POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · CZECHIA VS. SOUTH AFRICA - EXACT SCORE

Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 3 South Africa?

YES · live
1.2¢
NO · live
98.8¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-cze-rsa-2026-06-18-exact-score-2-3 · fresh · feed 17s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
18.41%
max drawdown
29.03%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
17.79%
RMS drawdown
pain index
14.71%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
27.42%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.30
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.30
upside/downside
roll spread
13.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
401
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-cze-rsa-2026-06-18-exact-score-2-3/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING16.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.2¢
NO · live
98.8¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0170 · σ=0.0022 · range [0.0120, 0.0220] · R²=0.220▼ FALLING -45.45%σ HIGH 12.79%LAST 0.01200.02200.01950.01700.01450.0120μ = 0.0170max 0.0220min 0.0120dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.20¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.2%NO 98.8%NO98.8%98.80¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.094 / 1.00 bits (9%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.2%1.2¢83.33×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.8%98.8¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=180 · μ=7.5 · σ=12.0 · CV=1.60BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=16011223445μ = 74550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 180bp moved · peak 45bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
16.9s
▲YES mid
1.20¢ (1.20%)
▼NO mid
98.80¢ (98.80%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$31.7k
≋liquidity $
$100.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0170 · σ=0.0022 · range [0.0120, 0.0220] · R²=0.220▼ FALLING -45.45%σ HIGH 12.79%LAST 0.01200.02200.01950.01700.01450.0120μ = 0.0170max 0.0220min 0.0120dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.20¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9830 · σ=0.0022 · range [0.9780, 0.9880] · R²=0.220▲ RISING +1.02%σ LOW 0.22%LAST 0.98800.98800.98550.98300.98050.9780μ = 0.9830max 0.9880min 0.9780dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.80¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0003 · σ=0.0014 · skew=-1.87 (left-skewed) · kurt=2.26 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085301-0.42ppbin -0.42pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.42pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak1-0.37ppbin -0.37pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.37pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak1-0.31ppbin -0.31pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -0.31pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak-0.26pp-0.20pp-0.15pp2-0.09ppbin -0.09pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -0.09pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak2-0.04ppbin -0.04pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -0.04pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak100.02ppbin 0.02pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.02pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak70.07ppbin 0.07pp · n=7 · 70.0% peakbin 0.07pp · n=7 · 70.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.90 · kurt=2.65 · near 8 / mid 15 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.86 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN1.70¢95% CI: [1.62¢, 1.79¢]
σ STD DEV0.22ppσ² = 0.047 · CV = 12.79%
med MEDIAN1.70¢Q₁ 1.65¢ · Q₃ 1.80¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.00pp · IQR 0.15pp (1.349σ→0.29pp)
min 1.20¢Q₁ 1.65¢med 1.70¢Q₃ 1.80¢max 2.20¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.327approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.728mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.96
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.59
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.101within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.007lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.639persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.546significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.639
H = 0.639PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.101k=2+0.007k=3+0.007k=4-0.050k=5+0.1860+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.55)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.38high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.55)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2322757
SLUGfifwc-cze-rsa-2026-06-18-exact-score-2-3
CATEGORYCzechia vs. South Africa - Exact Score
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.20¢implied prob 1.20% · decimal odds 83.33×
COUNTER · NO98.80¢implied prob 98.80% · decimal odds 1.01×
1.20¢
98.80¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME31.66k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY100.39k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.976 · entropy 0.094 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.2%NO 98.8%YES p̂1.2%H = 0.094 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES83.33×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.094 bits (9% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · VERY HIGHresolves 2026-06-18 16:00 UTC
0days
02hrs
38min
2.6 hours·θ = 1.068 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.2%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.8%)
current: $0.0120 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.3hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.22% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.068 pp/day
now2.63h left
1.068 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.98h left
1.233 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.32h left
1.510 pp/day×1.41
−75%0.66h left
2.135 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.26h left
3.376 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.10% · worst -0.45% · typical |Δ| 0.07%BEARISH SESSION -1.00%BEST+0.10%16hWORST-0.45%1hTYPICAL |Δ|0.07%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.08% · Σ -0.55%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.25%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.09% · Σ -0.70%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.00%+0.00%-1.00%-0.45% · 1h-0.45% · 1h-0.45%1h▼ WORST-0.10% · 2h-0.10% · 2h-0.10%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.05% · 6h0.05% · 6h0.05%6h-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h0.05% · 8h0.05% · 8h0.05%8h0.05% · 9h0.05% · 9h0.05%9h0.05% · 10h0.05% · 10h0.05%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.05% · 14h0.05% · 14h0.05%14h0.05% · 15h0.05% · 15h0.05%15h0.10% · 16h0.10% · 16h0.10%16h★ BEST0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.35% · 18h-0.35% · 18h-0.35%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h-0.10% · 20h-0.10% · 20h-0.10%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-0.05% · 22h-0.05% · 22h-0.05%22h-0.30% · 23h-0.30% · 23h-0.30%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.25%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 2BREADTH29% up · 29% down · 42% flat
