POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · ECUADOR VS. CURAÇAO - MORE MARKETS

Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5

YES · live
33.5¢
NO · live
66.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ecu-kor-2026-06-20-team-total-away-0pt5 · fresh · feed 9s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
87.85%
max drawdown
2.90%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.68%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.48%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.90%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
2.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
228
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ecu-kor-2026-06-20-team-total-away-0pt5/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
33.5¢
NO · live
66.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.3288 · σ=0.0056 · range [0.3150, 0.3400] · R²=0.345▲ RISING +1.52%σ NORMAL 1.72%LAST 0.33500.34000.33370.32750.32130.3150μ = 0.3288max 0.3400min 0.3150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 33.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 33.5%NO 66.5%NO66.5%66.50¢ · odds 1/1.50
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.920 / 1.00 bits (92%) · high uncertainty
YES
33.5%33.5¢2.99×▬ +0.00pp
NO
66.5%66.5¢1.50×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=450 · μ=18.8 · σ=35.5 · CV=1.90BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=70255075100μ = 1910050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 450bp moved · peak 100bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
9.0s
▲YES mid
33.50¢ (33.50%)
▼NO mid
66.50¢ (66.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$40.2k
≋liquidity $
$128.7k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3288 · σ=0.0056 · range [0.3150, 0.3400] · R²=0.345▲ RISING +1.52%σ NORMAL 1.72%LAST 0.33500.34000.33370.32750.32130.3150μ = 0.3288max 0.3400min 0.3150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 33.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6712 · σ=0.0056 · range [0.6600, 0.6850] · R²=0.345▼ FALLING -0.75%σ LOW 0.84%LAST 0.66500.68500.67880.67250.66630.6600μ = 0.6712max 0.6850min 0.6600dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 66.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0009 · σ=0.0036 · skew=-0.23 (symmetric) · kurt=2.04 (leptokurtic (fat tails))18149501-0.90ppbin -0.90pp · n=1 · 5.6% peakbin -0.90pp · n=1 · 5.6% peak-0.70pp2-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=2 · 11.1% peakbin -0.50pp · n=2 · 11.1% peak-0.30pp-0.10pp180.10ppbin 0.10pp · n=18 · 100.0% peakbin 0.10pp · n=18 · 100.0% peak0.30pp10.50ppbin 0.50pp · n=1 · 5.6% peakbin 0.50pp · n=1 · 5.6% peak0.70pp20.90ppbin 0.90pp · n=2 · 11.1% peakbin 0.90pp · n=2 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.43 · kurt=2.36 · near 8 / mid 14 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.85 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN32.88¢95% CI: [32.66¢, 33.10¢]
σ STD DEV0.56ppσ² = 0.318 · CV = 1.72%
med MEDIAN32.50¢Q₁ 32.50¢ · Q₃ 33.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.50pp · IQR 1.00pp (1.349σ→0.76pp)
min 31.50¢Q₁ 32.50¢med 32.50¢Q₃ 33.50¢max 34.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.046approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.440mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.67
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.76
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.43
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.340within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.131lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.655persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.477significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.655
H = 0.655PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.340k=2+0.131k=3-0.137k=4-0.006k=5-0.0060+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.48)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.34 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.65very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.48)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2481998
SLUGfifwc-ecu-kor-2026-06-20-team-total-away-0pt5
CATEGORYEcuador vs. Curaçao - More Markets
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (67¢)
PRIMARY · YES33.50¢implied prob 33.50% · decimal odds 2.99×
COUNTER · NO66.50¢implied prob 66.50% · decimal odds 1.50×
33.50¢
66.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME40.19k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY128.72k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (67¢)|primary − counter| = 0.330 · entropy 0.920 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 33.5%NO 66.5%YES p̂33.5%H = 0.920 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2.99×(34¢)NO1.50×(67¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.920 bits (92% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-21 00:00 UTC
0days
13hrs
06min
13.1 hours·θ = 2.764 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 33.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 66.5%)
current: $0.3350 · expected return per side: $0.67 on YES hit · $0.34 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+6.6hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.56% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.764 pp/day
now13.10h left
2.764 pp/day×1.00
−25%9.83h left
3.192 pp/day×1.15
−50%6.55h left
3.909 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.28h left
5.528 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.31h left
8.741 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.19%MILD BULLISH +0.50%BEST+1.00%7hWORST-1.00%6hTYPICAL |Δ|0.19%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.50%+1.00%-1.50%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-0.50% · 4h-0.50% · 4h-0.50%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-1.00% · 6h-1.00% · 6h-1.00%6h▼ WORST1.00% · 7h1.00% · 7h1.00%7h★ BEST0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h1.00% · 17h1.00% · 17h1.00%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.50% · 23h0.50% · 23h0.50%23h-0.50% · 24h-0.50% · 24h-0.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.50%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 1BREADTH13% up · 13% down · 75% flat
3 up bars · 3 down · best 1.00% · worst -1.00% · typical |Δ| 0.188%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.48%FINAL+0.48%MAX DD-1.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 13 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.99%UNDERWATER14/25 (56%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0048 · peak 1.0099 · range [0.9850, 1.0099]1.00990.9850break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0099UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.50% · moderate0%-1.50%▼ TROUGH -1.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.50%bar 5-17 · 13 bars · recovered#2 -0.50%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER56% of session · 14/25 bars
