TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “spain · cabo · verde” (5 markets)
Top terms: spaincaboverde0615markets
- Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?3.4¢ YES · $105.4k 24h
- ★ Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?7.2¢ YES · $41.5k 24h
- Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?89.5¢ YES · $203.7k 24h
- Spread: Spain (-2.5)50.5¢ YES · $48.9k 24h
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.549.5¢ YES · $45.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (4 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.380 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.246 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.713 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.684 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-draw · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
10.17%
max drawdown
1.44%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.49%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.27%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.87%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
2.60
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
2.60
upside/downside
roll spread
0.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1947
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-draw/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →