POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · MEXICO VS. KOREA REPUBLIC - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic?

YES · live
2.5¢
NO · live
97.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-mex-kr-2026-06-18-exact-score-1-3 · fresh · feed 17s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
38.10%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
18.9 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
251
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-mex-kr-2026-06-18-exact-score-1-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING17.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.5¢
NO · live
97.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0212 · σ=0.0021 · range [0.0155, 0.0245] · R²=0.100▲ RISING +8.89%σ HIGH 9.76%LAST 0.02450.02450.02220.02000.01780.0155μ = 0.0212max 0.0245min 0.0155dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.45¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.5%NO 97.5%NO97.5%97.55¢ · odds 1/1.03
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.166 / 1.00 bits (17%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.5%2.5¢40.82×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.5%97.5¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=190 · μ=7.9 · σ=14.1 · CV=1.79BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=16013253850μ = 85050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 190bp moved · peak 50bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
17.4s
▲YES mid
2.45¢ (2.45%)
▼NO mid
97.55¢ (97.55%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$25.0k
≋liquidity $
$112.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0212 · σ=0.0021 · range [0.0155, 0.0245] · R²=0.100▲ RISING +8.89%σ HIGH 9.76%LAST 0.02450.02450.02220.02000.01780.0155μ = 0.0212max 0.0245min 0.0155dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.45¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9788 · σ=0.0021 · range [0.9755, 0.9845] · R²=0.100▼ FALLING -0.20%σ LOW 0.21%LAST 0.97550.98450.98230.98000.97780.9755μ = 0.9788max 0.9845min 0.9755dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.55¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0003 · σ=0.0015 · skew=0.55 (right-skewed) · kurt=2.63 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118402-0.31ppbin -0.31pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin -0.31pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak-0.22pp-0.14pp4-0.05ppbin -0.05pp · n=4 · 26.7% peakbin -0.05pp · n=4 · 26.7% peak150.03ppbin 0.03pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin 0.03pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak10.12ppbin 0.12pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 0.12pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak0.20pp0.29pp10.37ppbin 0.37pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 0.37pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak10.46ppbin 0.46pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 0.46pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.86 · kurt=3.34 · near 6 / mid 17 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.87 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-0.74)
μ MEAN2.12¢95% CI: [2.04¢, 2.20¢]
σ STD DEV0.21ppσ² = 0.043 · CV = 9.76%
med MEDIAN2.20¢Q₁ 1.90¢ · Q₃ 2.25¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.90pp · IQR 0.35pp (1.349σ→0.28pp)
min 1.55¢Q₁ 1.90¢med 2.20¢Q₃ 2.25¢max 2.45¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.744left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.214mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.41
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.80
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.36
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.059within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.182lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.587persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.601fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.587
H = 0.587PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.059k=2-0.182k=3-0.050k=4-0.030k=5+0.0600+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.60)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.23moderate · 1-step ahead inferrable|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.60)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322814
SLUGfifwc-mex-kr-2026-06-18-exact-score-1-3
CATEGORYMexico vs. Korea Republic - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.45¢implied prob 2.45% · decimal odds 40.82×
COUNTER · NO97.55¢implied prob 97.55% · decimal odds 1.03×
2.45¢
97.55¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME24.96k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY111.97k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.951 · entropy 0.166 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.5%NO 97.5%YES p̂2.5%H = 0.166 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES40.82×(2¢)NO1.03×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.166 bits (17% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-19 01:00 UTC
0days
11hrs
38min
11.6 hours·θ = 1.012 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 97.5%)
current: $0.0245 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+5.8hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.21% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.012 pp/day
now11.63h left
1.012 pp/day×1.00
−25%8.73h left
1.168 pp/day×1.15
−50%5.82h left
1.431 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.91h left
2.023 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.16h left
3.199 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.50% · worst -0.35% · typical |Δ| 0.08%MILD BULLISH +0.20%BEST+0.50%23hWORST-0.35%15hTYPICAL |Δ|0.08%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.20%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.35%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.60%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.20%+0.20%-0.70%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h-0.05% · 2h-0.05% · 2h-0.05%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-0.05% · 4h-0.05% · 4h-0.05%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.10% · 6h0.10% · 6h0.10%6h-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.05% · 12h0.05% · 12h0.05%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-0.05% · 14h-0.05% · 14h-0.05%14h-0.35% · 15h-0.35% · 15h-0.35%15h▼ WORST-0.30% · 16h-0.30% · 16h-0.30%16h0.35% · 17h0.35% · 17h0.35%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.05% · 22h0.05% · 22h0.05%22h0.50% · 23h0.50% · 23h0.50%23h★ BEST0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.60%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH21% up · 25% down · 54% flat
