POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · ECUADOR VS. CURAÇAO

Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?

YES · live
3.9¢
NO · live
96.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ecu-kor-2026-06-20-kor · fresh · feed 13s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
20.62%
max drawdown
11.49%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
7.63%
RMS drawdown
pain index
6.61%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
11.49%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.60
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.60
upside/downside
roll spread
2.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
990
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ecu-kor-2026-06-20-kor/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING12.7s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
3.9¢
NO · live
96.2¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0395 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.0375, 0.0435] · R²=0.070▼ FALLING -2.53%σ NORMAL 3.83%LAST 0.03850.04350.04200.04050.03900.0375μ = 0.0395max 0.0435min 0.0375dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 3.85¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 3.9%NO 96.2%NO96.2%96.15¢ · odds 1/1.04
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.235 / 1.00 bits (24%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
3.9%3.9¢25.97×▬ +0.00pp
NO
96.2%96.2¢1.04×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=200 · μ=8.3 · σ=10.4 · CV=1.25BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=16010203040μ = 84050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 200bp moved · peak 40bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
12.7s
▲YES mid
3.85¢ (3.85%)
▼NO mid
96.15¢ (96.15%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$434.7k
≋liquidity $
$522.7k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0395 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.0375, 0.0435] · R²=0.070▼ FALLING -2.53%σ NORMAL 3.83%LAST 0.03850.04350.04200.04050.03900.0375μ = 0.0395max 0.0435min 0.0375dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 3.85¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9605 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.9565, 0.9625] · R²=0.070▲ RISING +0.10%σ LOW 0.16%LAST 0.96150.96250.96100.95950.95800.9565μ = 0.9605max 0.9625min 0.9565dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 96.15¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0000 · σ=0.0013 · skew=0.87 (right-skewed) · kurt=1.14 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085304-0.17ppbin -0.17pp · n=4 · 40.0% peakbin -0.17pp · n=4 · 40.0% peak2-0.11ppbin -0.11pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -0.11pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak2-0.05ppbin -0.05pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -0.05pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak100.01ppbin 0.01pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.01pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak20.07ppbin 0.07pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 0.07pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak20.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 0.13pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak0.19pp10.25ppbin 0.25pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.25pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak0.31pp10.37ppbin 0.37pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.37pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.05 · kurt=2.05 · near 14 / mid 9 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.09)
μ MEAN3.95¢95% CI: [3.89¢, 4.01¢]
σ STD DEV0.15ppσ² = 0.023 · CV = 3.83%
med MEDIAN3.95¢Q₁ 3.85¢ · Q₃ 3.95¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.60pp · IQR 0.10pp (1.349σ→0.20pp)
min 3.75¢Q₁ 3.85¢med 3.95¢Q₃ 3.95¢max 4.35¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.090right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.749mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.00
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.04
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.96
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.315within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.307lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.917strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.311fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.917
H = 0.917STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.315k=2+0.307k=3-0.205k=4-0.064k=5-0.2130+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.31)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.31 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.31)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1897152
SLUGfifwc-ecu-kor-2026-06-20-kor
CATEGORYEcuador vs. Curaçao
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (96¢)
PRIMARY · YES3.85¢implied prob 3.85% · decimal odds 25.97×
COUNTER · NO96.15¢implied prob 96.15% · decimal odds 1.04×
3.85¢
96.15¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME434.74k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY522.73k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (96¢)|primary − counter| = 0.923 · entropy 0.235 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 3.9%NO 96.2%YES p̂3.9%H = 0.235 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES25.97×(4¢)NO1.04×(96¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.235 bits (24% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-21 00:00 UTC
0days
12hrs
08min
12.1 hours·θ = 0.742 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 3.9%)
NO →$0.00(P = 96.2%)
current: $0.0385 · expected return per side: $0.96 on YES hit · $0.04 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+6.1hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.15% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.742 pp/day
now12.13h left
0.742 pp/day×1.00
−25%9.10h left
0.856 pp/day×1.15
−50%6.07h left
1.049 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.03h left
1.483 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.21h left
2.345 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.40% · worst -0.20% · typical |Δ| 0.08%MILD BEARISH -0.10%BEST+0.40%16hWORST-0.20%15hTYPICAL |Δ|0.08%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.10%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.15%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.10%+0.40%-0.20%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.05% · 6h-0.05% · 6h-0.05%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-0.15% · 8h-0.15% · 8h-0.15%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.10% · 10h0.10% · 10h0.10%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.05% · 12h0.05% · 12h0.05%12h-0.05% · 13h-0.05% · 13h-0.05%13h0.10% · 14h0.10% · 14h0.10%14h-0.20% · 15h-0.20% · 15h-0.20%15h▼ WORST0.40% · 16h0.40% · 16h0.40%16h★ BEST-0.10% · 17h-0.10% · 17h-0.10%17h0.25% · 18h0.25% · 18h0.25%18h0.05% · 19h0.05% · 19h0.05%19h-0.20% · 20h-0.20% · 20h-0.20%20h-0.20% · 21h-0.20% · 21h-0.20%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH25% up · 33% down · 42% flat
