POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPAIN VS. CABO VERDE

Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?

YES · live

3.4¢

NO · live

96.7¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-cvi · fresh · feed 0s old

24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.00%

realized vol (ann.)

9.13%

max drawdown

5.63%

sharpe

—

ulcer index

2.05%

RMS drawdown

pain index

1.23%

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

0.00%

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

3.29%

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

1.33

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

1.33

upside/downside

roll spread

0.3 bps

implied (price-only)

bars used

2000

store

spread

—

24h Δ

0.00%

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-cvi/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH12ms⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

YES · live

3.4¢

NO · live

96.7¢

YES price · live 24h

25 ticks · last 3.35¢

YES / NO split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.212 / 1.00 bits (21%) · informative — one side favoured

YES

3.4%3.4¢29.85×▬ +0.00pp

96.7%96.7¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp

Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp

Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live

Σ 70bp moved · peak 25bp · n=24 ticks

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

12ms

▲YES mid

3.35¢ (3.35%)

▼NO mid

96.65¢ (96.65%)

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

⚖arb gap

0.000pp

$24h vol $

$105.4k

≋liquidity $

$495.0k

◳history points

25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid

25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 3.35¢

NO price · CLOB mid

25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 96.65¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments

n=24

Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)

reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED

μ MEAN3.30¢95% CI: [3.27¢, 3.33¢]

σ STD DEV0.09ppσ² = 75.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.62%

med MEDIAN3.35¢Q₁ 3.25¢ · Q₃ 3.35¢

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.35pp · IQR 0.10pp (1.349σ→0.12pp)

SKEWNESS · G₁-0.277approximately symmetric

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.333mesokurtic · normal-like

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.58

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.17

range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.04

μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejected

ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.326within white-noise band

ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.087lag-2 not significant

H · HURST EXPONENT0.784strongly persistent

OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.440fails 5% test

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.784

H = 0.784STRONGLY PERSISTENT

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.44)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.33 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 0.89very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.44)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity

MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

MARKET ID1897072

SLUGfifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-cvi

CATEGORYSpain vs. Cabo Verde

TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (97¢)

PRIMARY · YES3.35¢implied prob 3.35% · decimal odds 29.85×

COUNTER · NO96.65¢implied prob 96.65% · decimal odds 1.03×

3.35¢

96.65¢

Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

0%50%100% · target110%

Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp

24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP

24H VOLUME105.36k USD 24h

LIQUIDITY495.04k USD

MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient

PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (97¢)|primary − counter| = 0.933 · entropy 0.212 bits

LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin

Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage

FAIR MARKET · no edge

Probability scale (YES)

0%25%50%
fair75%100%

Implied decimal odds

YES29.85×(3¢)NO1.03×(97¢)

Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = -0.00%

K* full

-0.00%

½K half

-0.00%

¼K quarter

-0.00%

Entropy H(p̂) = 0.212 bits (21% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured

0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)

Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding

K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection

⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-15 16:00 UTC

0days

23hrs

54min

YES →$1.00(P = 3.4%)

NO →$0.00(P = 96.7%)

current: $0.0335 · expected return per side: $0.97 on YES hit · $0.03 on NO hit

Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.424 pp/day

now23.91h left

0.424 pp/day×1.00

−25%17.93h left

0.490 pp/day×1.15

−50%11.96h left

0.600 pp/day×1.41

−75%5.98h left

0.849 pp/day×2.00

−90%2.39h left

1.342 pp/day×3.16

θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down

2 up bars · 3 down · best 0.25% · worst -0.15% · typical |Δ| 0.029%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 1.0000 (-0.00%) · max DD -0.20% · time-under-water 12/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest 12.083 · range [-60.42, 53.49] · μ -8.032 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

-1.2887

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.1975

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 24.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.938e-6

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3797 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 1.0 d · σ/bar 0.005pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.03ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0324 · n = 3797✓ n = 3797

μ per bar

+0.000pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.005pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.03pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move1d

0.03pp

σ × √23.910691944444444

Terminal variancebinary

0.0324

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

3.4¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3797

VaR 95%

0.01pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.01pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

6.0pp

peak 3.4¢ → trough 3.1¢

Median step

0.10pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

3.4%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

29.851

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+2885

$100 wins $2885

FractionalUK

28.85 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$2885.07

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.212 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.212 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

4.90 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.05 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot): gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history): clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID: 85135836978485179530031184162395126176783303519695757365796392230161124240788
NO token ID: 113403530567138533647502570248479720592349088370966223613082930982224615009933
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 16:05:21 UTC
Snapshot age: 12ms
History points: 25 CLOB mids
Page rendered: 2026-06-14 16:05:21 UTC
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: e102293f7a7fafa868211c6f5658388e32d7c312870bc7d1c202fb8fe6f45cf0 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain90.0¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,001 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,662.7 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.33

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Spain vs. Cabo Verde

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES

Depth within 1bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 5bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 10bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Depth within 50bp

bid $0 · ask $0

Mid price

0.033500

(best bid + best ask) / 2

Spread

298.5bp

(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid

Imbalance (whole book)

-0.977

ask-heavy

Imbalance (top-5)

-0.089

ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-cvi/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

Side	Notional	Avg fill	Slippage	Worst fill	Levels	Status
BUY	$1.00K	0.035639	638.64bp	0.036000	3	FILLED
BUY	$10.00K	0.055249	6492.37bp	0.080000	28	FILLED
BUY	$100.00K	0.161546	38222.79bp	0.788000	73	FILLED
SELL	$1.00K	0.030852	790.55bp	0.028000	6	FILLED
SELL	$10.00K	0.016835	4974.56bp	0.001000	25	PARTIAL
SELL	$100.00K	0.016835	4974.56bp	0.001000	25	PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,797 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M

Realized vol (annualised)

206.96%

σ per bar = 0.001563

Mean return (annualised)

0.00%

μ per bar = 0.000000

Sharpe (rf=0)

0.00

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

5.97%

peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 2020 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-esp-cvi-2026-06-15-cvi/risk · same metrics, JSON