POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPAIN VS. CABO VERDE
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
7.0¢
93.0¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-draw · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
7.04%
max drawdown
1.44%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.51%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.29%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.87%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.75
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.75
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1681
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-draw/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
7.0¢
NO · live
93.0¢
25 ticks · last 6.95¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.364 / 1.00 bits (36%) · informative — one side favoured
YES7.0%7.0¢14.39×▬ +0.00pp
NO93.0%93.0¢1.07×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 70bp moved · peak 15bp · n=24 ticks
18ms
6.95¢ (6.95%)
93.05¢ (93.05%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$39.5k
$402.6k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 6.95¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 93.05¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.24)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.163approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.240platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.30 + ADF rejected
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.914STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
6.95¢
93.05¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES14.39×(7¢)NO1.07×(93¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.364 bits (36% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · MEDIUMresolves 2026-06-15 16:00 UTC
1days
01hrs
25min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.0695 · expected return per side: $0.93 on YES hit · $0.07 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.583 pp/day
now1.06d left0.583 pp/day×1.00
−25%19.07h left0.673 pp/day×1.15
−50%12.72h left0.824 pp/day×1.41
−75%6.36h left1.165 pp/day×2.00
−90%2.54h left1.842 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
6 up bars · 4 down · best 0.15% · worst -0.05% · typical |Δ| 0.029%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.0030 (0.30%) · max DD -0.10% · time-under-water 17/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 30.208 · range [-38.21, 66.72] · μ 25.102 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 4.83% · range [1.91%, 5.73%] · μ 4.82% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.708 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀*H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
8.7157
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0128
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
3.1042
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6865
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-0.6555
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8499
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
0.1405
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8883
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀**H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.8486
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0054
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
-1.4418
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1493
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 21.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.146e-6
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1681 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 1.1 d · σ/bar 0.005pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.03ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0647 · n = 1681✓ n = 1681
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.005pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.03pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move1d
0.03pp
σ × √25.432190000000002
Terminal variancebinary
0.0647
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
7.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 1681
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
1.4pp
peak 7.0¢ → trough 6.9¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
7.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
14.388
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1339
$100 wins $1339
FractionalUK
13.39 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1338.85
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.364 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.364 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.85 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.10 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
83072215710101175871081563765894926731657038656927257285040774204247563097609- NO token ID
73473441294695490078665625988041105196042883387447724791485322875037171038163- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-14 14:34:04 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 18ms
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-14 14:34:04 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
47f0edffb5688fb1cf221be28f278bde51963ccfc7fc3632dccbc687a4d5893d· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
HL PREDGermany94.3¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,054HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.1HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.04
Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Spain vs. Cabo Verde
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.069500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
143.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.104
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.223
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-draw/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.073799 | 618.58bp | 0.075000 | 5 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.083016 | 1944.76bp | 0.100000 | 23 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.184290 | 16516.61bp | 0.777000 | 62 | FILLED |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.067995 | 216.48bp | 0.066000 | 4 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.046653 | 3287.28bp | 0.020000 | 39 | FILLED |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.026462 | 6192.48bp | 0.001000 | 50 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 1,681 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
102.43%
σ per bar = 0.000774
Mean return (annualised)
2276.59%
μ per bar = 0.000013
Sharpe (rf=0)
22.23
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.44%
peak 0.07 → trough 0.07 over 50 bars
/api/asset/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-draw/risk · same metrics, JSON