5 up bars · 6 down · best 0.50% · worst -0.35% · typical |Δ| 0.079%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.20%FINAL+0.20%MAX DD-0.70%RECOVERYFULLY RECOVEREDMAX RUN-UP+0.20%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0020 · peak 1.0020 · range [0.9930, 1.0020]1.00200.9930break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0020UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.70% · shallow0%-0.70%▼ TROUGH -0.70%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.70%bar 3-23 · 21 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.70%)RECOVERYfully recoveredTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0020 (0.20%) · max DD -0.70% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −7 (37% positive) · μ=0.72 · σ=28.16MIXED EDGELAST 42.68 (+1.49σ vs μ)59.1229.560.00-29.56-59.12μ = 0.720.000.00-13.34-13.340.000.000.000.0015.8715.8715.8715.870.000.0038.2138.210.000.00-37.31-37.31-59.12-59.12-18.36-18.36-21.68-21.68-21.68-21.68-18.50-18.503.793.7944.4944.4942.6842.6842.6842.68v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 42.676 · range [-59.12, 44.49] · μ 0.715 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=12.2287 · σ=8.3976 · range [1.9105, 23.8621] · R²=0.604▲ RISING +267.05%σ EXTREME 68.67%LAST 18.816223.862118.374212.88637.39841.9105μ = 12.2287max 23.8621min 1.9105dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 18.82% · range [1.91%, 23.86%] · μ 12.23% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −12 (21% positive) · μ=-0.113 · σ=0.239MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.167 (-0.23σ vs μ)0.5090.2550.000-0.255-0.509μ = -0.1130.0000.000-0.272-0.272-0.333-0.333-0.333-0.333-0.454-0.454-0.385-0.3850.0000.000-0.233-0.2330.0000.0000.1320.1320.4950.495-0.062-0.062-0.020-0.020-0.011-0.0110.0000.000-0.509-0.509-0.045-0.0450.0590.059-0.167-0.167v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.167 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
23.2114
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.2515
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9386
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7171
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4299
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.2916
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7706
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (6 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2559
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2592
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.3251
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7451
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.901 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.62e-6 · top T=6.00h (20.9%) · top-3 cover 49.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)6.6e-64.9e-63.3e-61.6e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.48e-6 · 7.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.48e-6 · 7.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.20e-6 · 10.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.20e-6 · 10.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.37e-9 · 0.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 4.37e-9 · 0.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.57e-6 · 20.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 6.57e-6 · 20.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.55e-6 · 14.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.55e-6 · 14.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.71e-7 · 2.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.71e-7 · 2.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.80e-6 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.80e-6 · 8.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.45e-6 · 14.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.45e-6 · 14.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.04e-6 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.04e-6 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.69e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.69e-8 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.50e-6 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.50e-6 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.04e-6 · 6.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.04e-6 · 6.5% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 20.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.144e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (251 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.5 d · σ/bar 0.029pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.10ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0239 · n = 251✓ n = 251
μ per bar
+0.002pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.029pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.14pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.10pp
σ × √11.633396944444444
Terminal variancebinary
0.0239
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.05pp · ES₉₅ 0.06pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.002pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 251
VaR 95%
0.05pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.06pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
0.0pp
peak 1.9¢ → trough 1.9¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
40.816
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+3982
$100 wins $3982
FractionalUK
39.82 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$3981.63
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.166 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.166 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.35 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.04 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
88054221227296793020668120929198851209809934355619740840567431788573459265607
NO token ID
39615483017455884593755033660071658718494154671149641777703791931990237801938
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 13:21:42 UTC
Snapshot age
17.4s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 13:21:59 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e2daa2b776df39c710a2349459edb600e2c127110476dc69b50418a9a85811b6 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain89.3¢HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDEcuador87.1¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?53¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,321HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$72.18HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,749.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Mexico vs. Korea Republic - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.024500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2040.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.936
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.510
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-mex-kr-2026-06-18-exact-score-1-3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.05482312376.72bp0.16000027FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.24190388735.93bp0.42300038FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.395411151392.24bp0.44400043FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0048578017.48bp0.00100012PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0048578017.48bp0.00100012PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0048578017.48bp0.00100012PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 251 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1759.13%
σ per bar = 0.013286
Mean return (annualised)
178269.51%
μ per bar = 0.001017
Sharpe (rf=0)
101.34
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.00%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 0 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-mex-kr-2026-06-18-exact-score-1-3/risk · same metrics, JSON