65%-0.10% · 1h-0.10% · 1h-0.10%1h-0.05% · 2h-0.05% · 2h-0.05%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.15% · 6h-0.15% · 6h-0.15%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.20% · 8h0.20% · 8h0.20%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-0.15% · 10h-0.15% · 10h-0.15%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.90% · 12h-0.90% · 12h-0.90%12h▼ WORST-0.20% · 13h-0.20% · 13h-0.20%13h-0.30% · 14h-0.30% · 14h-0.30%14h0.10% · 15h0.10% · 15h0.10%15h0.10% · 16h0.10% · 16h0.10%16h0.20% · 17h0.20% · 17h0.20%17h0.10% · 18h0.10% · 18h0.10%18h0.20% · 19h0.20% · 19h0.20%19h-0.60% · 20h-0.60% · 20h-0.60%20h0.50% · 21h0.50% · 21h0.50%21h★ BEST0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h-0.30% · 23h-0.30% · 23h-0.30%23h-0.15% · 24h-0.15% · 24h-0.15%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.20%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 3BREADTH29% up · 42% down · 29% flat
7 up bars · 10 down · best 0.50% · worst -0.90% · typical |Δ| 0.179%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-1.50%)FINAL-1.50%MAX DD-1.64%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9850 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9836, 1.0000]1.00000.9836break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.64% · moderate0%-1.64%▼ TROUGH -1.64%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.64%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.64%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9850 (-1.50%) · max DD -1.64% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −12 (32% positive) · μ=-19.88 · σ=32.77UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -14.17 (+0.17σ vs μ)73.9937.000.00-37.00-73.99μ = -19.88-73.99-73.99-51.52-51.527.007.007.007.00-12.08-12.08-12.08-12.08-34.19-34.19-42.90-42.90-72.11-72.11-64.13-64.13-49.33-49.33-38.21-38.210.000.0033.5133.515.105.1021.3321.3317.0017.00-4.03-4.03-14.17-14.17v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -14.172 · range [-73.99, 33.51] · μ -19.885 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=24.8624 · σ=12.1541 · range [5.6675, 38.2099] · R²=0.518▲ RISING +509.13%σ EXTREME 48.89%LAST 36.057338.209930.074321.938713.80315.6675μ = 24.8624max 38.2099min 5.6675dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.52μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 36.06% · range [5.67%, 38.21%] · μ 24.86% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −12 (32% positive) · μ=-0.146 · σ=0.270MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.541 (-1.47σ vs μ)0.5910.2950.000-0.295-0.591μ = -0.1460.0000.000-0.333-0.3330.0190.019-0.008-0.0080.0070.0070.0070.007-0.017-0.017-0.047-0.047-0.266-0.266-0.300-0.300-0.111-0.1110.1950.1950.4000.4000.0130.013-0.129-0.129-0.537-0.537-0.591-0.591-0.533-0.533-0.541-0.541v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.541 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
15.5556
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0004
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.5506
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6182
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1392
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7003
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.1583
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2467
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7438
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0097
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.0213
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9830
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.006 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.32e-6 · top T=2.00h (22.1%) · top-3 cover 56.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)2.2e-51.7e-51.1e-55.5e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.63e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.63e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.62e-5 · 16.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.62e-5 · 16.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.27e-6 · 7.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.27e-6 · 7.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.70e-6 · 9.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.70e-6 · 9.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.46e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.46e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.33e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.33e-6 · 3.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.89e-6 · 9.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.89e-6 · 9.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.53e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.53e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.81e-5 · 18.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.81e-5 · 18.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.04e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.04e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.46e-6 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.46e-6 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.20e-5 · 22.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.20e-5 · 22.1% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 22.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.983e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (135 bars · effective 1753297 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.047pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.12ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0070 · n = 135✓ n = 135
μ per bar
-0.005pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.047pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.23pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.12pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0070
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.08pp · ES₉₅ 0.10pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.005pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.20pp · unique ratio 0.03⚠ low confidence · n < 200
VaR 95%
0.08pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.10pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
48.1pp
peak 1.4¢ → trough 0.7¢
Median step
0.20pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
142.857
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+14186
$100 wins $14186
FractionalUK
141.86 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$14185.71
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.7%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.060 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.060 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
7.16 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
114162661820336543843801369295048246445861434435015439414344516573795460941175
NO token ID
17872280486603725960558074859021313439966971045649900643706041140238805574205
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 20:28:23 UTC
Snapshot age
12ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 20:28:23 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
4b6ac6ba36600ca307828ae8cdcb85599133e0aa5c8b439cf9b5d10d0e2b62bc · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay65.4¢POLYMARKETWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?44¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,915HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,667.1HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.42

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.009500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1052.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.819
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.883
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.105569101125.31bp0.51400014FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.518409535694.07bp0.95000025FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.896809934009.06bp0.99400032FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.008897634.81bp0.0010003PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.008897634.81bp0.0010003PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.008897634.81bp0.0010003PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 135 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
6440.60%
σ per bar = 0.048641
Mean return (annualised)
-859350.64%
μ per bar = -0.004901
Sharpe (rf=0)
-133.43
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
48.15%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 126 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14-exact-score-0-3/risk · same metrics, JSON