6 up bars · 8 down · best 0.40% · worst -0.20% · typical |Δ| 0.083%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.10%)FINAL-0.10%MAX DD-0.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 5 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.40%UNDERWATER16/25 (64%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9990 · peak 1.0040 · range [0.9980, 1.0040]1.00400.9980break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0040UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.50% · shallow0%-0.50%▼ TROUGH -0.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -0.50%bar 21-25 · 5 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.20%bar 7-16 · 10 bars · recovered#3 -0.10%bar 18-18 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 5 barsTIME UNDER WATER64% of session · 16/25 bars
final equity 0.9990 (-0.10%) · max DD -0.50% · time-under-water 16/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −10 (37% positive) · μ=-7.89 · σ=32.02MIXED EDGELAST -64.76 (-1.78σ vs μ)64.7632.380.00-32.38-64.76μ = -7.89-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-51.52-51.52-51.52-51.52-19.10-19.10-19.10-19.100.000.00-9.06-9.0651.5251.520.000.0023.4023.4014.9314.9327.4527.4535.3635.3612.5612.5612.5612.56-18.11-18.11-18.11-18.11-64.76-64.76v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -64.758 · range [-64.76, 51.52] · μ -7.891 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=12.1969 · σ=7.2612 · range [1.9105, 23.2422] · R²=0.607▲ RISING +431.04%σ EXTREME 59.53%LAST 10.145423.242217.909312.57647.24341.9105μ = 12.1969max 23.2422min 1.9105dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.61μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 10.15% · range [1.91%, 23.24%] · μ 12.20% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −16 (11% positive) · μ=-0.283 · σ=0.304MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.223 (+0.20σ vs μ)0.7750.3880.000-0.388-0.775μ = -0.283-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.152-0.152-0.424-0.424-0.108-0.108-0.033-0.0330.0000.000-0.036-0.036-0.652-0.652-0.423-0.423-0.525-0.525-0.719-0.719-0.727-0.727-0.775-0.775-0.531-0.531-0.077-0.0770.0880.0880.2000.200-0.223-0.223v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.223 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
13.1769
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0014
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.2408
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1422
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2165
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2056
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6502
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5156
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2013
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3545
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.4845
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6280
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.853 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.94e-6 · top T=2.00h (21.7%) · top-3 cover 54.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)5.0e-63.8e-62.5e-61.3e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.10e-6 · 4.7% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.10e-6 · 4.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.61e-6 · 6.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.61e-6 · 6.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.06e-6 · 8.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.06e-6 · 8.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.70e-6 · 7.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.70e-6 · 7.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.57e-8 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.57e-8 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.17e-7 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.17e-7 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.96e-7 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.96e-7 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.95e-6 · 12.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.95e-6 · 12.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.23e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.23e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.04e-6 · 8.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.04e-6 · 8.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.75e-6 · 20.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.75e-6 · 20.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.04e-6 · 21.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.04e-6 · 21.7% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 21.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.325e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.5 d · σ/bar 0.009pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.03ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0370 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.009pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.05pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move1d
0.03pp
σ × √12.13397777777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.0370
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
3.9¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.02pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.02pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.02pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
11.5pp
peak 4.3¢ → trough 3.9¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
3.9%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
25.974
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2497
$100 wins $2497
FractionalUK
24.97 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2497.40
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 3.9%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.235 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.235 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.70 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.06 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
22922754856620040574706795332414925251832240378503831196222537952159137725220
NO token ID
71955494128811352036043213332791945203624417149967965416834404032684165466610
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:51:44 UTC
Snapshot age
12.7s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:51:57 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
20b5e3ca1ea45604905d5b955de0bd3e84f17ad8cb47ab3982c268336f987eec · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,734HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.24HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,729.9

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Ecuador vs. Curaçao

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.038500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
259.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.069
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.279
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ecu-kor-2026-06-20-kor/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.039972382.38bp0.0400002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0533213849.66bp0.08700027FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.16779133582.19bp0.75000076FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.037052376.17bp0.0350004FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0336151268.94bp0.0300009FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0217784343.44bp0.00100035PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
308.37%
σ per bar = 0.002329
Mean return (annualised)
-2630.68%
μ per bar = -0.000015
Sharpe (rf=0)
-8.53
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
11.49%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.04 over 746 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ecu-kor-2026-06-20-kor/risk · same metrics, JSON