final equity 1.0048 (0.48%) · max DD -1.50% · time-under-water 14/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −4 (42% positive) · μ=11.29 · σ=26.67MIXED EDGELAST 0.00 (-0.42σ vs μ)55.9327.970.00-27.97-55.93μ = 11.29-55.93-55.93-11.74-11.74-11.74-11.74-11.74-11.740.000.000.000.0038.2138.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0038.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.210.000.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · range [-55.93, 38.21] · μ 11.291 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=34.7536 · σ=21.9349 · range [0.0000, 62.2013] · R²=0.148▼ FALLING -24.41%σ EXTREME 63.12%LAST 29.597362.201346.651031.100615.55030.0000μ = 34.7536max 62.2013min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.15μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 29.60% · range [0.00%, 62.20%] · μ 34.75% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −15 (0% positive) · μ=-0.222 · σ=0.208MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.500 (-1.34σ vs μ)0.5130.2560.000-0.256-0.513μ = -0.222-0.214-0.214-0.513-0.513-0.475-0.475-0.456-0.456-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.500-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.500-0.500v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.500 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
11.3473
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0034
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.1785
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5258
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5970
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4871
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.9129
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3613
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (3 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5060
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0403
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0989
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2718
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.666 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.91e-5 · top T=2.00h (36.8%) · top-3 cover 63.4%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)8.4e-56.3e-54.2e-52.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.27e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.27e-5 · 5.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.20e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.20e-6 · 1.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.48e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.48e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.67e-35 · 0.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.67e-35 · 0.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.17e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.17e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.64e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.64e-6 · 2.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.92e-5 · 12.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.92e-5 · 12.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.07e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.07e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.76e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.76e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.21e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.21e-6 · 4.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.44e-5 · 36.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 8.44e-5 · 36.8% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 36.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.292e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (228 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.5 d · σ/bar 0.066pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.24ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2228 · n = 228✓ n = 228
μ per bar
-0.004pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.066pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.33pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move1d
0.24pp
σ × √13.100140833333333
Terminal variancebinary
0.2228
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
33.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.11pp · ES₉₅ 0.14pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.004pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 228
VaR 95%
0.11pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.14pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
2.9pp
peak 34.5¢ → trough 33.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
33.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.985
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+199
$100 wins $199
FractionalUK
1.99 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$198.51
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 33.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.920 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.920 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.58 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.59 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
35361498051659196555879610048362944980082292987456745808639356123081315441336
NO token ID
12034491963241103501867355028426685708410117268460522140307733528241529481612
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 10:53:50 UTC
Snapshot age
9.0s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 10:53:59 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
a4c87a21d65a9f29292200ea6f20de4fa22930bb8a815a7cff53f08d2a830d72 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,623HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.94HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,727.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Ecuador vs. Curaçao - More Markets

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.335000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
298.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.242
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.016
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ecu-kor-2026-06-20-team-total-away-0pt5/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.340000149.25bp0.3400001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.346688348.89bp0.3500002FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.5413466159.57bp0.65000013FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.330000149.25bp0.3300001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.316076564.90bp0.3000004FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.1345715982.96bp0.01000029PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 228 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
258.48%
σ per bar = 0.001952
Mean return (annualised)
-22713.58%
μ per bar = -0.000130
Sharpe (rf=0)
-87.88
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.90%
peak 0.34 → trough 0.34 over 33 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ecu-kor-2026-06-20-team-total-away-0pt5/risk · same metrics, JSON