POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · MEXICO VS. KOREA REPUBLIC - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic?

YES · live
2.9¢
NO · live
97.1¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-mex-kr-2026-06-18-exact-score-3-2 · fresh · feed 14s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
11.13%
max drawdown
5.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.88%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.55%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
5.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.60
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.60
upside/downside
roll spread
2.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
355
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-mex-kr-2026-06-18-exact-score-3-2/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING14.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.9¢
NO · live
97.1¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0305 · σ=0.0049 · range [0.0220, 0.0355] · R²=0.544▼ FALLING -19.72%σ EXTREME 15.96%LAST 0.02850.03550.03210.02870.02540.0220μ = 0.0305max 0.0355min 0.0220dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.85¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.9%NO 97.1%NO97.1%97.10¢ · odds 1/1.03
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.189 / 1.00 bits (19%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.9%2.9¢34.48×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.1%97.1¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=250 · μ=10.4 · σ=18.8 · CV=1.81BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=14020406080μ = 108050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 250bp moved · peak 80bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
14.2s
▲YES mid
2.90¢ (2.90%)
▼NO mid
97.10¢ (97.10%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$44.4k
≋liquidity $
$33.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0305 · σ=0.0049 · range [0.0220, 0.0355] · R²=0.544▼ FALLING -19.72%σ EXTREME 15.96%LAST 0.02850.03550.03210.02870.02540.0220μ = 0.0305max 0.0355min 0.0220dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.85¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9695 · σ=0.0049 · range [0.9645, 0.9780] · R²=0.544▲ RISING +0.73%σ LOW 0.50%LAST 0.97150.97800.97460.97120.96790.9645μ = 0.9695max 0.9780min 0.9645dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.15¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0020 · skew=-2.36 (left-skewed) · kurt=5.50 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107301-0.74ppbin -0.74pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -0.74pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-0.64pp1-0.53ppbin -0.53pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -0.53pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-0.42pp-0.31pp-0.20pp4-0.09ppbin -0.09pp · n=4 · 30.8% peakbin -0.09pp · n=4 · 30.8% peak130.02ppbin 0.02pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin 0.02pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak40.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=4 · 30.8% peakbin 0.13pp · n=4 · 30.8% peak10.24ppbin 0.24pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 0.24pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.31 · kurt=5.99 · near 8 / mid 15 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.84 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.64σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.31)
μ MEAN3.05¢95% CI: [2.86¢, 3.24¢]
σ STD DEV0.49ppσ² = 0.237 · CV = 15.96%
med MEDIAN3.10¢Q₁ 2.80¢ · Q₃ 3.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.35pp · IQR 0.70pp (1.349σ→0.66pp)
min 2.20¢Q₁ 2.80¢med 3.10¢Q₃ 3.50¢max 3.55¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.464approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.314platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.94
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.78
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.030within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.012lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.944strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.236significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.944
H = 0.944STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.030k=2-0.012k=3+0.335k=4-0.165k=5-0.2270+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.24)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.92very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.24)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322818
SLUGfifwc-mex-kr-2026-06-18-exact-score-3-2
CATEGORYMexico vs. Korea Republic - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (97¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.90¢implied prob 2.90% · decimal odds 34.48×
COUNTER · NO97.10¢implied prob 97.10% · decimal odds 1.03×
2.90¢
97.10¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME44.45k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY32.96k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (97¢)|primary − counter| = 0.942 · entropy 0.189 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.9%NO 97.1%YES p̂2.9%H = 0.189 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES34.48×(3¢)NO1.03×(97¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.189 bits (19% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-19 01:00 UTC
0days
11hrs
38min
11.6 hours·θ = 2.383 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.9%)
NO →$0.00(P = 97.1%)
current: $0.0290 · expected return per side: $0.97 on YES hit · $0.03 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+5.8hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.49% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.383 pp/day
now11.63h left
2.383 pp/day×1.00
−25%8.73h left
2.751 pp/day×1.15
−50%5.82h left
3.370 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.91h left
4.765 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.16h left
7.535 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.30% · worst -0.80% · typical |Δ| 0.10%BEARISH SESSION -0.70%BEST+0.30%19hWORST-0.80%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.10%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.70%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.15% · Σ -1.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.55%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.70%+0.00%-1.35%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h-0.05% · 2h-0.05% · 2h-0.05%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h0.10% · 12h0.10% · 12h0.10%12h0.05% · 13h0.05% · 13h0.05%13h-0.80% · 14h-0.80% · 14h-0.80%14h▼ WORST-0.05% · 15h-0.05% · 15h-0.05%15h-0.10% · 16h-0.10% · 16h-0.10%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.15% · 18h0.15% · 18h0.15%18h0.30% · 19h0.30% · 19h0.30%19h★ BEST0.15% · 20h0.15% · 20h0.15%20h0.05% · 21h0.05% · 21h0.05%21h0.10% · 22h0.10% · 22h0.10%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.55%)RUNSup max 5 · down max 3BREADTH29% up · 25% down · 46% flat