7 up bars · 7 down · best 0.10% · worst -0.45% · typical |Δ| 0.075%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-1.00%)FINAL-1.00%MAX DD-1.00%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9900 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9900, 1.0000]1.00000.9900break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.00% · shallow0%-1.00%▼ TROUGH -1.00%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.00%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -1.00%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9900 (-1.00%) · max DD -1.00% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +10 / −9 (53% positive) · μ=13.44 · σ=56.92MIXED EDGELAST -59.86 (-1.29σ vs μ)85.4442.720.00-42.72-85.44μ = 13.44-41.89-41.89-30.21-30.2120.7220.7238.2138.2155.9355.9355.9355.9338.2138.2185.4485.4485.4485.4485.4485.4476.4276.4276.4276.42-14.31-14.31-14.31-14.31-29.02-29.02-34.94-34.94-57.09-57.09-81.12-81.12-59.86-59.86v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -59.863 · range [-81.12, 85.44] · μ 13.443 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=8.1621 · σ=5.6962 · range [2.5632, 17.4264] · R²=0.249▼ FALLING -37.02%σ EXTREME 69.79%LAST 10.975017.426413.71069.99486.27902.5632μ = 8.1621max 17.4264min 2.5632dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 10.97% · range [2.56%, 17.43%] · μ 8.16% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.102 · σ=0.308CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.355 (-0.82σ vs μ)0.7160.3580.000-0.358-0.716μ = -0.1020.1710.171-0.146-0.146-0.716-0.716-0.433-0.433-0.357-0.357-0.357-0.357-0.033-0.0330.5000.5000.1670.1670.1670.1670.3670.367-0.033-0.0330.0890.0890.0140.014-0.077-0.077-0.243-0.243-0.476-0.476-0.192-0.192-0.355-0.355v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.355 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
29.3931
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.4969
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9130
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7010
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4376
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.6690
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0951
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3294
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1308
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.5553
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5787
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.831 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.79e-6 · top T=24.00h (26.6%) · top-3 cover 55.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)5.7e-64.3e-62.9e-61.4e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.72e-6 · 26.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.72e-6 · 26.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.34e-7 · 2.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.34e-7 · 2.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.38e-6 · 6.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.38e-6 · 6.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.17e-6 · 14.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.17e-6 · 14.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.27e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.27e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.08e-7 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.08e-7 · 3.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.11e-6 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.11e-6 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.67e-7 · 0.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.67e-7 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.91e-6 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.91e-6 · 13.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.13e-6 · 14.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.13e-6 · 14.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.87e-6 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.87e-6 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.67e-7 · 3.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.67e-7 · 3.1% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 26.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.150e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (401 bars · effective 1753005 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.014pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.03ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0119 · n = 401✓ n = 401
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.014pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.07pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.03pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0119
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.2¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.02pp · ES₉₅ 0.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 401
VaR 95%
0.02pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.03pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
29.0pp
peak 1.6¢ → trough 1.1¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.2%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
83.333
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+8233
$100 wins $8233
FractionalUK
82.33 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$8233.33
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.2%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.094 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.094 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.38 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.02 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
79260720450330615483325344375768128601000308084771932558143155739735898267748
NO token ID
77051043096481875968660577268515371150657491060350745714826163559770741674893
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 13:21:42 UTC
Snapshot age
16.9s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-18 13:21:59 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
8125f6907d3c689219ea7c6827ead03354a65b20d8ec6dd1661f123cff4c3727 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain89.3¢HL PREDBrazil88.2¢HL PREDEcuador87.1¢POLYMARKETWill Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2¢POLYMARKETWill Czechia win on 2026-06-18?53¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,321HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$72.18HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,749.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Czechia vs. South Africa - Exact Score

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.012000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3333.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.896
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.280
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-cze-rsa-2026-06-18-exact-score-2-3/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.02694512454.24bp0.03200013FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.149994114994.86bp0.43000043FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.427616346346.71bp0.95000083FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0034237147.81bp0.0010008PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0034237147.81bp0.0010008PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0034237147.81bp0.0010008PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 401 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1486.05%
σ per bar = 0.011224
Mean return (annualised)
-112163.14%
μ per bar = -0.000640
Sharpe (rf=0)
-75.48
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
29.03%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.01 over 182 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-cze-rsa-2026-06-18-exact-score-2-3/risk · same metrics, JSON