7 up bars · 6 down · best 0.30% · worst -0.80% · typical |Δ| 0.104%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.70%)FINAL-0.70%MAX DD-1.35%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9930 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9865, 1.0000]1.00000.9865break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.35% · moderate0%-1.35%▼ TROUGH -1.35%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.35%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.35%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9930 (-0.70%) · max DD -1.35% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −11 (26% positive) · μ=-3.29 · σ=49.84UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 57.09 (+1.21σ vs μ)112.8456.420.00-56.42-112.84μ = -3.29-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.210.000.000.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.21-28.88-28.88-24.81-24.81-48.57-48.57-51.33-51.33-56.98-56.98-37.34-37.34-34.24-34.24-20.51-20.5146.5446.5461.5761.57112.84112.8476.8376.8357.0957.09v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 57.087 · range [-56.98, 112.84] · μ -3.286 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=17.1900 · σ=13.1410 · range [0.0000, 35.5989] · R²=0.152▲ RISING +569.33%σ EXTREME 76.45%LAST 12.787535.598926.699217.79948.89970.0000μ = 17.1900max 35.5989min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.15μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 12.79% · range [0.00%, 35.60%] · μ 17.19% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −10 (32% positive) · μ=-0.052 · σ=0.272MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.256 (+1.13σ vs μ)0.5550.2770.000-0.277-0.555μ = -0.052-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.376-0.376-0.296-0.296-0.277-0.277-0.474-0.474-0.377-0.377-0.229-0.229-0.222-0.2220.1150.1150.5550.5550.3510.3510.1050.1050.1810.1810.2560.256v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.256 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
84.4805
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.9015
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3155
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.2720
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6400
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.4354
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1512
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6254
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0203
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.4221
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6730
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.128 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.40e-6 · top T=3.00h (20.3%) · top-3 cover 51.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.1e-58.0e-65.3e-62.7e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.80e-6 · 12.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.80e-6 · 12.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.74e-6 · 18.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.74e-6 · 18.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.63e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.63e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.14e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.14e-6 · 2.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.03e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.03e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.19e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.19e-6 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.57e-6 · 12.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.57e-6 · 12.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.07e-5 · 20.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.07e-5 · 20.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.83e-6 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.83e-6 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.51e-6 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.51e-6 · 10.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.52e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.52e-6 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-7 · 0.3% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=24.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.00h (freq 0.333) · concentrates 20.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.281e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (355 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.5 d · σ/bar 0.008pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.03ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0282 · n = 355✓ n = 355
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.008pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.04pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.03pp
σ × √11.634261388888888
Terminal variancebinary
0.0282
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.9¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 355
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.02pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
5.0pp
peak 3.0¢ → trough 2.9¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
34.483
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+3348
$100 wins $3348
FractionalUK
33.48 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$3348.28
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.9%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.189 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.189 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.11 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.04 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
39823655466597626876752983328229153802353813428429926997769324524751533993110
NO token ID
22494450369104370002687013525496853202378542541958690165597188443710309901069
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 13:21:42 UTC
Snapshot age
14.2s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 13:21:56 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
72009eb0039bf0c900d484228f934465e129eb190d2187faf9fea924c45cc339 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Mexico vs. Korea Republic - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.028500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
350.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.407
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.392
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-mex-kr-2026-06-18-exact-score-3-2/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0486947085.72bp0.10300024FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.19483958364.45bp0.37400047FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.461446151911.04bp0.99000085FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0031638890.34bp0.00100018PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0031638890.34bp0.00100018PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0031638890.34bp0.00100018PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 355 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
384.75%
σ per bar = 0.002906
Mean return (annualised)
-16788.02%
μ per bar = -0.000096
Sharpe (rf=0)
-43.63
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
5.00%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 104 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-mex-kr-2026-06-18-exact-score-3-2/risk · same metrics, JSON